3:32 Bath
This Class 3 British EBF Future Stayers' Novice Stakes over a mile at Bath brings together six two-year-olds in a race restricted by sire and dam, with the going currently good to firm. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 43 and 50, reflecting a lack of standout performers and plenty of unknowns given the inexperience across the field. With the pace shape rated unclear and low confidence in run-style data, the contest looks set to revolve around which horse can improve past modest or limited existing form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style evidence across the six runners to form a reliable picture. Most of the principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, which could lead to a race where the leaders are allowed an easy time upfront. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off what may be a steady gallop, or if one of the debutants can impose from the front in the absence of confirmed pace pressure.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Dust My Broom KTB Selection50/100
Dust My Broom has a single run in the book, having been beaten 12 lengths on debut, so there are few positives to take from that effort. The first-time headgear is now fitted and the yard has a solid 13% strike-rate at Bath from a big sample of 163 runs. The trip looks about right on pedigree but with only one run in the book this remains very much a watching brief. The trainer and jockey combination shows 0/17 with an A/E of 0.00 and -£17.00 LSP. The colt is held up, usually producing its effort late, though the evidence is limited and confidence is low. It is unproven on good to firm and has no course form on record.
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2Al Qayed49/100
Al Qayed is a fair performer who has shown consistent form in two starts over this trip, finishing third on both occasions. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Bath from a decent sample of 146 runs. The trip looks about right but the going remains an unknown with so few runs on the board. It is dropping in class here and the trainer and jockey record stands at 21% with an A/E of 0.91 and -£218.41 LSP. The horse is held up, usually producing its effort late with medium confidence in that assessment. It has no course form on record and showed no win or place from its one run on good to firm.
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3Political Resident47/100
Political Resident is a first-time-out two-year-old from a yard that operates at a solid 15% strike rate at Bath from 478 runs. The first-time headgear is an interesting move on debut. With no racecourse form to go on and low data confidence the rest is pure pedigree and sales speculation. The trainer and jockey record stands at 15% with an A/E of 0.91 and -£237.03 LSP. By New Bay, it has a 14% overall win rate attached to that sire from 4038 runners. It has no course win on record.
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4Divide And Conquer45/100
Divide And Conquer was placed second on debut over this trip at a similar level. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Bath from a big sample of 264 runs. With only one run on the board and no meaningful going data, the colt remains something of an unknown quantity. It is dropping in class here and the trainer and jockey record stands at 21% with an A/E of 0.96 and -£22.22 LSP. It is unproven on good to firm and has no course form on record.
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5Next Best45/100
Next Best is a debutant with little known form so assessment rests on pedigree and sales background. The yard has a solid 12% strike-rate at Bath from a big sample of 353 runs. Connections will be hoping the colt can show enough on this first run to build from.
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6First Class Lad43/100
First Class Lad showed very little on his 7f debut and now steps up in trip for only his second start. The yard has a modest 9% strike-rate at Bath from a huge sample of 748 runs. With just one run on the board this remains a very tentative profile.
KTB verdict
The KTB Selection is Dust My Broom. Although it was beaten 12 lengths on debut there are few positives from that run, yet the first-time headgear is now applied and the yard's solid 13% strike-rate at Bath from a big sample offers some encouragement for a race where the overall standard is modest. The selection's ability to improve remains the main unknown, but it is taken to capitalise on the limited opposition. Its main dangers are Al Qayed, who brings consistent placed form over the trip, and the debutants Political Resident and Divide And Conquer, both of whom carry interesting trainer and pedigree notes in a race short on hard form.
KTB Selection Dust My Broom
This is the narrative read of the 3:32 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its debut in first-time headgear from the Andrew Balding yard?
Political Resident, a first-time-out 2yo from a yard that operates at a solid 15% strike rate at Bath, with the first-time headgear an interesting move on debut.
How many previous runs has the KTB Selection had and what was the result?
Dust My Broom has a single run in the book, having been beaten 12 lengths on debut.
Which runner has the strongest trainer strike-rate at the course?
Al Qayed's yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Bath from a decent sample of 146 runs.
What is the run-style of the top two in the KTB Fit rankings?
Both Dust My Broom and Al Qayed are held up, usually producing their effort late.
Which horse finished second on its only start and is now dropping in class?
Divide And Conquer, placed second on debut over this trip at a similar level.
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