What is Patrick J Flynn's strike rate?

Patrick J Flynn has won 47 of 602 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Patrick J Flynn do best at?

Cork by strike rate: 6 wins from 48 runners (12.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Patrick J Flynn?

Robyn Donaghue-Leahy, with 185 runners since 2022 — 31% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (9.7%).

Is Patrick J Flynn in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Patrick J Flynn's Fair A/E?

1.13, from 602 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Patrick J Flynn

602 runners in the last 5 seasons · 59 individual horses

As at 23 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 2 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

47–602

Wins / Runs

7.8%

Strike rate

n=602

150 (25%)

Placed

1.13

Fair A/E

n=602 · 0.89 incl. margin

−212.29

£1 level stake

n=602 at SP · −35.3%

£624k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 120 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.13).

Deterministic profile computed from 602 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 23 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Dec Fresh horses: 8.5% 19.4% when favourite Robyn Donaghue-Leahy: 9.7% from 185 Claiming riders: 8.3% Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Dundalk (AW) (12.3%, n=106), clear of the yard's 7.8% baseline. Debutants struggle at 3.1% (n=32, Fair A/E 2.04). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 8.5% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.71 and +4.25 to a £1 stake over 117 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Robyn Donaghue-Leahy rides 31% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.7%, A/E 1.35) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (17.1%, n=41). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 2.1% over 95 runners, 5.7pts below the baseline. 11 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Arthur Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap at Galway (Jul 2009, £150,500). The stable star of the record: Bahrain Storm (IRE) — 12 wins from 67 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Dec.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.5%+0.7

n=117 · A/E 1.71 · £1 +4.25

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−7.8

n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Debutants · first career start

3.1%−4.7

n=32 · A/E 2.04 · £1 −9.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.7%−1.1

n=15 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −8.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5%−2.8

n=20 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −13.50

When favourite

19.4%

n=31 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −9.25

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.3%+0.5

n=408 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −127.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

25%+17.2

n=4 · A/E 9.87 · £1 +9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With W J Lee 18.8% vs 7.8% · n=32

With G B Noonan 17.5% vs 7.8% · n=40

At trips under 6f 17.1% vs 7.8% · n=41

With a new jockey booking 2.1% vs 7.8% · n=188

Over 1m – 1m1f 2.1% vs 7.8% · n=95

At Dundalk (AW) 12.3% vs 7.8% · n=106

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 446 34 7.6% −178.79

Hurdle 111 8 7.2% −41.75

Chase 29 3 10.3% −2.50

NH Flat 16 2 12.5% +10.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 196 13 6.6% −67.42

Soft 165 8 4.8% −114.50

Standard (AW) 106 13 12.3% −12.50

Good to Soft 61 4 6.6% −15.00

Heavy 55 6 10.9% −1.25

Good to Firm 19 3 15.8% −1.62

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 106 13 12.3% −12.50

Gowran Park 66 2 3% −43.00

Cork 48 6 12.5% +18.50

Curragh 45 4 8.9% +0.00

Clonmel 36 2 5.6% −25.50

Tramore 34 3 8.8% −10.00

Limerick 28 1 3.6% −21.50

Leopardstown 27 2 7.4% −4.00

Naas 25 2 8% −16.00

Navan 23 0 0% −23.00

Thurles 21 1 4.8% −11.00

Listowel 19 1 5.3% −15.50

Wexford 18 3 16.7% +17.75

Tipperary 17 2 11.8% −9.62

Fairyhouse 16 0 0% −16.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 4 1 25% +9.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 42 9 21.4% 1.02 −6.92

2nd–3rd fav 92 16 17.4% 1.27 −4.87

4th–6th fav 154 13 8.4% 1.13 −43.50

7th+ in betting 314 9 2.9% 1.02 −157.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Walnut Beach (IRE) 47 4 15 31 Dec 25

Not Just Any Eagle (IRE) 43 6 19 11 Oct 26

Bite That (IRE) 40 2 10 29 May 26

Duke Otto (IRE) 37 3 8 2 Oct 26

Gallo Dell Cielo (IRE) 27 5 11 15 Oct 26

Just Another Eagle (IRE) 25 1 5 8 Oct 26

Carrigans Grove (IRE) 24 3 10 21 Oct 26

Imperial Dream (IRE)from Sir Mark Prescott Bt 24 1 6 8 Oct 26

Tudor Manor (IRE) 24 2 6 8 Apr 25

Whatharm (IRE) 23 0 3 26 Mar 24

Surpass And Shine (IRE) 18 2 5 29 Sep 26

Jordan Breeze (IRE) 17 2 5 15 Oct 26

All 59 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 59 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Sir Mark Prescott Bt (2); 49 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 8

Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

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A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderRobyn Donaghue-Leahy

31% of all rides
9.7% SR · A/E 1.35

RiderRWSR£1

Robyn Donaghue-Leahy 185 18 9.7% −62.75

Alan Persse 89 4 4.5% −46.00

Conor Hoban 42 3 7.1% −5.12

G B Noonan 40 7 17.5% +32.50

W J Lee 32 6 18.8% +9.08

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

342

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.67m

Prize money

2010

Best season · 34 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Bahrain Storm (IRE) — Arthur Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap Galway · Jul 2009 · Grade A

£150,500

She's Our Mark (GB) — Give Thanks Stakes (group 3) Cork · Aug 2010 · Group 3

£52,000

She's Our Mark (GB) — Desmond Stakes (Group 3) Leopardstown · Aug 2007 · Group 3

£45,500

Notable horses

Bahrain Storm (IRE) Hes Our Music (IRE) Waydownsouth (IRE) Final Flashback (IRE) She's Our Mark (GB) Whatharm (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Free Eagle (IRE) 9.8% · 15–153

Progeny have won 10.6% of 2,399 runs since 2008 (189 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.2% from 130.

Milan (GB) 5% · 2–40

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,852 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Sir Prancealot (IRE) 8.1% · 3–37

Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,686 runs since 2008 (216 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.6% from 627. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.3% from 171.

Finsceal Fior (IRE) 18.5% · 5–27

Progeny have won 7.6% of 564 runs since 2008 (47 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 10.6% from 132. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.4% from 140.

Canford Cliffs (IRE) 0% · 0–25

Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,091 runs since 2008 (314 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 263.

Casamento (IRE) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 8.6% of 3,621 runs since 2008 (299 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 5.6% from 497. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 4.9% from 287.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,310 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,310 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 21 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Carrigans Grove (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse 5th & 13th December Handicap6f · Yielding · 21 ran 5th 13/2

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Nottooshabby (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy 1xBet.ie Supports The Curragh Handicap10f · Yielding · 24 ran 5th 22/1

18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Key Witness (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Bahrain Turf Club Knockaire Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 40/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Jordan Breeze (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy October Racing With 1xBet.ie Apprentice Handicap5f · Soft · 17 ran 5th 4/1F

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Gallo Dell Cielo (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Isuzu Ireland Handicap14f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 7th 16/1

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Magna Gee Gee (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 15th 150/1

11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Not Just Any Eagle (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Colm White Bookmaker Beggar's End Handicap16f · Soft · 17 ran 5th 33/1

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Key Witness (IRE)J: Alan Persse Naas Racecourse Handicap7f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 14/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Mothel Abbey (IRE)J: Alan Persse www.thurlesraces.ie Maiden16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 9th 200/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Just Another Eagle (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Welcome Back To Thurles Handicap12.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 12th 9/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Imperial Dream (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 8th 6/1

07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Nottooshabby (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Racing Again 21st October Handicap (Div II)10f · Yielding · 16 ran 2nd 28/1

07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Carrigans Grove (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Book Your Discounted Tickets On NavanRacecourse.ie Handicap6f · Yielding · 22 ran 4th 8/1

02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Duke Otto (IRE)J: Conor Smithers Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good · 20 ran 11th 25/1

02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Magna Gee Gee (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 100/1

29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Surpass And Shine (IRE)J: Scott McCullagh WTW Willis Handicap6f · Soft · 19 ran 10th 33/1

29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Jordan Breeze (IRE)J: Alan Persse WTW Willis Handicap6f · Soft · 19 ran 8th 16/1

29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Carrigans Grove (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy WTW Willis Handicap6f · Soft · 19 ran 3rd 9/1

26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Queen Of Chenab (IRE)J: Ghulam Abbas Equiwinner Patches Fillies Maiden9f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 15th 300/1

23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Magna Gee Gee (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 16 ran 9th 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick J Flynn's strike rate?: Patrick J Flynn has won 47 of 602 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick J Flynn do best at?: Cork by strike rate: 6 wins from 48 runners (12.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick J Flynn?: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy, with 185 runners since 2022 — 31% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (9.7%).
Is Patrick J Flynn in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Patrick J Flynn's Fair A/E?: 1.13, from 602 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.