3:53 Redcar
This Class 4 handicap over 1m2f1y at Redcar on good ground brings together a compact field of seven where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Obito on 63 and Supplicate on 62, with both showing strong recent form and clear ability at the trip. Conditions look suitable for several runners, though the uncontested pace shape adds an extra layer of interest to how the race will unfold.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to Panelli being allowed an uncontested lead from the front. The remainder of the field is made up entirely of held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back on this stiff track, or whether the closers, including the top two in the market, can reel him in late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Obito KTB Selection63/100
Obito is a fair handicapper who arrives in solid nick, having won twice from nine starts at this trip. He has been placed twice from three starts at Redcar and boasts a good record on good ground with two wins and five places from eight runs. The yard holds a 15% strike rate at this track from a large sample of 772 runs, while Daniel Tudhope adds his own strong record here with an 18% strike rate from 497 rides. Usually held up, Obito produces his effort late and should be well positioned to challenge if the leader goes too hard. Overall he looks the one to beat from draw 2.
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2Supplicate62/100
Supplicate is a fair 3-year-old with an unbeaten record at this trip, winning all three starts over the distance. He has shown strong recent form with three straight victories and brings a win on good ground from his only attempt on the surface. The yard posts a 26% strike rate at Redcar from 81 runs, a solid mark, and Jack Mitchell is equally effective here with a 26% strike rate from 42 rides. Usually held up, he will be coming from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. His progressive profile makes him a major player.
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3Magical Merlot54/100
Magical Merlot is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win at this trip from a single attempt. He has placed on good ground from two starts and the yard has a 17% strike rate at Redcar from 140 runs. Jason Hart adds his own 14% strike rate at the track from 519 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be looking to come from off the pace and pick up the pieces if the leader falters. His consistency is a plus in a race where several hold-up performers will be queuing up behind.
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4Pol Roger49/100
Pol Roger is a fair performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins in his last six starts. He has placed here before without winning and acts on good ground where he has scored three times from 19 attempts. He has won at today's trip but his overall strike-rate is modest and the yard's record at Redcar is below average with a 9% strike rate from 1010 runs. Usually held up, he will be produced late and has shown he can go well fresh off a break. Draw 7 may not be ideal given the shape of the race.
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5Enamorus47/100
Enamorus is a modest performer who has shown little sign of progress since a promising debut third. He has been below that level on all four starts this year and was well held over this trip last time out. The yard continues in solid form at this track with a 16% strike rate, but he steps up in class here.
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6League of Justice40/100
League of Justice has shown fair form in three runs, finishing a respectable third on his most recent start. He steps up in trip today having last run over 7f, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 53 runs at Redcar.
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7Panelli36/100
Panelli is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place twice from his last six starts yet lacks any real spark at this level. First time at Redcar and first try over 1m2f both pose fresh questions while his record on good ground remains modest. The trainer's 2% strike-rate from 114 runs at the track adds another negative, though he is the sole front-runner.
KTB verdict
Obito is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of course form, trip effectiveness and yard record in a race where the pace should play into the hands of those coming from behind. He has been placed twice at Redcar already and his record on good ground is rock solid. Supplicate is the obvious danger given his unbeaten record at the trip and progressive profile, while Magical Merlot and Pol Roger cannot be dismissed on recent efforts.
KTB Selection Obito
This is the narrative read of the 3:53 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Panelli is the sole front-runner and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Obito recorded at this trip?
Obito has won twice from nine attempts at this trip.
What is Supplicate's record at this distance?
Supplicate has a perfect 3-3 record at this trip.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Redcar among the principals?
Roger Varian has a 26% strike rate at Redcar from 81 runs.
What is the course record of the selection at Redcar?
Obito has run three times here with figures of 6th, 2nd and 2nd.
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