4:00 Roscommon
This 4:00 Roscommon rated race over 1m2f95y on soft ground brings together a compact field of seven, most of them 3-year-olds with scope to improve. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Minella Rockett on 63, God Of Power on 62, Back Straight on 61 and Retracement on 56, underlining how competitive the principals look on paper. With no obvious front-runner the race is expected to be tactical, and the KTB numbers point to a contest where proven ability at the trip and handling of the ground could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and carries medium confidence, suggesting a steadily-run affair in which being handy on the turn will pay dividends. Almost every runner is described as held up, so the field is likely to bunch early before the race becomes a test of timing in the straight. The key question is which horse can produce its effort at the right moment on this soft surface while stepping up or dropping in trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Minella Rockett KTB Selection63/100
Minella Rockett is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after two wins from his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance once, though he is unproven on soft ground. The trainer has a 14% strike rate here from 29 runs while the jockey is operating at 10% from 10 rides. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that run-style should suit a steadily-run race. His recent form of -45112 shows clear progression, and at OR 90 from draw 6 he is taken to land this as the KTB Selection.
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2God Of Power62/100
God Of Power is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form at this trip and a clear second on his only previous visit to Roscommon. He has been consistent through eight runs this year yet remains unproven on soft ground, which adds a question mark today. Trainer Slattery holds a 12% strike rate here from 162 runs while jockey Andrew Slattery is operating at 10% from 82 rides, with their combined record reading 132/1441 (9%) and an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up with high-confidence run-style data, he will be produced late in a race that looks tactical. Rated OR 88 from draw 7, he is the obvious danger to the selection.
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3Back Straight61/100
Back Straight is a useful performer who showed fair form when second on debut before a lesser effort last time. He drops back in trip to 1m2f today which asks a fresh question. Trainer M D O'Callaghan has a solid 14% strike rate at Roscommon while Colin Keane is operating at 17%, their partnership showing 56/253 (22%) with an A/E of 1.16. Usually held up, he will need to time his run in a steadily-run contest. With form figures of 2-17 and an OR of 90 from draw 4 he remains of interest despite the trip query and limited soft-ground experience.
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4Retracement56/100
Retracement is a fair performer who has won over today's trip but has been out of form this season with a string of modest efforts. Placed once from two starts on soft ground so the conditions should be fine. Trainer J P Murtagh and jockey Ben Coen both have solid records at Roscommon, the yard at 14% and the rider at 15%. Usually held up with high-confidence run-style data, he will be ridden for a late burst. Rated OR 85 from draw 5, he has the ability to figure if he can rediscover his best.
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5Ryefield Dasher43/100
Ryefield Dasher is a fair performer who ran well when third over 1m here last time and has placed on his only other visit to Roscommon. He steps up in trip today having shown his best form over shorter, which asks a fresh question, while he has been beaten on his only start on soft ground. The trainer has a modest 5% strike-rate at the track from 39 runs and the jockey is still seeking her first winner from 16 rides here.
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6Royal Bones42/100
Royal Bones is a modest performer who has shown some ability, finishing placed twice including at today's trip. He steps up in distance again from 1m1f and that could suit, though the small sample on soft ground leaves suitability open. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Roscommon.
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7Neo Smart34/100
Neo Smart is a modest performer with a long record of consistency at a low level but no wins in 39 starts. He has run respectably on soft ground without winning and steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at this distance. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Roscommon while the jockey's 4% record at the track is modest.
KTB verdict
Minella Rockett is the KTB Selection. A useful performer in solid recent form with two wins from his last three starts, he has already won over this trip and his held-up run-style looks ideal for the steadily-run race that is anticipated. The unproven soft-ground element is the main reservation, yet the 3-year-old brings progressive form figures of -45112 and the highest KTB Fit score. God Of Power, with his course second and consistent profile, is the most obvious danger, while Back Straight and Retracement cannot be dismissed if either finds the right timing from the rear.
KTB Selection Minella Rockett
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Roscommon racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over today's distance?
Minella Rockett has already won over this distance once.
How many horses are unproven on soft ground?
Three horses – Minella Rockett, God Of Power and Royal Bones – have no runs on soft ground.
Which runner has course form at Roscommon?
God Of Power has a second here from one visit, Ryefield Dasher has a third here from one visit, and Neo Smart has a seventh here from one visit.
Who has the strongest trainer-jockey combination record at the track?
M D O'Callaghan and Colin Keane show 56/253 (22%) with an A/E of 1.16.
Which horse is stepping up in trip having shown best form over shorter distances?
Ryefield Dasher is stepping up in trip having shown his best form over shorter.
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