3:35 Curragh
This 1m4f amateur riders Derby at the Curragh on yielding ground brings together a competitive field of ten where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by a pair on 61, with the selection Absurde and Sirius both carrying strong Mullins connections, while the next three are separated by only nine points on the KTB scale. With the race lacking an obvious leader the overall KTB numbers point to a tactical, steadily-run affair in which positioning and timing of the challenge could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates no natural front-runner, suggesting a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy to the pace should pay dividends. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late, though the lack of early speed may compress the field and place a premium on finding a clear run. Hunters Run and Mister Adam are the only runners likely to settle in mid-division, potentially giving them an initial advantage in a race where the key question is whether the held-up brigade can negotiate the steadily-run gallop effectively enough to land a telling blow.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Absurde KTB Selection61/100
Absurde is a smart performer with an official rating of 106 who has been placed at the Curragh but is now 0-3 here without a win. He drops back from 2m1f to 1m4f, a distance he has tried once without success, and goes in first-time headgear on yielding ground where he has been competitive once from three runs. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer W. P. Mullins records an 11% strike rate at Curragh from 405 runs while jockey Mr P W Mullins boasts a 35% strike rate at the track from 17 rides. The combination of the trainer and jockey record reads 811/2491 (33%) with an A/E of 0.92.
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2Sirius61/100
Sirius is a useful performer with an official rating of 93 who has won over this trip and on yielding ground. He has course winning form here from four runs and looks well placed dropped back from his latest 2m1f effort. The 7-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer W. P. Mullins has an 11% strike rate at Curragh from 405 runs while jockey Mr David Dunsdon has a 100% strike rate at the track from one ride. The trainer and jockey record stands at 4/22 (18%) with an A/E of 0.88.
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3Contorsion59/100
Contorsion is a useful performer with an official rating of 90 who showed clear promise when winning on debut at this trip last season. He has run only twice since, finishing a modest fifth at 1m6f on reappearance, so the drop back in distance looks a positive move. The 4-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late though with limited evidence. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien strikes at 11% here from 1402 runs while the jockey Mr J L Gleeson is 33% at the track from six rides. The trainer and jockey record is 14/49 (29%) with an A/E of 1.05.
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4Bay of Stars51/100
Bay of Stars is a fair performer with an official rating of 86 who has shown solid placed form this season including a win at this trip. Dropping back from 1m6f should suit after a modest effort last time though the first-time headgear is an unknown. The 3-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer D K Weld has an 11% strike rate at Curragh from 3641 runs while jockey Mr Finian Maguire is 13% at the track from eight rides. The trainer and jockey record reads 15/52 (29%) with an A/E of 1.06.
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5Puppet Master50/100
Puppet Master is a useful performer with an official rating of 92 who has solid recent form including an 8th and 5th in stronger company. He has shown up in three runs at the Curragh without placing and is 1-3 on this trip though he steps back up in distance from his latest start. The 4-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Ciaran Murphy has a 5% strike rate at Curragh from 55 runs while jockey Mr D McGill is unproven at the track. The trainer and jockey record is 1/7 (14%).
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6Shosholoza48/100
Shosholoza is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has looked short of his best in recent runs. He has failed to place in two starts at this track and is dropping back in trip to 1m4f having last run over 2m1f, which asks a fresh question. The 3-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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7Hunters Run45/100
Hunters Run is a modest performer who has shown some ability on the Flat with two wins from eight starts and a placed effort at today's trip. He drops back in trip from his latest run while making his first appearance at Curragh on yielding ground on which he is unproven. The 5-year-old typically settles in midfield.
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8The Mediator43/100
The Mediator is a fair performer who has placed three times from six runs at the Curragh without winning. He has shown consistent placed form on yielding ground and has been placed three times at today's trip though his latest efforts came over much further. The 9-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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9Mister Adam43/100
Mister Adam is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third and fourth from two runs here. He has won one of his two starts at this trip and his recent form includes a win and two placings over similar distances last year though he was well held on his latest outing. The 4-year-old typically settles in midfield.
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10Narlita39/100
Narlita is a fair mare who has been placed three times from five runs at the Curragh including two seconds. She has won twice at this trip from 17 attempts and is dropping back from 1m4½f though her recent form of 405073 is ordinary. The 7-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late.
KTB verdict
Absurde is the KTB selection in a race where the principals are closely matched on the numbers. The selection brings smart ability to the table along with the first-time headgear and the powerful Mullins combination that has strong recent Curragh figures for both trainer and jockey. He is joined at the top of the KTB Fit scores by Sirius, who has course winning form and looks well placed back at this trip. Contorsion, Bay of Stars and Puppet Master are the other main dangers, with the steadily-run nature of the race likely to suit those who can time their late runs to perfection.
KTB Selection Absurde
This is the narrative read of the 3:35 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Curragh results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Curragh racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first appearance in headgear?
Absurde goes in first-time headgear and Bay of Stars also runs in first-time headgear.
How many horses in the field are unproven on yielding ground?
Contorsion, Shosholoza, Hunters Run and Mister Adam have no runs on yielding ground.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at the Curragh among those represented?
W. P. Mullins has an 11% strike rate at Curragh from 405 runs, matching the 11% recorded by Joseph Patrick O'Brien from 1402 runs and D K Weld from 3641 runs.
Which jockey has recorded a 100% strike rate at the Curragh?
Mr David Dunsdon has a 100% strike rate at Curragh from one ride.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All five principals are held-up types: Absurde, Sirius, Contorsion, Bay of Stars and Puppet Master.
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