3:50 Stratford
The J.H. Rowe Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase at Stratford is a Class 5 contest over 2m6f125y on soft ground, featuring a compact but competitive field of six. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with One Last Glance heading the list on 54, followed closely by Moor End on 52 and then Dunworley and Pescatorius both on 50. This suggests a race where small margins and how the strong pace unfolds will be decisive, particularly with the soft conditions testing stamina and adaptability.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up. Dunworley and Pescatorius are both inclined to make the running or race prominently, while Great d'Ange will be on their heels from a prominent position. This early speed could set the race up for hold-up performers, with One Last Glance typically produced late and Moor End and Ithaka settling in midfield. The key question is whether the pace collapses late on the soft ground, handing the advantage to those who can time their run from off the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1One Last Glance KTB Selection54/100
One Last Glance is a useful performer who won over this course and trip on his penultimate start and has placed on soft ground four times from ten attempts. His recent form of U2412- underlines consistency at this level without quite landing the big one, though the placed effort at today's trip is a positive. Tom Gretton has an 8% strike rate at Stratford from 91 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while Conor O'Farrell has limited course experience with a 5% strike rate from 73 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace likely to unfold. Rated OR 100 and with a course win already in the book from three runs, he holds every chance in a race where the KTB Fit Score of 54 marks him out as the top pick.
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2Moor End52/100
Moor End is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after a win and two placed efforts from his last four completed starts, as shown by his recent figures of 322U1-. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried before and has only one run on soft ground which produced no win or place. The yard has a 4% strike rate at Stratford from 26 runs which is in line with their record at other courses, and Lilly Pinchin has a 6% strike rate at the track from 81 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he will look to pick up the pieces if the strong pace takes its toll late on. Rated OR 97, his overall profile suggests he can be competitive but the trip and ground both come with question marks.
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3Dunworley50/100
Dunworley is a fair performer who showed decent form on his return from a long absence when finishing second at this trip last year. He pulled up on his only previous run here and the yard is 0 from 12 at Stratford. Dropping back from three miles today having won at this distance on his sole attempt, he is likely to set the pace or race prominently in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. He has placed once from three runs on soft ground without winning and now carries a 3lb claimer in Tom Broughton, who has a 24% strike rate at Stratford from 21 rides. Rated OR 88, his ability to lead could be an asset but the course record and trainer figures add negatives to his profile.
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4Pescatorius50/100
Pescatorius is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and two placed efforts from his last three starts, reflected in his recent form of 35-321. He has already won over this course and the trainer’s 7% strike rate at Stratford from 136 runs is above their record elsewhere, with Robert Dunne adding a 9% strike rate at the track from 150 rides. Yet he has never placed in six runs on soft ground and now steps up in trip having failed to trouble the judge when tried at this distance before. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be right up there early in what is set to be a strong gallop. Rated OR 90, the KTB Fit Score of 50 captures a horse that can be competitive but carries clear negatives on the going and the longer trip.
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5Ithaka49/100
Ithaka is a useful performer who arrives off the back of two pulled-ups but showed his ability with a second at this trip on soft ground last spring. Dropping back from three miles today having already won once at the distance, he is dropping in class and typically settles in midfield. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Stratford from 95 runs in line with overall figures, while Jonathan Burke is making a first appearance at the track.
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6Great d'Ange38/100
Great d'Ange is a useful performer who has placed at this trip without winning and has shown some ability at Stratford with a second and a fourth from four runs. Dropping back from 3m2f today while his two efforts on soft ground have produced no win or place, he usually races handily on or close to the lead. The trainer is 0 from 6 at the track and the jockey is 0 from 2 here.
KTB verdict
One Last Glance stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 54 in a race where the numbers are otherwise very close. His course-and-distance win, placed form on soft ground and hold-up style that should be favoured by the strong pace all point to him being the one to beat. The selection has shown consistent form at this level and the trainer-jockey combination, while not prolific here, is in line with their general records. Main dangers are likely to come from Moor End, who brings solid recent form, and the front-running pair of Dunworley and Pescatorius, who could set it up for a late closer if the pace tells late on the soft ground.
KTB Selection One Last Glance
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| One Last Glance | 11/4 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Moor End | 11/4 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Dunworley | 16/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Pescatorius | 5/2 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Ithaka | 7/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Great d'Ange | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:50 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Stratford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Stratford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form?
One Last Glance won over this course and trip on his penultimate start.
How many front-runners are in the field and what does this mean for the race shape?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, making a strong pace likely that could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runner is dropping in class?
Ithaka is dropping in class.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Stratford among the principals?
Tom Broughton has a 24% strike rate at Stratford from 21 rides.
Which horse has never placed on soft ground?
Pescatorius has never placed in six runs on soft ground.
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