2:59 Clonmel
The 2:59 at Clonmel is a 2m3f145y maiden hurdle on good ground featuring a field of 13. With no obvious leader in a race that lacks pace, the KTB numbers point to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy could prove advantageous. Overall the principals are modest on the figures, with Lincall holding the highest KTB Fit Score at 65.
How the race shapes up
No horse is obviously keen to take the lead, so the pace shape suggests a steadily-run, tactical contest in which those positioned handy should be favoured. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, raising the possibility of a bunching finish if the race is not truly run. The key question is whether any runner can inject enough pace at the right time or whether the race will simply fall into the lap of one of the closers.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lincall KTB Selection65/100
Lincall is a useful type who has shown ability on his better days. He has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts, including recent figures of 55P-69. The five-year-old drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact over this distance on his only previous attempt, while his sole run at Clonmel produced a well-beaten fifth. First-time headgear is now fitted and he is held up, usually producing his effort late. The trainer has no Clonmel record from five runs overall, though the jockey has a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.69 from 60 rides.
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2Akako56/100
Akako has shown very little in three runs so far and was well beaten when seventh over course and distance on return. The six-year-old drops back in trip from 2m6f which asks a fresh question. He is held up, usually producing his effort late. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Clonmel from 263 runs, while the jockey has a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.05 from 15 rides. Connections have a combined record of 2/41 with an A/E of 0.94.
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3Ddakji53/100
Ddakji has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing well beaten on each occasion. The four-year-old steps up in trip today, an unknown, and with only a small sample both going and overall ability remain hard to gauge with any confidence. He is held up, usually producing his effort late. The trainer has no Clonmel record from four runs overall, while the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.29 from 70 rides. Trainer and jockey combined are 0/6 at the course.
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4Down After Dark50/100
Down After Dark is a lightly raced four-year-old with a poor recent record of unseating and two pulled-ups from just three starts. The small sample means there is little to go on and today's longer trip is an unknown. He is held up, usually producing his effort late. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Clonmel from 80 runs with an A/E of 1.15, while the jockey has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 546 rides. Trainer and jockey combined are 27/287 with an A/E of 0.90.
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5Pixie Hill50/100
Pixie Hill is a fair sort who has shown very little in four starts to date, finishing well beaten on each of her last three outings with figures of P-0960. She steps up in trip today having already tried this distance once without success, while the small sample of her career runs leaves her with plenty to prove. The six-year-old is held up, usually producing her effort late. The trainer has a 33% strike rate at Clonmel from only three runs with an A/E of 17.73, while the jockey has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.86 from 152 rides. Trainer and jockey combined are 1/21 with an A/E of 0.85.
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6Howyasox48/100
Howyasox is a useful performer who has shown ability in stronger company than this. Recent efforts have been patchy with a fall last time but the drop back from 3m looks a sensible move and the Clonmel trainer figure is solid enough at 11% from 99 runs. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, and connections add some confidence though the small overall sample means plenty remains to be proven.
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7Vargas47/100
Vargas has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing well beaten on each occasion. The yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Clonmel from 515 runs. He steps up in trip today for a lightly-raced horse whose going preference remains unknown. He is held up, usually producing his effort late.
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8Eternal Reward46/100
Eternal Reward has shown very little in three runs to date and arrives here off the back of two modest handicap efforts. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Clonmel from 101 runs. This represents a step up in trip and with only three career runs the form is too thin to read with any confidence. He is held up, usually producing his effort late.
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9Woodie Wiley46/100
Woodie Wiley has shown very little so far with a recent form string of PS700 and only four career runs. The drop back in trip to 2m3f today poses a fresh question as the horse has not been tried at this distance before. He typically settles in midfield. Data confidence is low given the small sample so this runner should be treated with caution.
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10C'Mere Girleen40/100
C'Mere Girleen has only two runs behind her and showed little in either, finishing well beaten on both starts. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at Clonmel while the 7 lb claimer is unproven at the track. Dropping back in trip poses a fresh question and with such a small sample the overall picture remains very unclear. She is held up, usually producing her effort late.
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11Kalico Leader39/100
Kalico Leader has shown mixed results in just two completed starts this year, finishing second on one occasion but falling on the other two outings. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with very limited racing. Both trainer and jockey have too few runs at Clonmel to draw any firm conclusions. He is held up, usually producing his effort late.
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12Rodeo Joe38/100
Rodeo Joe has a patchy recent record of P/P-0P and only three career runs in the last year, so he remains very hard to weigh up. He drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact in his one previous try at this distance. The trainer has only two runs at Clonmel, too few to judge, while the going remains an unknown on such limited evidence. He is held up, usually producing his effort late.
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13It's Buster's Way38/100
It's Buster's Way has shown little in two starts to date and remains very lightly raced. The yard's 0% strike rate from 19 runs at Clonmel is a negative. This represents a step up in trip as a fresh question. He is held up, usually producing his effort late.
KTB verdict
Lincall is the KTB Selection. He is a useful type who has shown ability on his better days, and first-time headgear is now applied in a race where the rest of the field have shown very little. The drop back in trip and his held-up run style fit the steadily-run shape that is anticipated. His main dangers are Akako, who drops back in trip having been well beaten over course and distance last time, and Ddakji, though both have plenty to prove on what they have shown so far.
KTB Selection Lincall
This is the narrative read of the 2:59 Clonmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Clonmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Clonmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear significant for Lincall?
It is now fitted as he has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
What does the pace shape suggest for race tactics?
No one obviously wants the lead so it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
How many previous runs has Ddakji had?
Three starts so far, finishing well beaten on each occasion.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Clonmel among the principals?
Daniel Joseph O'Leary has a 33% strike rate at Clonmel from three runs.
What trip is new for both Down After Dark and Vargas?
Today's longer trip is an unknown for both lightly-raced horses.
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