What is M D O'Callaghan's strike rate?

M D O'Callaghan has won 113 of 889 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.7% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does M D O'Callaghan do best at?

Navan by strike rate: 9 wins from 31 runners (29%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for M D O'Callaghan?

Colin Keane, with 213 runners since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (21.1%).

Is M D O'Callaghan in form?

In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 6.7%. That is below the baseline of 12.7% since 2022.

What is M D O'Callaghan's Fair A/E?

1.17, from 888 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

M D O'Callaghan

889 runners in the last 5 seasons · 153 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 8.8% of 249 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 22 Oct 2026.

Last runner 3 days ago 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2022

113–889

Wins / Runs

12.7%

Strike rate

n=889

270 (30%)

Placed

1.17

Fair A/E

n=888 · 0.95 incl. margin

−251.14

£1 level stake

n=889 at SP · −28.2%

£2.37m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 180 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.17). Debutants are a strength: 16% on first career starts (112 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 889 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr Fresh horses: 13.5% 36.4% when favourite Colin Keane: 21.1% from 213 Sends off the favourite in 12% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Navan (29%, n=31), clear of the yard's 12.7% baseline. Debutants strike at 16.1% (n=112, Fair A/E 1.38), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 7.4% (n=148, Fair A/E 0.92). Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 1 from 15 runners in the last 14 days (6.7%, 6pts below the 12.7% baseline). Colin Keane rides 24% of the entries and beats the yard's average (21.1% vs 12.7%, A/E 1.39) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a 0-7-day break — 4.1% over 49 runners, 8.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 8-14-day break: Fair A/E 0.63 across 104 runners (5.8% strike, −72.09 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 17 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes at Curragh (Sep 2021, £147,500). The stable star of the record: Facethepuckout (IRE) — 6 wins from 45 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

13.5%+0.8

n=170 · A/E 1.34 · £1 −60.32

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.1%−3.6

n=22 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −15.00

Debutants · first career start

16.1%+3.4

n=112 · A/E 1.38 · £1 +11.98

First-time headgear · true-first definition

12.9%+0.2

n=70 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −36.74

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12.8%+0.1

n=39 · A/E 1.84 · £1 −12.00

When favourite

36.4%

n=107 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +1.10

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.7%−4.0

n=127 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −55.42

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.4%−5.3

n=148 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −76.02

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Navan 29% vs 12.7% · n=31

With Colin Keane 21.1% vs 12.7% · n=213

With Dylan Browne McMonagle 24% vs 12.7% · n=50

On last-time-out winners 21.8% vs 12.7% · n=101

Off a 0-7-day break 4.1% vs 12.7% · n=49

Off a 8-14-day break 5.8% vs 12.7% · n=104

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 874 111 12.7% −241.39

Hurdle 14 2 14.3% −8.75

NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 294 35 11.9% −96.89

Soft 229 28 12.2% −65.94

Standard (AW) 162 28 17.3% −37.47

Good to Soft 91 9 9.9% −3.25

Heavy 63 5 7.9% −43.25

Good to Firm 50 8 16% −4.34

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Curragh 169 14 8.3% −56.39

Dundalk (AW) 152 25 16.4% −34.38

Naas 132 17 12.9% −63.61

Gowran Park 62 7 11.3% −21.44

Leopardstown 57 4 7% −34.09

Cork 42 6 14.3% +3.38

Navan 31 9 29% +15.42

Punchestown 28 7 25% +13.30

Galway 28 0 0% −28.00

Fairyhouse 24 4 16.7% +1.11

Roscommon 22 2 9.1% +19.00

Killarney 19 2 10.5% −6.00

Ascot 14 0 0% −14.00

Tipperary 14 2 14.3% −8.12

Down Royal 13 2 15.4% −6.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 148 11 7.4% −76.02

Class 2 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 4 4 3 75% +2.74

Class 5 3 3 100% +2.44

Class 3 2 2 100% +9.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 132 48 36.4% 1.31 +15.93

2nd–3rd fav 209 41 19.6% 1.26 −4.57

4th–6th fav 248 19 7.7% 1.05 −55.50

7th+ in betting 300 5 1.7% 0.51 −207.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Rockbury Lad (GB) 51 3 12 15 Sep 26

Darkdeserthighway (IRE) 41 4 11 16 Oct 26

Facethepuckout (IRE)from John Ryan 31 5 13 2 Nov 25

I Am Superman (IRE) 24 2 4 2 Nov 25

Navassa Island (IRE) 21 2 9 4 Apr 26

Genoah (IRE) 19 4 6 28 Sep 26

Red Evolution (IRE) 17 5 9 26 Sep 26

Twilight Jet (IRE)then Jim & Suzi Best 15 2 3 12 Oct 24

Noli Timere (IRE) 14 2 4 11 Oct 26

Fastnet Crown (IRE) 14 2 4 26 Aug 23

Northern Ruler (GB)from K R Burke 12 0 0 11 Oct 26

Its All Peachy (IRE) 12 1 5 12 Oct 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 153 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 51 had their first archived run for this yard.

23 have since run for another yard, most often for Andrew Balding (2) and Jamie Osborne (2); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

1 from 15 6.7% · −6.0pts vs baseline

Last 14 days6.7%

5-season base12.7%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1321151491013131681722

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderColin Keane

24% of all rides
21.1% SR · A/E 1.39

RiderRWSR£1

Colin Keane 213 45 21.1% +22.60

Leigh Roche 206 14 6.8% −114.12

Jamie Powell 145 13 9% −43.05

Dylan Browne McMonagle 50 12 24% +4.31

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

232

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.87m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 26 wins

Super King (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes Curragh · Sep 2021

£147,500

Black Forza (USA) — Markel Richmond Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Aug 2024 · Group 2

£99,243

Celeron (GB) — GAIN Railway Stakes (Group 2) Curragh (IRE) · Jul 2026 · Group 2

£78,000

Notable horses

Facethepuckout (IRE) Darkdeserthighway (IRE) I Am Superman (IRE) Red Evolution (IRE) Fastidious (GB) Fastnet Crown (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mehmas (IRE) 14.9% · 11–74

Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,114 runs since 2008 (747 horses).

Showcasing (GB) 5.3% · 3–57

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,591 runs since 2008 (997 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 108.

Hallowed Crown (AUS) 10.9% · 6–55

Progeny have won 8.9% of 619 runs since 2008 (48 horses).

Footstepsinthesand (GB) 8.8% · 3–34

Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,783 runs since 2008 (936 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.

Excelebration (IRE) 16.1% · 5–31

Progeny have won 9% of 3,605 runs since 2008 (244 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 20.7% · 6–29

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,541 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,155 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,155 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 May 2012 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Lady Plimsoll (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Racing Again November 7th Handicap12f · Soft · 14 ran 6th 7/1

18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Shorten The Winter (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Leopardstown Golf, Padel And Range Maiden9f · Good · 15 ran 10th 50/1

16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Darkdeserthighway (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Book Now Handicap10.5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 18/1

16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Two Brigade (IRE)J: Reese Holohan James Crowe 1 Year Memorial Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 20/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Flagstone Lady (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Isuzu Ireland Handicap14f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 8th 10/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Maxims Of Equity (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden6f · Soft · 12 ran 8th 150/1

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Adel (GER)J: Jamie Powell On-Course Vets Handicap12f · Soft · 16 ran 2nd 20/1

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Back Straight (GB)J: Colin Keane Roscommon Rated Race10.5f · Soft · 5 ran 3rd 9/4J

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Breaking Dawn (GB)J: Colin Keane Guinness Handicap7.5f · Soft · 14 ran 14th 28/1

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Hassaniya (IRE)J: Colin Keane Roscommon Racecourse (C & G) Maiden7.5f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 14/1

11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Northern Ruler (GB)J: Gabriella Hill TRM Calphormin - Strong Foundation, Strong Future Apprentice Handicap10.5f · Soft · 12 ran 8th 25/1

11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Noli Timere (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Irish Stallion Farms EBF Garnet Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Soft · 16 ran 7th 100/1

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Bamako Beach (IRE)J: Jamie Powell RFL Steels Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 6f · Soft · 9 ran 1st 3/1J

09 Oct 26 Toulouse (FR) Saga Gaga (IRE)J: Guillaume Guedj-Gay Derby Du Languedoc - Fonds Europeen De L'elevageClass 1 · 12f · Very Soft · 7 ran 2nd 5/4J

09 Oct 26 Toulouse (FR) Kalixa (IRE)J: Guillaume Guedj-Gay Prix Panacee - Fonds Europeen De L'elevageClass 1 · 12f · Very Soft · 7 ran 7th 14/1

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Shemiyka (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Spin Southwest Maiden11f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 6/5F

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Believe Believe (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Killarney Grand Apprentice Handicap11f · Soft · 12 ran 5th 4/1

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Back Straight (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 11f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 14/1

04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Muscogee Nation (CAN)J: Seamie Heffernan Bermingham Cameras Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden7f · Soft · 12 ran 5th 25/1

02 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Ready To Mingle (IRE)J: Reese Holohan BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Maiden7f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 100/30

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is M D O'Callaghan's strike rate?: M D O'Callaghan has won 113 of 889 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.7% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does M D O'Callaghan do best at?: Navan by strike rate: 9 wins from 31 runners (29%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for M D O'Callaghan?: Colin Keane, with 213 runners since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (21.1%).
Is M D O'Callaghan in form?: In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 6.7%. That is below the baseline of 12.7% since 2022.
What is M D O'Callaghan's Fair A/E?: 1.17, from 888 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.