3:40 Ripon
This Class 2 Ripon Rowels Handicap over a mile on good ground brings together nine runners where the KTB Fit scores point to a competitive but not impossible task for the top-weighted principals. Thunder Roar tops the KTB rankings on 64 with English Oak, Mirsky and Milteye closely grouped behind on 55-52, while the remainder sit between 52 and 45. The race features several hold-up performers in a field that includes course winners and horses stepping up in class, with the overall numbers suggesting a contest that will hinge on how the strong pace materialises.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is assessed as strong with high confidence, and the early fractions could be testing. Mirsky and Mr Professor are both inclined to race on or near the lead while Majestic Dane is likely to track that pace from a handy position. This setup should favour the hold-up horses such as Thunder Roar, English Oak, Milteye, Spoken Truth and Racingbreaks Ryder, posing the key question of whether the leaders will fold late enough to allow the closers to strike in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Thunder Roar KTB Selection64/100
Thunder Roar is a useful performer who has been out of form on his last four starts after a solid second earlier in the campaign. He drops back to a trip he has won at twice from 18 attempts while the yard holds a solid 16% strike rate at Ripon from 38 runs. He has placed twice from three runs on good ground but makes his first appearance here today. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the seven-year-old should be suited by the strong pace that is anticipated. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 17/143 record with an A/E of 0.96, and the trainer's local record at this venue adds encouragement. Recent form of 2-7000 underlines the need to recapture that earlier promise.
-
2English Oak55/100
English Oak is a useful performer who has shown strong form this year with two wins from his last six starts. He has a solid record at this trip with two wins from eight runs and acts on good ground having won twice from eleven starts. The yard's small sample at Ripon makes their record hard to judge while this is the horse's first run here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he should appreciate the strong pace on offer. The trainer and jockey show a 0/5 record together, and the jockey is yet to score from his one ride at the track. Recent form of 116020 confirms his competitiveness at this level when on song.
-
3Mirsky53/100
Mirsky is a useful performer who has dropped to a mark that looks more realistic after a string of modest efforts this year. Has won over today's trip but his record on good ground is only modest and he has never been seen at Ripon before. O'Meara has a solid 15% strike-rate here while Winn is yet to score from his handful of rides at the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be prominent early in what is expected to be a strong gallop. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 57/513 record with an A/E of 0.92. Recent form of 007999 highlights the need for a return to his best.
-
4Milteye52/100
Milteye is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He has shown solid form on good ground with two wins and five places from 11 starts while the trainer holds a 24% strike rate at Ripon from 21 runs. Recent form of 1-0185 suggests he needs to bounce back from a modest effort last time. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the step up in class adds a question but his course record of one win from two starts is a positive. The trainer and jockey show a 4/9 record together. His ability to act on good ground and prior success at Ripon keep him in the picture.
-
5Spoken Truth52/100
Spoken Truth is a fair handicapper who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing placed on three of his last six starts. He has course form here having been second on his only visit to Ripon, while the trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at the track from a large sample. Dropping back to 1m raises a question as he has been unsuccessful at the trip before, though first-time headgear could sharpen him up on good ground where he has shown some competitiveness. Usually held up, he steps up in class.
-
6Firefall52/100
Firefall is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent placed effort at this trip on his second start. He showed promise when winning on debut and has enough about him to be competitive in this field, though he remains lightly raced and not fully exposed. The trainer holds a 25 percent strike rate at Ripon from 68 runs. He has been placed once from one run on good ground.
-
7Racingbreaks Ryder51/100
Racingbreaks Ryder is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip from 19 starts and looks at home on good ground with a win and a placing from five runs. He arrives in decent nick having won twice this year yet looks vulnerable in this higher grade off his current mark. The Hills yard has a solid 21% strike rate at Ripon while Murphy is aboard. Usually held up, he steps up in class.
-
8Mr Professor45/100
Mr Professor is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with two solid placed efforts from his last three starts. He has won at this trip and is competitive on good ground having been placed twice from 13 starts. The trainer holds an 11% strike rate at Ripon from nine runs while this is the horse's first appearance here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he steps up in class.
-
9Majestic Dane45/100
Majestic Dane is a fair performer who showed promise when winning on debut over 7f before finishing second next time. Steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Ripon from a big sample. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, and he steps up in class with no experience of good ground.
KTB verdict
Thunder Roar is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who showed promise with a second earlier this season, he drops back to a trip he has won twice before and is ideally suited by the strong pace that should unfold given his hold-up style. The yard's healthy record at Ripon adds confidence despite his lack of previous course experience. His main dangers are English Oak, who has shown strong form this year with two wins from six starts and a good record at the trip, and Mirsky, who has dropped to a more realistic mark and is likely to set the pace. Milteye cannot be ruled out either given his course win and solid record on good ground.
KTB Selection Thunder Roar
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 31 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder Roar | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| English Oak | 17/2 | William Hill |
| Mirsky | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Milteye | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Spoken Truth | 11/4 | William Hill |
| Firefall | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Racingbreaks Ryder | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Mr Professor | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Majestic Dane | 4/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ripon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Thunder Roar is best suited by the expected strong pace as he is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
Which horses are likely to set or contest the early pace?
Mirsky tends to make the running or race on the pace, Mr Professor tends to make the running or race on the pace, and Majestic Dane usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Which runner has course form at Ripon?
Milteye has won here from two starts and Spoken Truth has been second on his only visit to Ripon.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ripon in this field?
Harriet Bethell has a 24% strike rate at Ripon from 21 runs.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Spoken Truth is wearing first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies