3:37 Ayr
This Class 3 novices' limited handicap steeplechase at Ayr over 2m0f110y on good to soft ground brings together six runners, several of whom are stepping up in class. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with He's Bresilian heading the numbers on 75, just ahead of Tales of Bravery on 73, while Soldante and Platin Moon sit on 65 and 64 respectively. Overall the race features several smart performers in recent form, though questions of trip, ground and the step up in class will be central to how it unfolds.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, the pace shape is strongly positive and a strong gallop is expected. He's Bresilian, Tales of Bravery, Platin Moon and The Hatchet all tend to make the running or race prominently, which could set up a test that collapses late and plays into the hands of any horse capable of coming from further back. The key question is whether the early pace will prove too hot for the front-runners or whether one of them can dictate and stretch the field.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1He's Bresilian KTB Selection75/100
He's Bresilian arrives as the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 75 and is a smart performer in solid form, having recorded three wins from his last five starts. He already boasts a placing over this course and distance, and holds a strong record on good to soft ground with one win from four runs and four placings overall. The step up in trip today does pose a fresh question, yet his tendency to make the running or race on the pace should see him prominent in a race where the pace is likely to be strong. Trainer Jedd O'Keeffe has an 11% strike rate at Ayr from 150 runs while jockey Sean Quinlan posts a 12% strike rate from 322 rides at the track; their combined 10/26 (38%) record together is noteworthy. Stepping up in class, the six-year-old carries an OR of 119 and recent form figures of 61213-.
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2Tales of Bravery73/100
Tales of Bravery is rated a high-class performer on the figures with a KTB Fit of 73 and comes into this with a solid recent record that includes a win and a second from his last four completed starts. He steps up in trip today but has already won at this distance, and his full brother Bluey showed useful stamina while the dam has produced another winner. On good to soft ground he has been placed once from two runs without winning. Trainer Dan Skelton has a 24% strike rate at Ayr from 128 runs, in line with his general record, though jockey Tristan Durrell has no recorded rides at the track. Stepping up in class from an OR of 123 with recent form figures of /6312-, his front-running style means he will be one of those setting the strong pace.
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3Soldante65/100
Soldante is another high-class performer according to KTB with a Fit score of 65 and a solid recent record that features two wins from his last five starts. He drops back in trip today having won twice at this distance in the past, although he remains unproven on good to soft ground. His prominent run-style sees him usually race handily on or close to the lead, which could be vulnerable if the strong pace collapses late. Trainer Ciaran Murphy and jockey Kevin Healy both have only one previous run at Ayr, a sample too small to judge, though the yard's 2/9 (22%) record with this jockey is respectable. Carrying an OR of 122 with recent form figures of -31351, he is stepping up in class at the age of eight.
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4Platin Moon64/100
Platin Moon is a useful performer with a KTB Fit of 64 who has won two of his three starts at Ayr and drops back to a trip he has won at twice from five attempts. He possesses a solid recent record and is competitive on good to soft ground without having won on it, with two placings from three runs. The yard and jockey both hold above-average strike rates at the track, N. W. Alexander at 13% from 792 runs and Bruce Lynn at 14% from 194 rides, while their combined 75/647 (12%) record is in line with expectations. His front-running style will see him involved in the strong early pace. Stepping up in class from an OR of 104 with recent form figures of 5131P-, the five-year-old has course-winning form to his name.
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5Jeune Prince49/100
Jeune Prince is a smart performer who won here over fences from two starts at Ayr and drops back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance on his last four outings. He is unproven on good to soft ground, steps up in class from an OR of 114 with recent form figures of 54321/, and his prominent run-style should see him race handily. Half-brother to Good Look Charm who won five times from 25 runs, with the dam producing two other winners from four runners. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 12-13% strike rate at Ayr in line with their records elsewhere.
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6The Hatchet49/100
The Hatchet is a smart performer who has placed on both starts at Ayr without winning and steps up in trip today having won at this distance before, while holding a solid record on good to soft ground with one win from five runs and two placings. Lucinda Russell and Jack Power both operate at their usual level here with respective 12% and 13% strike rates at Ayr. He steps up in class from an OR of 114 with recent form figures of 3623P- and tends to race on the pace, which will put him in the thick of the strong early gallop.
KTB verdict
He's Bresilian is the KTB Selection and arrives in the best of the current form with three wins from his last five starts, a placing over course and distance, and a strong record on good to soft ground that matches the conditions. His front-running style should ensure he is well placed to handle the strong pace that is anticipated, even with the step up in trip posing a question. The main dangers are likely to come from Tales of Bravery, whose high-class figures, recent win and brotherly stamina links make him a major player if he can cope with the early tempo, while Soldante's proven record at the trip and Platin Moon's course form cannot be dismissed. The race could be decided by which of the prominent runners handles the late collapse best.
KTB Selection He's Bresilian
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:07am, 31 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| He's Bresilian | 3/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Tales of Bravery | 5/2 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Soldante | 3/1 | William Hill, 12:00am |
| Platin Moon | 13/2 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Jeune Prince | 12/1 | William Hill, 12:00am |
| The Hatchet | 13/2 | 7Bet, 12:00am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:37 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ayr racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already placed over the course and distance?
He's Bresilian has placed over course and distance here.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are declared, making a strong pace likely with high confidence.
Which runner is dropping back in trip after winning twice at this distance previously?
Soldante drops back in trip today having won twice at this distance in the past.
Who has the highest strike rate at Ayr among the trainers in this race?
Dan Skelton operates at a 24% strike rate at Ayr from 128 runs.
Which horse has won two of its three starts at Ayr?
Platin Moon has won two of his three starts at Ayr.
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