Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.98). With a claiming rider up the record reads 12% (83 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 220 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 12%
The read
The record is strongest at Tramore (15.2%, n=33), clear of the yard's 8.6% baseline. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 12% (n=83, Fair A/E 1.52). The record reads poorly in Flat races — 0% over 39 runners, 8.6pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Baltika Beer Aintree Hurdle at Aintree (Apr 2007, £91,232). The stable star of the record: Arcadian Sunrise (IRE) — 7 wins from 18 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.1%−2.5
n=49 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −35.87
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.6
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
5.9%−2.7
n=17 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
12.5%+3.9
n=8 · A/E 1.83 · £1 −4.25
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
8.3%−0.3
n=12 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −10.00
When favourite
38.9%
n=18 · A/E 1.53 · £1 +6.41
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12%+3.4
n=83 · A/E 1.52 · £1 −31.97
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.6
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Flat races0% vs 8.6% · n=39
At Tramore15.2% vs 8.6% · n=33
With claiming riders up12% vs 8.6% · n=83
With horses switching code5.3% vs 8.6% · n=76
On Good to Soft going5% vs 8.6% · n=40
On Good going11.4% vs 8.6% · n=70
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle10099%−51.34
Chase54611.1%−26.75
Flat3900%−39.00
NH Flat27414.8%−4.75
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft8078.8%−38.87
Good70811.4%−34.67
Good to Soft4025%−28.50
Heavy2428.3%−13.80
Good to Firm400%−4.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Tramore33515.2%−13.29
Killarney2400%−24.00
Punchestown2214.5%−18.00
Listowel22522.7%+2.75
Cork1516.7%−11.25
Tipperary1317.7%−5.50
Galway1200%−12.00
Wexford1119.1%+1.00
Thurles10110%−3.50
Clonmel8225%+2.20
Leopardstown800%−8.00
Naas8225%+1.75
Curragh600%−6.00
Gowran Park600%−6.00
Limerick400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1700%−7.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite22836.4%1.48+6.41
2nd–3rd fav44715.9%1.01−6.25
4th–6th fav7545.3%0.77−43.00
7th+ in betting7900%0.00−79.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f9488.5%−54.30
1m5f – 2m8078.8%−47.87
2m5f – 3m35411.4%−8.67
1m2f – 1m4f800%−8.00
Over 3m300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20225048%−21.50
202361711.5%−24.47
20244548.9%−29.37
20253313%−27.00
20263139.7%−19.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9699.4%−53.47
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners68811.8%−21.25
8-10 runners4948.2%−27.30
14-16 runners4836.3%−35.79
17+ runners3000%−30.00
5-7 runners25416%−7.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 33 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 33 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from W P Mullins (2); 21 had their first archived run for this yard.
10 have since run for another yard, most often for Fergal O'Brien (2); 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00821019042310010
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Al Eile (IRE) — Baltika Beer Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2007 · Class 1
£91,232
Al Eile (IRE) — Scottish And Newcastle Pub Enterprises Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 Aintree · Apr 2008 · Class 1
£91,216
Al Eile (IRE) — Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2005 · Class 1
Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,319 runs since 2008 (81 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 109. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 127.
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,203 runs since 2008 (504 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 821 · newest first
The latest 50 of 821 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 January 2005 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John Queally's strike rate?
John Queally has won 19 of 220 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Queally do best at?
Tramore by strike rate: 5 wins from 33 runners (15.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is John Queally in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Queally's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 219 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John Queally·SR 8.6%·A/E 0.98
KTB
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