3:34 Stratford
This Class 5 handicap chase over 2m6f125y at Stratford on good ground brings together a compact field of seven where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 57 and 37. Ballynorth heads the KTB numbers with a 57 Fit score as the selection, just ahead of Kit's Coty on 54, Mersey Street on 53 and Gone In Sixty on 50. The race features several hold-up types and a pair of confirmed front-runners, with the strong pace predicted to play a significant role in how the contest unfolds.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared and the pace shape rated as strong with high confidence, an early battle for the lead is expected. Ballynorth and Mersey Street both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure a genuine gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable late on. This shape is likely to play into the hands of the hold-up horses such as Kit's Coty, Gone In Sixty, Jack's A Legend, Crac de Megaudais and Bahtiyar, who can be produced with a late run. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate matters or if the race will collapse in the straight to favour those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ballynorth KTB Selection57/100
Ballynorth is a useful performer who has shown enough across his five runs to suggest he can make an impact at this level. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question, though his front-running style could see him set the early fractions in a race with a predicted strong pace. The Ben Pauling yard posts a 24% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 1.19 from 92 runs, which is a positive, while Callum Pritchard operates at a 10% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.67 from 21 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows 21 wins from 137 rides for a 15% strike rate and an A/E of 0.76. With an official rating of 96 and recent form of 3F4PP-, he is taken to put his experience to good use from the front.
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2Kit's Coty54/100
Kit's Coty is a useful performer who arrives in consistent form having posted three straight placed efforts and a solid recent third at a similar trip. He drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow in two previous attempts at this distance, while his held-up style should suit the anticipated strong pace that could cause the leaders to fold late. Emma Lavelle has a 19% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 1.13 from 217 runs and the yard's course connections add encouragement. The trainer and jockey partnership records 6 wins from 37 rides for a 16% strike rate and an A/E of 1.25 with a small level-stakes profit. Jonathan Burke is 10% at the track with an A/E of 0.55 from 115 rides. With an official rating of 91, a drop in class and 1 win from 7 starts on good ground with three places, he is likely to be produced late with every chance.
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3Mersey Street53/100
Mersey Street is a useful performer who won a 2m3½f handicap at Worcester last time and arrives in decent form with figures of F127-1. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question, though his front-running style means he will be prominent early in what is expected to be a strongly-run race. His record on good ground reads 2 wins from 16 starts with six places. The Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 0.17 from 26 runs, while Richie McLernon is 8% at the track with an A/E of 0.71 from 200 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows 26 wins from 215 rides for a 12% strike rate and an A/E of 0.96 with level-stakes profit. Rated 92, he will need to prove his stamina but cannot be ruled out if he gets his own way in front.
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4Gone In Sixty50/100
Gone In Sixty is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track, where he has a record of 1 win from 5 starts. His recent form of 243415 is mixed but he has shown enough to stay competitive in this grade from an official rating of 81. A hold-up performer with high-confidence in that assessment, he is ideally suited by the strong pace that is forecast and which could see the front-runners come back to him. Alex Hales has a 9% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 0.76 from 139 runs, while Kielan Woods boasts a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.18 from 187 rides. The trainer and jockey partnership records 76 wins from 703 rides for an 11% strike rate and an A/E of 0.80. With 2 wins from 37 starts on good ground and 17 places, he is entitled to go well at this venue.
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5Jack's A Legend49/100
Jack's A Legend is a fair 11-year-old with some placed form in this grade but has been well held on his last three starts with figures of 33-740. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question, while his record on good ground shows no win or place from six runs. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Stratford from three runs and the jockey, despite a small-sample 33% strike rate at the track, means the venue remains something of an unknown for the pair.
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6Crac de Megaudais45/100
Crac de Megaudais is a fair performer who has run three times here without placing and looks to be treading water judged on his recent 54P-34 form. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at Stratford while Gavin Sheehan rides with a solid 18% strike rate at the track from 245 rides.
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7Bahtiyar37/100
Bahtiyar is a fair performer who has been a regular at Stratford and has placed twice from ten runs here without winning. Consistent rather than progressive of late with form figures of 256345, he has never won on good ground from 22 attempts. The trainer remains winless from 51 runs at the track while the jockey's modest 5% strike rate adds little encouragement, though he does drop in class.
KTB verdict
Ballynorth is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who has shown enough in five runs to suggest he can make an impact at this level, and his front-running style gives him the chance to dictate matters in a race with a strong pace predicted. The trainer's solid record at Stratford adds to his claims as he steps up in trip. Kit's Coty, with his consistent placed form and hold-up run-style that matches the shape, is the most obvious danger, while Mersey Street brings recent winning form though his yard's modest course record is a concern. Gone In Sixty cannot be dismissed given his course-and-distance success and the way the race is set to be run.
KTB Selection Ballynorth
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 17 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ballynorth | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Kit's Coty | 11/2 | William Hill |
| Mersey Street | 5/2 | William Hill |
| Gone In Sixty | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Jack's A Legend | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| Crac de Megaudais | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Bahtiyar | 10/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:34 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Stratford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Stratford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to contest the lead early?
Ballynorth and Mersey Street are both front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runners are suited by the predicted strong pace?
The hold-up horses Kit's Coty, Gone In Sixty, Jack's A Legend, Crac de Megaudais and Bahtiyar are suited by a strong pace that could collapse late.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Stratford for the yard of the selection Ballynorth?
Ben Pauling has a 24% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 1.19 from 92 runs.
Has any horse in the field won over the course and distance?
Gone In Sixty has won over this trip and at this track.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Both Kit's Coty and Bahtiyar are dropping in class.
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