1:40 Worcester
This Class 3 beginners' steeple chase at Worcester over 2m4f on good to soft ground brings together six runners, several of whom hold high-class ratings for the level. The KTB Fit scores range from 65 down to 48, highlighting a competitive but compact field where proven ability at the trip and recent form are key. Overall the numbers point to a race that will test jumping and stamina in genuinely-run conditions.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape and high confidence, the race is expected to feature a front-runner pressed by several handy types from the outset. Talk To The Man is likely to take them along, with Vicomte Le Brave and Bill Joyce racing prominently to apply pressure. This sets up a fair test where the key question will be which of the hold-up performers can time their late efforts to best effect once the early pace takes its toll.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Scorpio Rising KTB Selection65/100
Scorpio Rising arrives in excellent order having reeled off four straight wins before a narrow defeat last time out. Rated 137, he holds a high-class mark for this level and boasts an outstanding record at today's trip, winning four times from just six attempts. He has already shown he handles good to soft ground with a win from two starts. The Olly Murphy yard posts a 22% strike rate at Worcester from 169 runs, while Sean Bowen is even stronger at 23% from 462 rides here. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and drops in class, making him the clear KTB selection.
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2Vicomte Le Brave58/100
Vicomte Le Brave possesses some ability, evidenced by a win and two placed efforts from his four completed starts, though he remains lightly raced which makes him difficult to assess with certainty. He ran to a respectable level when finishing third on his only previous visit to Worcester. Recent form includes a pulled-up effort, and the drop back in trip today introduces a fresh question. Both trainer and jockey have limited data at the track, with the trainer showing a 25% strike rate from a small sample of four runs and the jockey an 11% strike rate from 186 rides. He usually races handily though that is based on limited evidence.
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3Bill Joyce57/100
Bill Joyce is a high-class performer on his day and possesses a solid win record at today's trip. He returns from a lengthy absence following a string of poor efforts that included falls and pulled-ups. This will be his first visit to Worcester. The yard records an 11% strike rate at the track from 127 runs, which adds a note of caution. He usually races prominently with high confidence in that assessment and has a win from three starts on good to soft.
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4Klimt Madrik56/100
Klimt Madrik is a high-class performer on his day who has had just four runs and retains scope to improve further. He drops back to a trip at which he has won from three starts. His latest efforts suggest he may need to settle better if he is to be seen to best effect. The trainer has had only four runs at Worcester, too small a sample to draw firm conclusions, while the jockey has an 11% strike rate from 56 rides at the track. He usually races held up with high confidence and the going remains something of an unknown given his limited experience.
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5Catch Him Derry53/100
Catch Him Derry is a high-class performer on his day with a solid record on good to soft ground that includes two wins from three starts. He drops back in trip to 2m4f which poses a fresh question after his last run over 3m. The Dan Skelton yard has a 17% strike rate at Worcester from 430 runs.
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6Talk To The Man48/100
Talk To The Man is a high-class performer with a solid recent profile and strong course connections through his trainer. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has already won over from just one attempt and also has a win on this going from two starts. The yard holds a 17% strike rate at Worcester from a large sample.
KTB verdict
Scorpio Rising stands out as the KTB selection. He brings strong recent form with four wins from his last five starts, a high-class rating of 137 for the level, and a fine record at the trip that includes four victories from six attempts. The yard and jockey both perform well at Worcester, and his hold-up style looks well suited to the expected genuinely-run pace. Main dangers are Klimt Madrik, who retains scope despite settling issues, and Bill Joyce if he can bounce back from his absence, though the latter's recent poor efforts and the yard's modest Worcester record temper enthusiasm.
KTB Selection Scorpio Rising
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 21 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Scorpio Rising | 13/8 | Bet365 |
| Vicomte Le Brave | 125/1 | Bet365 |
| Bill Joyce | 14/1 | Coral |
| Klimt Madrik | 5/2 | 7Bet |
| Catch Him Derry | 25/1 | 7Bet |
| Talk To The Man | 7/4 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 1:40 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent winning sequence entering this race?
Scorpio Rising arrives on the back of four straight wins before a narrow defeat last time.
How does the expected pace shape influence the hold-up runners?
A genuinely-run race with a front-runner pressed by several handy types will provide a fair test, allowing hold-up performers such as Scorpio Rising, Klimt Madrik and Catch Him Derry to produce their efforts late.
What concerns exist around Bill Joyce's preparation?
He returns from a lengthy absence after a string of poor efforts.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Worcester among those represented?
Cynthia Woods has a 25% strike rate at Worcester from four runs.
At what distance has Scorpio Rising been most successful?
He has already won four times at today's 2m4f trip from just six attempts.
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