What is Lilly Pinchin's strike rate?

Lilly Pinchin has won 85 of 750 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.3% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lilly Pinchin do best at?

Fontwell by strike rate: 7 wins from 34 rides (20.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Lilly Pinchin ride most for?

Charlie Longsdon, with 353 rides since 2022 — 47% of the total. That pairing has won 48 (13.6%).

Is Lilly Pinchin in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 12 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Lilly Pinchin's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 749 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Lilly Pinchin

750 rides in the last 5 seasons · 294 individual horses

As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)

from 1 Jan 2022

85–750

Wins / Runs

11.3%

Strike rate

n=750

205 (27%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=749 · 0.92 incl. margin

−221.24

£1 level stake

n=750 at SP · −29.5%

£921k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 150 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.06). When claiming the record reads 15% (278 rides). Rides mostly for Charlie Longsdon — 47% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 750 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 10 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Sep–Nov 34% when favourite Charlie Longsdon: 13.6% from 353 First rides: 11.4% Claiming: 14.7% Rides the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Fontwell (20.6%, n=34), clear of the rider's 11.3% baseline. It is weakest at Worcester (6.5% over 46 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Claiming rides have been a positive signal at 14.7% (n=278, Fair A/E 1.16), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.7% (n=89, Fair A/E 1.20). Charlie Longsdon supplies 47% of the rides and edges the rider's average (13.6% vs 11.3%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 4.8% over 42 rides, 6.5pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Raceridecheltenham 'Junior' NH Flat Race at Cheltenham (Jan 2025, £14,238). The standout partner of the record: Midnight Jewel (GB) — 7 wins from 24 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Sep–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.4%+0.1

n=281 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −57.67

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

12.5%+1.2

n=80 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −44.05

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.7%−0.6

n=169 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −72.75

When favourite

34%

n=53 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −0.56

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

14.7%+3.4

n=278 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −64.95

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.7%−4.6

n=89 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −13.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.5%+1.2

n=8 · A/E 1.90 · £1 +9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Fontwell 20.6% vs 11.3% · n=34

Over 1m5f – 2m 6.5% vs 11.3% · n=214

On Heavy going 4.8% vs 11.3% · n=42

With Richard Hobson 5.8% vs 11.3% · n=52

When claiming 14.7% vs 11.3% · n=278

At Worcester 6.5% vs 11.3% · n=46

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 431 42 9.7% −184.35

Chase 271 39 14.4% −32.39

NH Flat 48 4 8.3% −4.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 379 43 11.3% −129.42

Good to Soft 202 21 10.4% −68.40

Soft 117 17 14.5% +12.83

Heavy 42 2 4.8% −35.00

Good to Firm 10 2 20% −1.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Huntingdon 64 9 14.1% −27.84

Stratford 60 5 8.3% −19.75

Uttoxeter 49 7 14.3% −16.47

Worcester 46 3 6.5% −32.00

Hereford 44 4 9.1% −24.58

Warwick 41 4 9.8% −9.38

Fakenham 37 6 16.2% −4.00

Southwell 35 3 8.6% +2.00

Chepstow 35 3 8.6% −8.50

Fontwell 34 7 20.6% +10.00

Market Rasen 27 4 14.8% −1.50

Doncaster 25 0 0% −25.00

Bangor-on-Dee 23 6 26.1% +9.20

Cheltenham 22 3 13.6% +13.00

Newbury 18 1 5.6% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 304 39 12.8% −80.25

Class 5 290 32 11% −78.52

Class 3 91 9 9.9% −35.80

Class 2 46 4 8.7% −24.67

Class 1 17 1 5.9% +0.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 66 21 31.8% 1.12 −2.23

2nd–3rd fav 182 38 20.9% 1.21 +14.99

4th–6th fav 276 18 6.5% 0.79 −116.00

7th+ in betting 226 8 3.5% 1.11 −118.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

85% completed · 702 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 271 82.3% 8 4 36 0 0

Hurdle 431 86.8% 9 4 42 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Midnight Jewel (GB) 24 7 10 19 Aug 26

Maninsane (IRE) 17 2 5 2 Jan 25

Molto Bene (IRE) 16 4 9 7 Nov 26

Stroll On By (IRE) 12 2 4 5 Nov 26

Ikigai Star (IRE) 12 2 2 12 May 26

The Dark Edge (IRE) 12 3 6 7 Oct 25

Edison Kent (IRE) 12 2 5 20 Sep 24

Juan Bermudez (GB) 10 1 4 5 Sep 26

Guguss Collonges (FR) 10 2 3 3 Oct 25

Do Your Job (IRE) 9 1 2 5 Jun 25

Imperial Jade (IRE) 9 1 4 17 Dec 24

Hector Javilex (FR) 9 1 3 3 Oct 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 294 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

3 from 12

Only 12 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

6131061510101315151610

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardCharlie Longsdon

47% of all rides
13.6% SR · A/E 1.12

TrainerRWSR£1

Charlie Longsdon 353 48 13.6% −69.55

James Owen 59 8 13.6% −23.59

Richard Hobson 52 3 5.8% −32.67

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→

116

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.18m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 24 wins

Precious Metal (FR) — Raceridecheltenham 'Junior' NH Flat Race (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Listed) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Jan 2025 · Listed

£14,238

Saint Xavier (FR) — Jewson Widnes Veterans' Handicap Chase Haydock · Nov 2022 · Class 2

£13,082

Hector Javilex (FR) — Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Jan 2023 · Class 2

£13,008

Notable horses

Midnight Jewel (GB) Molto Bene (IRE) Big City Roller (GB) Tea For Free (IRE) The Dark Edge (IRE) Follow The Swallow (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Midnight Legend (GB) 28% · 7–25

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Getaway (GER) 0% · 0–21

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,017 runs since 2016 (1,033 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Passing Glance (GB) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,578 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.

Jukebox Jury (IRE) 22.2% · 4–18

Progeny have won 13.6% of 2,257 runs since 2016 (257 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.3% from 155.

Yeats (IRE) 11.1% · 2–18

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,853 runs since 2013 (708 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Salutino (GER) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 9.1% of 341 runs since 2015 (29 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,031 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,031 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2016 to 9 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

09 Nov 26 Stratford Simply A Dancer (GB)T: Emma-Jane Bishop Trailertrek Towbars Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 300/1

08 Nov 26 Ffos Las The Dancing Blue (IRE)T: Emma-Jane Bishop Fedwen Tentage Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 7th 50/1

07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Molto Bene (IRE)T: Charlie Longsdon Matchbook Loves Racing Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24f · Good · 5 ran 4th 2/1

06 Nov 26 Fontwell Pippin's Legend (GB)T: Charlie Longsdon Weddings At Fontwell Park Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17.5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 11/2

06 Nov 26 Fontwell Steal The Moves (IRE)T: Emma-Jane Bishop Mercedes-Benz Of Chichester Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 11/2

06 Nov 26 Fontwell Glancing Back (GB)T: Emma-Jane Bishop OPC Home Guard Remembrance Handicap Steeple Chase (Fontwell Chase Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 12/1

05 Nov 26 Plumpton Stroll On By (IRE)T: Charlie Longsdon starsportsbet.co.uk Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 4 ran 4th 15/2

05 Nov 26 Plumpton Breezethroughlife (IRE)T: Neil King Bet On-Course With Star Sports Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 4th 7/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Kaproyale (GB)T: Charlie Longsdon Ted Anderson Dixon Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 25/1

29 Oct 26 Stratford Moor End (IRE)T: Emma-Jane Bishop J.H. Rowe Memorial Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 22.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 5/2

29 Oct 26 Stratford River Glance (GB)T: Emma-Jane Bishop Blaze A Trail Stratford Hat-Trick Hero Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 3rd 9/2J

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Star Of Affinity (IRE)T: Joe Tizzard Brewers Decorating Centres Albany Derby Female Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 5/2F

17 Oct 26 Stratford Lucky Sevens (GB)T: James Owen Annual Membership For Christmas Female Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 9/1

13 Oct 26 Southwell Pippin's Legend (GB)T: Charlie Longsdon Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 11 ran 6th 14/1

05 Sep 26 Stratford Juan Bermudez (GB)T: Henry Oliver Rich Ellis's 60th Vinyl Countdown Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 22f · Good · 8 ran 8th 5/1

19 Aug 26 Worcester Midnight Jewel (GB)T: Charlie Longsdon CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 5th 11/2

22 Jul 26 Worcester Midnight Jewel (GB)T: Charlie Longsdon Bathroom Studio Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 5th 28/1

18 Jul 26 Cartmel Moodofthemoment (IRE)T: David Thompson Charnley's Home & Garden Centre Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 18/1

18 Jul 26 Cartmel Percy Shelley (GB)T: James Owen RF Miller & Co Female Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race)Class 3 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 6th 7/1

29 Jun 26 Stratford Juan Bermudez (GB)T: Henry Oliver Visit racingtv.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 2/1F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 29 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Lilly Pinchin's strike rate?: Lilly Pinchin has won 85 of 750 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.3% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lilly Pinchin do best at?: Fontwell by strike rate: 7 wins from 34 rides (20.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Lilly Pinchin ride most for?: Charlie Longsdon, with 353 rides since 2022 — 47% of the total. That pairing has won 48 (13.6%).
Is Lilly Pinchin in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 12 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Lilly Pinchin's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 749 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.