Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.61).
Deterministic profile computed from 305 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 6.3%Charlie Hammond: 6.8% from 146
The read
The record is strongest at Doncaster (9.4%, n=32), clear of the yard's 5.9% baseline. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 2.8% (n=106, Fair A/E 0.29). Charlie Hammond rides 48% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.8%, A/E 0.70). The yard also reads well in Class 3 (11.6%, n=43). The stable star of the record: Erne River (IRE) — 5 wins from 29 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.3%+0.4
n=96 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −25.92
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.9
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.9
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%+4.1
n=10 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.7%+0.8
n=15 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −11.25
When favourite
11.1%
n=18 · A/E 0.35 · £1 −12.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.8%−3.1
n=106 · A/E 0.29 · £1 −81.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With C&D winners12.9% vs 5.9% · n=31
In Class 311.6% vs 5.9% · n=43
With claiming riders up2.8% vs 5.9% · n=106
With horses switching code2.3% vs 5.9% · n=44
On Good to Soft going8.7% vs 5.9% · n=103
At Doncaster9.4% vs 5.9% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle15096%−61.92
Chase13296.8%−65.17
NH Flat1800%−18.00
Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good11943.4%−96.25
Good to Soft10398.7%−6.17
Soft6857.4%−32.67
Heavy800%−8.00
Standard (AW)600%−6.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Market Rasen7345.5%−14.17
Doncaster3239.4%−8.50
Wetherby2528%−14.50
Southwell2100%−21.00
Huntingdon2015%−11.50
Catterick17317.6%−1.17
Aintree1500%−15.00
Uttoxeter1417.1%−10.25
Newcastle10110%−2.50
Bangor-on-Dee900%−9.00
Carlisle9222.2%+12.00
Sandown800%−8.00
Warwick600%−6.00
Haydock600%−6.00
Worcester500%−5.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 412764.7%−51.17
Class 510376.8%−50.75
Class 343511.6%−16.17
Class 21700%−17.00
Class 11300%−13.00
Class 6200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite18211.1%0.35−12.75
2nd–3rd fav56610.7%0.59−24.34
4th–6th fav12986.2%0.76−67.00
7th+ in betting10222%0.68−46.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f10576.7%−28.00
2m5f – 3m9888.2%−40.92
1m5f – 2m7134.2%−50.17
Over 3m2700%−27.00
6f – 7f300%−3.00
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202253815.1%+24.66
20236557.7%−17.00
20247722.6%−63.50
20256822.9%−58.75
20264212.4%−35.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps234177.3%−80.59
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners1081110.2%−43.09
8-10 runners10232.9%−82.00
11-13 runners5335.7%+2.00
14-16 runners2214.5%−7.00
2-4 runners1400%−14.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 39 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 39 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tom George (4) and Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm (2); 21 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard; 36 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
71442400020096
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
56
Archived wins
£666k
Prize money
2022
Best season · 8 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Erne River (IRE) — Sky Bet Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Doncaster · Jan 2022 · Class 3
£11,273
Gonalston Cloud (IRE) — Clugston Lincolnshire National Handicap Chase Market Rasen · Dec 2016 · Class 3
£9,747
Who's In The Box (IRE) — Lincolnshire National Handicap Chase Market Rasen · Dec 2020 · Class 3
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,913 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,003 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,003 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 March 2005 to 16 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Nick Kent's strike rate?
Nick Kent has won 18 of 305 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nick Kent do best at?
Doncaster by strike rate: 3 wins from 32 runners (9.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Nick Kent?
Charlie Hammond, with 146 runners since 2022 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (6.8%).
Is Nick Kent in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Nick Kent's Fair A/E?
0.61, from 304 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Nick Kent·SR 5.9%·A/E 0.61
KTB
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