Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 90 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.98).
Deterministic profile computed from 459 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 24 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Mar–AprAaron Anderson: 4% from 151
The read
New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=50, Fair A/E 0.00). Aaron Anderson rides 33% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4%, A/E 1.28) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 0% over 71 runners, 4.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 4: Fair A/E 0.25 across 123 runners (0.8% strike, −114.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Moon Melody (GER) — 6 wins from 83 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.2%−1.9
n=90 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −73.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.1
n=50 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −50.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.1
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.1
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4%−0.1
n=327 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −53.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With C&D winners10.4% vs 4.1% · n=48
With Charlie Maggs9.3% vs 4.1% · n=43
On Good to Soft going0% vs 4.1% · n=71
With new recruits0% vs 4.1% · n=50
In Class 40.8% vs 4.1% · n=123
In Class 56.9% vs 4.1% · n=246
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle249114.4%−122.00
Flat11254.5%+51.50
Chase8633.5%−33.50
NH Flat1200%−12.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good245135.3%+41.50
Good to Soft7100%−71.00
Soft4412.3%−34.00
Good to Firm4212.4%−33.00
Standard (AW)4037.5%−23.50
Heavy1715.9%+4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Market Rasen11665.2%−40.00
Sedgefield5112%−17.00
Catterick4824.2%−32.00
Southwell3412.9%−11.00
Newcastle (AW)29310.3%−12.50
Beverley2913.4%−8.00
Doncaster2400%−24.00
Hexham18211.1%−2.50
Uttoxeter1600%−16.00
Wetherby1600%−16.00
Huntingdon1100%−11.00
Redcar1000%−10.00
Pontefract10110%+116.00
Cartmel1000%−10.00
Southwell (AW)800%−8.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 5246176.9%−38.00
Class 412310.8%−114.00
Class 66411.6%+62.00
Class 32100%−21.00
Class 2400%−4.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite3133.3%1.35+1.50
2nd–3rd fav3425.9%0.38−22.50
4th–6th fav131118.4%1.42−32.00
7th+ in betting29151.7%0.89−63.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f14053.6%−75.50
1m5f – 2m10144%−75.50
2m5f – 3m8955.6%−6.50
Over 3m5535.5%−31.50
1m2f – 1m4f5323.8%+94.00
6f – 7f1300%−13.00
1m – 1m1f700%−7.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20227300%−73.00
20237111.4%−50.00
20249533.2%+76.00
202510565.7%−24.00
202611597.8%−45.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps384194.9%−41.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners18884.3%−87.00
5-7 runners12543.2%−82.50
11-13 runners10243.9%+71.00
14-16 runners2514%−15.00
2-4 runners15213.3%+1.50
17+ runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 65 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 55 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Andrew McNamara (6) and Olly Murphy (5); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 59 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
636826603334
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
83
Archived wins
£648k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 9 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Feast Of Fire (IRE) — A & S (Electrical Services) Handicap Chase (For The Queen's Royal Lancers Challenge Cup) Uttoxeter · Oct 2015 · Class 4
Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,478 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 960. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.
Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,945 runs since 2008 (1,112 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.2% from 455. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.
Progeny have won 13.3% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (691 horses).
Trans Island (GB)0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 9% of 4,741 runs since 2008 (295 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,131 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,131 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 17 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mike Sowersby's strike rate?
Mike Sowersby has won 19 of 459 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.1% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mike Sowersby do best at?
Market Rasen by strike rate: 6 wins from 116 runners (5.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Mike Sowersby?
Aaron Anderson, with 151 runners since 2022 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (4%).
Is Mike Sowersby in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mike Sowersby's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 458 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mike Sowersby·SR 4.1%·A/E 0.98
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