2:42 Leopardstown
The Bahrain Turf Club Knockaire Stakes is a competitive Listed race over 1m1f at Leopardstown on good ground, featuring a compact field of seven runners where class and trip suitability will be key. KTB's Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals all rated in the mid-50s, underlining a race where the pace shape and how the held-up types can close on the leader may prove decisive. The overall KTB numbers point to a contest in which proven performers at this level hold the edge, though several hold course or distance credentials that cannot be ignored.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader likely to have an uncontested lead according to the pace shape, the race is set to unfold with one horse establishing an easy rhythm up front while the remainder are held up and asked to produce their efforts from off the pace. Most of the field, including the selection, prefer to race held up and deliver late, meaning the key question will be whether the clear leader can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back or if the closers will find the necessary momentum on this turning track. The draw and the ability to handle the step up in trip add further layers, as those racing prominently may try to stretch the field while the held-up brigade look to pounce in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1King Cuan KTB Selection62/100
King Cuan is a smart performer who has been consistent at a high level, finishing in the frame on three of his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having looked as though the extra yardage would suit, while the trainer’s solid 24% strike rate at Leopardstown adds confidence. Good ground clearly poses no problem and he arrives with an official rating of 111. The partnership of P Twomey and W J Lee carries a 27% strike rate with a positive A/E of 1.02, and although the jockey’s own Leopardstown figures read 8%, the trainer’s local record is a notable plus. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall four in a race where the pace shape should allow closers a chance to strike if the leader does not get away. With recent form figures of 20-341 he enters this Listed event in good order.
-
2Dublin's Knight56/100
Dublin's Knight is a useful sort who showed solid placed form when last seen. Connections are respected here and the trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Leopardstown from a big sample of 1095 runs. A course and distance winner who is proven on this going at this track, he holds an official rating of 98. The Joseph Patrick O’Brien and Dylan Browne McMonagle partnership shows a 19% strike rate with an A/E of 0.91, though both trainer and jockey have slightly below-par A/E figures at Leopardstown individually. He has recent form figures of 221- and steps back into Listed company after proving himself at this trip previously. While pedigree and sales background offer encouragement, this remains a low-confidence call given the strength of the opposition.
-
3Zodiac Bear56/100
Zodiac Bear is a useful performer who has already won at this track and on this good ground, with two wins from two starts on the surface. He steps up in trip today having won over this distance before, though his latest run ended in a pulled-up effort. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at Leopardstown from 458 runs is a negative, as is the jockey’s 7% strike rate at the track. With an official rating of 104 and recent form figures of 13-41P he possesses course form having won here from three starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall three in a race where the pace shape may suit those coming from off the pace. Good ground clearly suits and he holds strong claims on his best form.
-
4Faiyum56/100
Faiyum is a useful performer who has been a regular in good company and arrives in decent nick after a string of placed efforts. Stall one could prove handy on this turning track while the good ground looks ideal given a solid record of one win and three places from four starts on it. The trainer's modest 11% strike rate at Leopardstown is offset by the sheer volume of runners sent, with 1189 starts. Partnered by Colin Keane, the combination shows a 20% strike rate with an A/E of 0.92, though both have below-par A/E figures at the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is the one most likely to take up the lone-leader role in a race where an uncontested lead could be hard to peg back. With recent form figures of -34282 and an official rating of 102 he is respected.
-
5Iron Fist50/100
Iron Fist is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a string of placed efforts. He has won over today's trip but is 0-5 on good ground and has never run here at Leopardstown before, while the yard's modest 10% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution.
-
6Key Witness45/100
Key Witness is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts this season. He steps up in trip having won his only previous start at a mile, though he showed little on his one run on good ground, and the trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Leopardstown adds a note of caution.
-
7Lewis Carroll44/100
Lewis Carroll is a useful colt who has shown steady improvement since his debut, winning a maiden and finishing a solid fourth in a Group 3 last time. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question, while the yard's strong 20% strike rate at Leopardstown adds encouragement, though going suitability remains unknown on the basis of only four runs.
KTB verdict
King Cuan stands out as the KTB Selection in a race where the pace shape is likely to hand an uncontested lead to the prominent runner. He has been performing consistently at a smart level, looks ready for the step up in trip, and benefits from the trainer’s strong record at Leopardstown on good ground. His held-up style should allow him to come with a late run against the leader if the fractions are kind. The main dangers are Zodiac Bear, who has already won at the track and on this ground, and Faiyum, who is likely to make the running from stall one and could prove difficult to reel in. Dublin's Knight also merits respect on his course-and-distance winning form.
KTB Selection King Cuan
This is the narrative read of the 2:42 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leopardstown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Faiyum, who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many of the principals are usually held up?
Three of the four principals – King Cuan, Zodiac Bear and Dublin's Knight – are usually held up, with only Faiyum tending to race prominently.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Leopardstown in this field?
P Twomey with a 24% strike rate at Leopardstown from 86 runs.
Which horse has proven course and distance form at Leopardstown?
Dublin's Knight, who is a course and distance winner and proven on this going at this course.
Which horse is stepping up in trip having looked as though the extra yardage would suit?
King Cuan.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies