4:18 Stratford
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Stratford over 2m2f148y on good ground features a field of eight where the KTB Fit scores identify a clear top pick on 69 while the remainder cluster between 55 and 37. The race lacks any obvious front-runner and is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which positioning and timing will be key. Al Mootamarid heads the KTB numbers having won once from four starts at the track and shown consistent placed form this year, though the step up in trip and modest good-ground strike rate introduce notes of caution around the principals.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest where being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field, including all four principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around the home turn. The key question is whether any horse can find enough from off the pace in a race that may not truly test stamina over this intermediate trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Al Mootamarid KTB Selection69/100
Al Mootamarid is a useful performer who has won once from four runs at Stratford. He has been consistent this year without winning, finishing in the first three on three of his last five starts, though he steps up in trip today having been largely campaigned at two miles. Only one win from 15 runs on good ground adds a note of caution. The Ryan Hatch yard boasts a 100% strike rate at Stratford from its small sample with an A/E of 4.5, while Robert Dunne rides at a 9% strike rate here. Held up with high confidence in that run-style, he will be produced late off what is expected to be a steady gallop.
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2Crown of India55/100
Crown of India is a useful performer who has been knocking on the door this season with a win and several placed efforts from his last six starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him, while this is also his first run at Stratford. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here, with Alex Hales at 9% and Bryan Carver at 10%. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race that lacks an obvious leader.
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3Teorie51/100
Teorie is a useful performer on his best days and has solid recent ratings to back that up. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and now drops back in trip to something he has never tried, which asks a fresh question. The yard has a 20% strike-rate here from 54 runs while Jonathan Burke is operating at 10% from 115 rides at Stratford. Usually held up with high confidence, he will need to time his run well in what is set to be a tactical affair.
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4Seraphic51/100
Seraphic is a useful performer on the balance of ratings and race history with a solid placed effort on his most recent start. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question while his record on good ground shows him competitive without a win from eight runs. The yard hold a 15% strike rate at Stratford and Kielan Woods is operating at 17% here. Dropping in class, he is usually held up with high confidence and should be produced late.
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5Lady Dapple Rose51/100
Lady Dapple Rose is a useful mare who has shown enough in stronger company to suggest she can be competitive in this grade. The Ben Pauling yard fires at a solid 24% strike rate at Stratford though the jockey is operating at a more modest 10%. She drops back in trip today for the first time while her record on good ground reads a bare four runs with no win or place.
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6Lord Cauvelliere49/100
Lord Cauvelliere is a fair performer who has already won over this course. Recent form has been patchy and the drop back in trip today asks a fresh question. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate here is a negative while the jockey's solid 18% record at Stratford offers some compensation.
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7Yanka Blue45/100
Yanka Blue is a fair performer who has shown some consistency without winning. He has placed both here and at today's trip though remains winless in both, and has only one placing from 11 runs on good ground. Trainer is still seeking a first Stratford winner from six previous attempts while the jockey has a solid 25% strike rate at the track.
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8Granny B37/100
Granny B is a fair mare who has shown consistent but limited ability, placing on good ground four times from 18 starts without winning. She has run five times at Stratford without placing, though the yard's small-sample record here makes that hard to weigh up. The trip is still a question as she has only tried it once, while the 3lb claimer adds a bit of assistance.
KTB verdict
Al Mootamarid is the KTB Selection. He brings a course win, consistent placed form this season and the highest Fit score in a race where his trainer's perfect record at Stratford stands out. The step up in trip is the main unknown, yet his held-up style looks suited to the expected steady pace. Crown of India, Teorie and Seraphic are the main dangers, each with solid ratings but their own trip or track queries to answer.
KTB Selection Al Mootamarid
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 17 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Al Mootamarid | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Crown of India | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Teorie | 15/8 | William Hill |
| Seraphic | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Lady Dapple Rose | 15/8 | William Hill |
| Lord Cauvelliere | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Yanka Blue | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Granny B | 18/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:18 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Stratford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Stratford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, meaning no one obviously wants the lead and a steadily-run affair is likely in which being handy pays.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All four principals — Al Mootamarid, Crown of India, Teorie and Seraphic — are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Stratford?
Al Mootamarid's trainer Ryan Hatch has a 100% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 4.5 from one run.
Which runner is dropping in class?
Both Seraphic and Granny B are dropping in class.
Who has the strongest jockey record at the track among the principals?
Kielan Woods has a 17% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 1.18 from 187 rides when riding Seraphic.
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