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Trainer profile

Toby Lawes

332 runners in the last 5 seasons · 54 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 10 days ago 97% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2022
47–332
Wins / Runs
14.2%
Strike rate
n=332
121 (36%)
Placed
0.99
Fair A/E
n=332 · 0.85 incl. margin
−92.78
£1 level stake
n=332 at SP · −27.9%
£596k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
15.2%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 14% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99).

Deterministic profile computed from 332 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 37.8% when favourite Kevin Brogan: 12.5% from 160 Sends off the favourite in 14% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Plumpton (25%, n=36), clear of the yard's 14.2% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 10.2% (n=98, Fair A/E 0.79). Kevin Brogan rides 48% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (12.5%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well in NH Flat races (21.9%, n=32) and in Class 5 (18.7%, n=91). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 4.4% over 45 runners, 9.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.70 across 104 runners (10.6% strike, −66.21 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the bet365 Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh (Feb 2025, £22,780). The stable star of the record: Kap Auteuil (FR) — 6 wins from 31 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.2%−4.0
n=98 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −55.66
New recruits · first run for the yard
20%+5.8
n=20 · A/E 1.78 · £1 −0.17
Debutants · first career start
8%−6.2
n=25 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −14.25
First-time headgear · true-first definition
17.6%+3.4
n=17 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −5.67
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−14.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
37.8%
n=45 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +0.35
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12.5%−1.7
n=24 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −14.64
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
16.7%+2.5
n=6 · A/E 2.23 · £1 +28.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Plumpton 25% vs 14.2% · n=36
Off a break of 180+ days 4.4% vs 14.2% · n=45
In NH Flat races 21.9% vs 14.2% · n=32
In Class 5 18.7% vs 14.2% · n=91
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 10.6% vs 14.2% · n=104
Off a 31-60-day break 17.2% vs 14.2% · n=99
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 179 24 13.4% −39.20
Chase 112 16 14.3% −48.83
NH Flat 32 7 21.9% +4.25
Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft 116 16 13.8% −16.09
Good 111 16 14.4% −37.33
Soft 81 13 16% −25.61
Heavy 16 2 12.5% −5.75
Standard (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Fontwell 48 6 12.5% −19.67
Plumpton 36 9 25% −5.16
Kempton 21 4 19% −0.63
Uttoxeter 20 1 5% −18.09
Southwell 19 5 26.3% +3.00
Newbury 16 2 12.5% −1.50
Doncaster 15 2 13.3% −8.67
Huntingdon 14 3 21.4% +5.88
Lingfield 12 1 8.3% −9.12
Warwick 11 1 9.1% −6.00
Ffos Las 11 1 9.1% −6.00
Stratford 9 2 22.2% −1.80
Chepstow 9 1 11.1% −4.00
Sandown 8 0 0% −8.00
Taunton 8 2 25% +7.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 158 20 12.7% −76.11
Class 5 91 17 18.7% −11.00
Class 3 52 8 15.4% −10.24
Class 2 20 1 5% −18.43
Class 1 10 1 10% +24.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 49 19 38.8% 1.16 +4.35
2nd–3rd fav 103 18 17.5% 0.93 −26.13
4th–6th fav 107 9 8.4% 1.00 −32.00
7th+ in betting 73 1 1.4% 0.37 −39.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
82.5% completed · 291 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 112 76.8% 3 3 19 1 0
Hurdle 179 86% 1 1 22 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Duhallow Tommy (IRE) 23 5 10 8 Apr 26
Sublime Heights (IRE) 20 4 8 22 Dec 24
Sir Rock (IRE)from Olivia Hegarty 19 4 7 4 May 26
Kap Auteuil (FR)from David Arbuthnot 18 1 2 11 Apr 25
Surrey Quest (IRE)from Nicky Henderson 13 2 5 14 Mar 26
Onewayortother (FR) 12 1 4 25 Nov 25
Alkopop (GER)from David Arbuthnot 12 1 4 4 Apr 24
Zacony Rebel (IRE)then Sarah-Jayne Davies 12 2 2 7 Jan 24
Surrey Lord (IRE) 11 3 6 17 Jan 26
La Higuera (IRE) 10 2 5 1 Mar 26
Trevor's Lad (IRE) 10 0 4 10 Jun 25
Kannapolis (IRE)from Michael Easterby 9 1 1 7 Mar 23
All 54 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 54 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nicky Henderson (4) and David Arbuthnot (2); 28 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard; 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
20191510110003318910
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderKevin Brogan
48% of all rides
12.5% SR · A/E 0.97
RiderRWSR£1
Kevin Brogan 160 20 12.5% −27.74
Tom Cannon 69 11 15.9% −22.32
Harry Bannister 42 5 11.9% −16.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
63
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£701k
Prize money
2022
Best season · 14 wins
St Pancras (GB) — bet365 Scottish Triumph Hurdle (Juvenile Hurdle) (Listed) (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Feb 2025 · Listed
£22,780
Surrey Quest (IRE) — Coral Mandarin Handicap Chase Newbury · Dec 2023 · Class 3
£16,186
Gnomon (GB) — Ascot Racecourse Supports Horse Rangers Hampton Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Ascot · Mar 2026 · Class 2
£13,203
Notable horses
Kap Auteuil (FR) Duhallow Tommy (IRE) Sublime Heights (IRE) Sir Rock (IRE) Alkopop (GER) Zacony Rebel (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Getaway (GER) 17.2% · 5–29
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,913 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
Kapgarde (FR) 3.7% · 1–27
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,607 runs since 2008 (723 horses).
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 21.7% · 5–23
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,487 runs since 2008 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Milan (GB) 8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,843 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Arcadio (GER) 20% · 4–20
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,977 runs since 2008 (375 horses).
Shirocco (GER) 21.1% · 4–19
Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,161 runs since 2008 (920 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 451 · newest first

The latest 50 of 451 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 October 2019 to 10 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
10 Oct 26 Chepstow Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'four Years Old' Hurdle Race (a Limited Handicap) (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 8/1
27 Sep 26 Epsom Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Betfred 'Nifty 50' Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap Stakes (For Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 13 ran 4th 100/1
24 May 26 Fontwell Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan KSR Lighting Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/5
06 May 26 Fontwell Flash Man (FR)J: Tom Cannon Mercedes-Benz Of Chichester Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good · 14 ran 2nd 11/8J
04 May 26 Warwick Sir Rock (IRE)J: Tom Cannon Hazelton Mountford Insurance Brokers Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Good · 8 ran PU 7/1
25 Apr 26 Sandown Gnomon (GB)J: Tom Cannon bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 7/2F
25 Apr 26 Sandown Talakan (FR)J: Kevin Brogan bet365 Novices' Championship Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good · 15 ran 7th 11/1
08 Apr 26 Fontwell Duhallow Tommy (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan Southern Cranes And Access Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 3rd 6/4F
06 Apr 26 Plumpton Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Roy Reeve Memorial Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 1st 11/4
29 Mar 26 Ascot Gnomon (GB)J: Kevin Brogan Ascot Racecourse Supports Horse Rangers Hampton Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 19.5f · Good · 4 ran 1st 4/7F
23 Mar 26 Kempton Flash Man (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Virgin Bet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 6/1
16 Mar 26 Plumpton Inedit De Mee (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 10/1
14 Mar 26 Kempton Surrey Quest (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24f · Good · 8 ran PU 12/1
11 Mar 26 Cheltenham Klimt Madrik (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 21f · Good To Soft · 21 ran 8th 80/1
09 Mar 26 Taunton Gnomon (GB)J: Kevin Brogan DragonBet The Roar Before BOG At Cheltenham Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 5/2
08 Mar 26 Warwick Talakan (FR)J: Kevin Brogan Oddschecker Free Bets Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 10/3
07 Mar 26 Hereford I Play County (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan fairplaybet.co.uk Bet 20 Get 20 Free Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25f · Good · 4 ran 4th 8/1
05 Mar 26 Wincanton Duhallow Tommy (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan Women Investors Network Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 3rd 3/1
01 Mar 26 Ffos Las La Higuera (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan Amroth Bay Static Caravan Sales Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Heavy · 7 ran 5th 10/3
19 Feb 26 Huntingdon Run Suzie Run (IRE)J: Kevin Brogan Visit Irish Bloodstock Sales With ITM EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Heavy · 9 ran PU 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Toby Lawes's strike rate?
Toby Lawes has won 47 of 332 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 14.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Toby Lawes do best at?
Plumpton by strike rate: 9 wins from 36 runners (25%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Toby Lawes?
Kevin Brogan, with 160 runners since 2022 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 20 (12.5%).
Is Toby Lawes in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Toby Lawes's Fair A/E?
0.99, from 332 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).