1:42 Redcar
This Class 3 EBF Stallions Novice Stakes over 7f at Redcar on good ground brings together a field of seven two-year-olds, most of whom have shown only glimpses so far. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Crystal Dark, Green Star and Charted Course all rated 55 or 56, underlining how little separates the principals on what remains limited evidence. With no established leader in the race and the pace shape pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair, the ability to produce an effort at the right moment from a handy position looks set to be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and suggests a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy will pay. Green Star from stall 1 is the one who could take an easy lead if his connections elect to send him on, while the three held-up types among the principals may be asked to come from further back in a race where the early fractions could be modest. The key question is whether any horse can quicken decisively off a steady gallop or whether the race will be decided by those positioned prominently throughout.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Crystal Dark KTB Selection56/100
Crystal Dark showed promise when second on debut over this trip. The yard has a solid 25% strike rate at Redcar from a decent-sized sample. With only one run on the clock the overall picture remains tentative. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, though that run-style carries limited evidence and low confidence. The trainer and jockey combination carries an A/E of 1.18 from their 2/13 record together. Unproven on good ground and with no previous course form, he remains something of an unknown quantity but clearly has the highest KTB Fit rating of 56.
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2Green Star55/100
Green Star showed promise when second on debut over this trip and from stall 1 should get an easy lead if wanted. The small sample means everything is still guesswork but the yard's 32% strike-rate at Redcar is strong. Trip looks fine on what little is known. He is dropping in class having already contested a stronger race. Unproven on good ground and without previous course form, his trainer and jockey combination shows 31/198 (16%) with an A/E of 0.88. The KTB Fit score of 55 places him right in the mix in a race where his potential to dictate matters from the front could prove significant.
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3Charted Course55/100
Charted Course has shown fair form in three starts and has already placed over today's 7f trip. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Redcar from 26 runs. Going suitability remains unknown with such a light record. He is dropping in class and carries an official rating of 87. Usually held up and producing his effort late on the limited evidence available, he is another whose run-style confidence is low. The trainer and jockey record stands at 22/146 (15%) with an A/E of 0.98. With a KTB Fit score of 55 he must be considered a serious player on his placed form at this distance.
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4Cagney48/100
Cagney has only a single run behind him and that was a modest ninth on debut over 6f. The Kevin Ryan yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Redcar from a large sample. Stepping up to 7f poses a fresh question while the going remains unknown on such limited evidence. He is dropping in class and is held up, usually producing his effort late though with low-confidence data. The trainer and jockey combination shows 218/2092 (10%) with an A/E of 0.89. His KTB Fit score of 48 reflects that modest debut but the yard's local record means he cannot be entirely dismissed.
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5Leabank47/100
Leabank is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on pedigree and connections. First-time headgear is applied and the yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Redcar from a large sample offers no strong pointer. Data confidence remains low and his KTB Fit rating is 47.
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6Bombora45/100
Bombora showed little on debut over 1m and now drops back to 7f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of this lightly raced colt. The small sample means both his ability and going preference remain unknown. Burke has an 11% strike rate from 419 runs at Redcar while Gray rides. His KTB Fit score is 45.
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7Northern Crown43/100
Northern Crown is a debutant so everything rests on his pedigree and the yard's record with juveniles. The Michael Dods stable has a modest 9% strike-rate at Redcar from a large sample and Connor Beasley is the chosen rider. With only low-confidence data available the colt's true ability remains completely unknown until he hits the track. His KTB Fit rating is 43.
KTB verdict
Crystal Dark is the KTB Selection. He showed promise when second on debut over this trip and benefits from the yard's 25% strike rate at Redcar from a decent sample. Although the overall picture is tentative with only one run on the clock and he is unproven on good ground, his KTB Fit score of 56 tops the field. The main dangers are Green Star, who could make the running from stall 1 having also shown promise on debut, and Charted Course, who brings the best form on paper with placed efforts including over this distance. Cagney is the other principal but has more to prove after a modest debut.
KTB Selection Crystal Dark
This is the narrative read of the 1:42 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the lead or race prominently?
Green Star from stall 1 should get an easy lead if wanted, as the pace shape lacks a leader and no other horse is noted as wanting to go forward.
How many of the principals are dropping in class?
Three of the four principals — Green Star, Charted Course and Cagney — are dropping in class.
Which runners are held up according to their run-style?
Crystal Dark, Charted Course, Cagney and Bombora are all described as held up, usually producing their effort late on limited evidence with low confidence.
Which horse is making its racecourse debut and what headgear is it wearing?
Leabank is the newcomer making its racecourse debut and is fitted with first-time headgear.
What is the yard strike rate at Redcar for the trainer of the KTB Selection?
Edward Bethell has a 25% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.22 from 102 runs.
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