3:40 Perth
This Class 4 RacingTV Handicap Steeple Chase (Div I) over 2m4f20y at Perth on good to soft ground brings together nine runners, several of whom are dropping in class after showing smart or high-class form in stronger company. The KTB Fit ratings highlight a competitive heat led by Orderoftheday on 68, with Minella Marathon, Lermoos Legend and Tanking Along close behind on 65, 61 and 58 respectively. Overall the numbers point to a race where recent winners and course specialists from the Murphy and Skelton yards could hold the key.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by multiple habitual front-runners including Orderoftheday, Tanking Along and Tommys Law. This setup suggests the leaders could go hard early and the race may collapse late, playing into the hands of hold-up performers such as Lermoos Legend, Hombre de Guerra, Moyganny Phil, Bridge Court and Heads Or Harps. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms without overdoing it, or if the race shape will allow the patient types to pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Orderoftheday KTB Selection68/100
Orderoftheday is a high-class performer who arrives in excellent order after a ready recent win at this trip. He has already shown strong form around here and benefits from a yard and jockey who both strike at over 30% at Perth. The Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen combination carries real weight, with the trainer posting a 30% strike rate at the track from 210 runs and the jockey a 31% strike rate from 354 rides. Going suitability remains unknown on the balance of just seven runs, though he has been placed once from one start on good to soft. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently, he is ideally placed to take advantage of the strong pace shape. Dropping in class from an OR of 120 with recent form of 1343-1, he is the KTB Selection.
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2Minella Marathon65/100
Minella Marathon is a smart performer who showed real promise when winning on debut before two creditable efforts in stronger company. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried, which asks a fresh question of him from an OR of 116. The Dan Skelton yard and Harry Skelton partnership bring strong Perth records, the trainer at 33% strike rate and the jockey at 29%. He has a win and a place from two starts on good to soft ground, fitting the conditions well despite no course form on record. Typically settling in midfield, he could be well suited if the strong pace collapses late. His recent form reads 1/176- and he is dropping in class.
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3Lermoos Legend61/100
Lermoos Legend is a smart performer who has been knocking on the door this season with four seconds in his last six starts. He has course experience here though only a modest third on his sole visit and is now dropping back from 3m to a trip where he has placed but never won. The Mickey Bowen yard and James Bowen partnership both operate at a solid 25% strike rate at Perth. With two wins from eight starts on good to soft and four placed efforts, he handles the ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the type to benefit if the strong pace collapses. Recent form of 222F2P comes from an OR of 112 while dropping in class.
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4Tanking Along58/100
Tanking Along is a smart performer with solid recent form including a win last time and consistent placings before that. He has been placed twice from four runs at Perth without winning and is only one from four on good to soft ground, where he has been competitive. The Patrick Neville and Brian Hughes team bring respective Perth strike rates of 18% and 16%. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, he will be prominent in a race expected to be strongly run. Dropping back in trip today asks a fresh question though he has placed at this distance before. His recent form is 3-2251 from an OR of 110.
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5Hombre de Guerra55/100
Hombre de Guerra is a high-class performer on his day with solid ratings to back that up. He has placed at today's trip and shown he handles good to soft ground with a win and two places from four starts, though the Lucinda Russell and Patrick Wadge combination has modest strike rates at Perth.
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6Tommys Law50/100
Tommys Law is a smart performer who has finished a close second on both previous visits to Perth. He has been consistent on good to soft ground and drops back in trip after his latest run over three miles, with the yard's modest strike rate here a negative but the jockey's record solid.
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7Moyganny Phil47/100
Moyganny Phil is a useful performer who showed his best when winning at this trip on good to soft ground last season. He has already been tried here without success and his recent unseated adds a note of caution, though the Olly Murphy yard's strong 30% strike rate at Perth is a clear plus.
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8Bridge Court43/100
Bridge Court is a smart performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts. He drops back in trip having failed to land a blow at this distance in two previous attempts, while his record on good to soft is solid but winless and the Sandy Thomson yard has only had one previous runner here.
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9Heads Or Harps42/100
Heads Or Harps is a smart performer who has been knocking on the door this season with a string of placed efforts. He has never won at this trip in five attempts and has failed to place in four runs on good to soft ground so those are both concerns, with the Lucinda Russell yard and Derek Fox both having modest records at Perth.
KTB verdict
Orderoftheday stands out as the KTB Selection. A high-class performer in excellent order after a ready recent win at this trip, he has already shown strong form around here and is backed by a yard and jockey both operating at over 30% at Perth. The strong pace shape should suit his front-running style, allowing him to dictate on good to soft conditions while dropping in class. His main dangers are likely to be Minella Marathon, who brings smart form and strong Perth connections despite the trip query, and Lermoos Legend, who has been consistently knocking on the door and can benefit from a late collapse. Tanking Along, with his course placings and prominent run-style, completes the main quartet of interest.
KTB Selection Orderoftheday
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Perth racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Hold-up horses such as Lermoos Legend, Hombre de Guerra, Moyganny Phil, Bridge Court and Heads Or Harps are favoured if the strong pace collapses late.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
At least three habitual front-runners in Orderoftheday, Tanking Along and Tommys Law point to a strongly run race.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Perth in this field?
Olly Murphy has a 30% strike rate at Perth from 210 runs, with Dan Skelton at 33% from a smaller sample of 51 runs.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Orderoftheday, Minella Marathon, Lermoos Legend, Hombre de Guerra and Bridge Court are all dropping in class.
Which horse has the most course experience at Perth?
Tanking Along has four runs here with two seconds, while Lermoos Legend, Tommys Law and Moyganny Phil have each had one or two visits.
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