2:01 Uttoxeter
This Class 4 maiden hurdle division at Uttoxeter over 1m7f168y on good ground features a field of nine with limited previous hurdling form between them. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Lara K on 60, with the next three all hovering around the 50 mark, suggesting a race where potential rather than established hurdling ability may prove decisive. The drop in trip for several runners adds an extra layer of uncertainty to a contest that already looks modest on paper.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner enjoying an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to bridge. Analogical is the only confirmed front-runner in the line-up and is expected to take up that role from the outset. The remainder of the field are almost all held-up types who will be producing their efforts from off the pace, setting up a key question of whether anything can quicken effectively enough to reel in the leader on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lara K KTB Selection60/100
Lara K has shown little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of her. Mrs C Williams holds a 17% strike rate at Uttoxeter from six runs, which offers some encouragement in a modest event. Conor Ring takes the ride with the trainer and jockey combination showing a 5/53 record and A/E of 0.93. She has had two runs on good ground without placing and has no previous course form. Overall this looks a stiff task on what she has shown to date but the KTB Fit score of 60 marks her out as the one to beat.
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2Rose Warrior51/100
Rose Warrior has shown only modest form in ten runs and was well beaten on her only previous visit to Uttoxeter. She drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance before, and she holds no wins or places on good ground from two attempts. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track from a large sample of 463 runs adds little encouragement. I J Power is aboard with a strong 25% strike rate at Uttoxeter from just four rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need to find considerable improvement from off the pace if she is to feature.
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3Mighty Dink50/100
Mighty Dink has shown little in two starts so far and needs to improve markedly. The drop back in trip is an unknown that could suit or expose him further. Trainer Dan Skelton has a solid 23% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 638 runs while jockey Harry Skelton is also well established at the track with a 29% strike rate from 500 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be coming from off the pace in a race where the leader may get first run. With a KTB Fit score of 50 he is capable of better but has plenty to find on what he has shown to date.
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4Governors Rock49/100
Governors Rock has won two of his five starts and looks to have more to come at this sort of trip. Dropping back from 2m1f is a positive given he is already a winner over today's distance from a single attempt. The yard's 15% strike-rate at Uttoxeter from 168 runs is respectable. He has shown he handles good ground with one win and one place from two starts on the surface. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to come from off the pace to challenge the likely uncontested leader. Dropping in class is another positive and he holds a KTB Fit score of 49.
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5Venezuelan48/100
Venezuelan is a fair 4-year-old with some placed form on good ground and one win from five starts on this surface. He has been tried three times at today's trip without success and now makes his first appearance at Uttoxeter. The yard's modest 8% strike rate here from 168 runs adds a note of caution. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to improve to feature.
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6Dontcontradictme46/100
Dontcontradictme has shown little so far with a recent string of modest efforts including a pulled-up and a well-beaten sixth. Dropping back in trip raises a fresh question after his last run over much further. The trainer holds a solid 19% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 43 runs. Usually held up, he will be among those coming from off the pace.
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7Scopic46/100
A limited performer, Scopic has failed to complete in two of his last three starts and showed little spark when sixth on his most recent outing. He drops back in trip today having been unsuccessful in two previous runs at this distance. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 52 runs. Stepping up in class and usually held up, he has a KTB Fit score of 46.
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8Analogical44/100
Analogical has shown ability on good ground with two wins and three places from five runs but steps up in trip today having last run over 1m4f. The move to 1m7f168y asks a fresh question of a horse that remains lightly exposed after 15 starts. Trainer Philip Hobbs & Johnson White have a 6% strike rate from 33 runs at Uttoxeter. The only front-runner in the field, he is set to make the running in what looks an uncontested lead.
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9Troy Story39/100
Troy Story has shown only modest form across 14 runs and has failed to win or place in two starts on good ground. The yard's poor 3% strike-rate at Uttoxeter adds little encouragement. First-time headgear is now fitted as he tries this trip again. Usually held up, he has the lowest KTB Fit score in the field at 39.
KTB verdict
Lara K is the KTB Selection. She has shown little in two starts so far but the drop back in trip asks a fresh question and the trainer's 17% strike rate at Uttoxeter from six runs provides encouragement. The KTB Fit score of 60 puts her clearly on top in a modest event where few have shown much hurdling ability. Main dangers are Governors Rock, who has already won over today's trip and is dropping in class, and Mighty Dink, who represents the powerful Skelton team and could improve markedly. Rose Warrior is next best of the remainder but has modest form and a poor record at the track.
KTB Selection Lara K
This is the narrative read of the 2:01 Uttoxeter. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Uttoxeter racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Uttoxeter results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Analogical is the only confirmed front-runner and is expected to make the running given the lone leader pace shape.
How many horses in the field have previous course form at Uttoxeter?
Only Rose Warrior has run at the track before, finishing eighth on her sole visit.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Uttoxeter in this race?
Dan Skelton has a 23% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 638 runs, the highest in the field.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Governors Rock is dropping in class and is already a winner over today's distance.
What is the only piece of headgear being worn in the race?
First-time headgear is fitted on Troy Story.
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