Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.43). With a claiming rider up the record reads 17% (42 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 147 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceJames Best: 5.8% from 69Claiming riders: 16.7%
The read
Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 16.7% (n=42, Fair A/E 2.08). James Best rides 47% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (5.8% vs 10.2%, A/E 0.94). The yard also reads well in Chase races (18.8%, n=69) and on Good to Soft going (17.1%, n=41). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 3.2% over 63 runners, 7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Midnight Charmer (GB) — 6 wins from 42 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10%−0.2
n=40 · A/E 2.33 · £1 +15.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−10.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.2
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.2
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
60%
n=5 · A/E 2.30 · £1 +5.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
16.7%+6.5
n=42 · A/E 2.08 · £1 +17.60
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Chase races18.8% vs 10.2% · n=69
With Harrison Beswick18.8% vs 10.2% · n=32
In Hurdle races3.2% vs 10.2% · n=63
On Good to Soft going17.1% vs 10.2% · n=41
With claiming riders up16.7% vs 10.2% · n=42
Over 1m5f – 2m5.7% vs 10.2% · n=70
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase691318.8%+33.60
Hurdle6323.2%−38.50
NH Flat1500%−15.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good5946.8%−8.00
Good to Soft41717.1%+18.85
Soft25312%−13.25
Heavy2214.5%−17.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Huntingdon17211.8%−10.25
Southwell1500%−15.00
Fontwell12216.7%+1.60
Taunton1119.1%+6.00
Ludlow11218.2%+15.00
Warwick1000%−10.00
Uttoxeter9111.1%+3.00
Wincanton9333.3%+9.25
Hereford800%−8.00
Chepstow8225%+15.00
Bangor-on-Dee6116.7%−1.50
Fakenham6116.7%+0.00
Lingfield600%−6.00
Stratford500%−5.00
Leicester500%−5.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 5881213.6%+15.35
Class 45335.7%−29.25
Class 3400%−4.00
Class 1200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6466.7%2.66+9.00
2nd–3rd fav20315%0.84−1.90
4th–6th fav49510.2%1.28+1.00
7th+ in betting7234.2%1.96−28.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m7045.7%−19.50
2m1f – 2m4f47612.8%−10.15
2m5f – 3m17211.8%−3.00
Over 3m13323.1%+12.75
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202224520.8%+17.35
202333515.2%+0.75
20243825.3%−12.00
20253625.6%−18.00
20261616.3%−8.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps991515.2%+28.10
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners53713.2%−14.00
5-7 runners3538.6%−4.40
11-13 runners3013.3%−15.00
14-16 runners20210%+9.00
17+ runners6116.7%+1.50
2-4 runners3133.3%+3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 20 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 20 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Martyn Meade (2); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
191011800···50611
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→
47
Archived wins
£319k
Prize money
2015
Best season · 6 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Back By Midnight (GB) — Tokio Marine Kiln Handicap Chase Sandown · Dec 2016 · Class 3
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,531 runs since 2008 (290 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 221. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.3% from 289. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 110. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Desir D'un Soir (FR)19% · 4–21
Progeny have won 19.6% of 102 runs since 2008 (8 horses).
Haafhd (GB)4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 10.9% of 4,750 runs since 2008 (305 horses).
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,628 runs since 2008 (842 horses).
Midnight Legend (GB)25% · 3–12
Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,309 runs since 2008 (494 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 584 · newest first
The latest 50 of 584 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 April 2007 to 13 April 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Emma-Jane Bishop's strike rate?
Emma-Jane Bishop has won 15 of 147 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Emma-Jane Bishop?
James Best, with 69 runners since 2022 — 47% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (5.8%).
What is Emma-Jane Bishop's Fair A/E?
1.43, from 147 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Emma-Jane Bishop·SR 10.2%·A/E 1.43
KTB
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