3:30 Roscommon
This 13-runner Boyle Maiden over 1m2f95y at Roscommon on soft ground features a mix of lightly raced maidens, some with placed form and others making their first or second starts on the Flat. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Teoest on 52, with four others between 45 and 49, suggesting a race where experience and proven ability at the level could prove decisive. Trainer and jockey combinations are generally modest at the track, with few standout positive reads, while the soft conditions add an unknown for several runners who have never encountered it.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Navy Guitar is the only front-runner in the field with a high-confidence run-style. He is likely to be allowed an uncontested lead from stall 1, setting a steady gallop that could prove difficult for the many held-up types to bridge in the closing stages on this soft surface. The key question is whether any of the closers, most of whom are rated around the mid-40s on KTB Fit, possess the requisite stamina and finishing kick to reel in the leader late, or whether the uncontested pace advantage will be decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Teoest KTB Selection52/100
Teoest arrives as a fair performer who has shown consistent form across his four runs this year, most notably when finishing runner-up on his most recent start. He was fourth here over a longer trip on his only previous visit to Roscommon and now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried. The 3-year-old is held up in his races, usually producing his effort late, and remains unproven on soft ground. Trainer J S Bolger holds a 12% strike rate at the track from 566 runs while jockey Colin Keane is operating at 17% from 301 rides. With an official rating of 84 he brings the highest ballast in the field and is the KTB selection.
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2Ossie's Lodge49/100
Ossie's Lodge returns from a long absence with just one placed effort from two runs on soft ground, where he has looked competitive without winning. The 7-year-old is dropping back from 1m4f to an untried 1m2f, which asks a fresh question of a horse that still has plenty to prove overall. He has no course form on record at Roscommon. The yard has a solid 12% strike-rate at the track from 203 runs, though jockey Robbie Colgan is operating at only 4% from 226 rides here. His placed soft-ground form gives him a small edge on conditions over several rivals.
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3Heriot's Hope48/100
Heriot's Hope makes her debut for a yard that operates at a 10% strike rate here from 137 runs. The jockey W J Lee is similarly established at the track with an 11% strike rate from 332 rides. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence available, the assessment rests entirely on her sales and pedigree background. By Cityscape, she has a 9% overall win rate associated with that sire from 3212 runners. She represents one of the unknowns in a maiden where experience could count for plenty.
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4Helen's Blaze48/100
Helen's Blaze has shown minor promise in two starts so far, finishing third on debut before a lesser effort last time. The 4-year-old is held up in her races, though with limited evidence, and now drops back from 1m4½f to 1m2f95y, which poses a fresh question while the soft ground remains an unknown on such limited evidence. Trainer H Rogers operates at a 7% strike rate from 232 runs here and jockey Siobhan Rutledge is 6% from 47 rides. She remains modestly rated on what she has shown to date.
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5Saliba45/100
Saliba is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form at this level, including a second last time out, though the recent runs show a tendency to find one or two too good. He steps up from 1m to 1m2f95y, which poses a fresh question, and the soft ground remains unknown with only one run on it and five runs on the board overall. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he carries an official rating of 79. Trainer Mrs J Harrington has a 13% strike rate from 489 runs here while Shane Foley posts 10% from 346 rides.
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6Isthatrightkatie44/100
Isthatrightkatie has shown little in six starts with an 8-0 recent form line that suggests she is struggling to make an impact. The step up to 1m2f today asks a fresh question of her stamina while the wide draw in stall 12 is no help on soft ground. Trainer Miss Katy Brown has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Roscommon while jockey Wesley Joyce operates at a solid 8% from 52 rides here.
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7Big Cypress44/100
Big Cypress is a modest performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing second on his most recent start over 1m1.5f. He steps up in trip today having already tried this distance once without success, which asks a fresh question. The yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Roscommon while the jockey is operating at 14%. He remains unproven on soft ground.
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8Royal Ballet Blue43/100
Royal Ballet Blue is a lightly raced 3-year-old with two modest efforts at this trip so far. First-time headgear is now fitted and the small sample means both going and course are unknown quantities. Jockey Luke McAteer has a 5% strike rate from 74 rides at Roscommon.
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9Ard Ri Na Heireann42/100
Ard Ri Na Heireann has shown little in two starts so far and remains hard to fancy. The trip has not sparked improvement and the wide draw is another negative. Trainer has only one run at the track so far while the jockey's modest 6 percent strike-rate from 35 rides offers limited encouragement.
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10Nustty41/100
Nustty is a debutant with only a single placed effort to show for three previous bumper runs. The yard has a solid 12% strike-rate at Roscommon from a big sample while first-time headgear is applied. Pedigree and sales background offer limited clues on this soft-ground debut.
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11Boptothetop41/100
Boptothetop is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a modest 6% strike-rate at Roscommon from 18 runs while Cleary's 3% record from 332 rides at the track is also limited. Data confidence is low so any assessment is tentative and rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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12Betsy Trotwood40/100
Betsy Trotwood has only one career run behind her and steps up markedly in trip from 6f to 1m2f, which asks a fresh question of her. The small sample means little else can be read into her ability or preferences at this stage. Trainer and jockey both have only three visits to Roscommon so their local records are too limited to draw any conclusions.
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13Navy Guitar34/100
Navy Guitar is a modest performer with a recent string of ordinary efforts. He drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in one previous try at this distance and has shown no spark on his only run on soft ground. Both trainer and jockey have too few runs at Roscommon to form any reliable view. He is the sole front-runner and looks set to enjoy an uncontested lead.
KTB verdict
Teoest is the KTB selection. He brings the most consistent recent form of the principals, highlighted by a runner-up effort last time and an official rating of 84 that sets the standard here, while his held-up style should see him delivered late against a lone leader who may not have the pace to kick on. The drop in trip from his previous Roscommon run is the main question mark, along with the soft ground on which he is unproven. His main dangers are Saliba, who has solid placed form at the level and a similar late-run style, and Ossie's Lodge, who has shown some competitiveness on soft ground in the past despite the long absence.
KTB Selection Teoest
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Roscommon racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to set the pace?
Navy Guitar is the only front-runner with high-confidence run-style and is expected to enjoy an uncontested lead.
How many runners are unproven on soft ground?
Multiple runners including Teoest, Helen's Blaze, Big Cypress, Royal Ballet Blue, Ard Ri Na Heireann and Betsy Trotwood have no runs on soft.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Roscommon in this field?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 19% strike rate at Roscommon from 293 runs.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from 1m4f or further?
Ossie's Lodge is dropping back from 1m4f and Helen's Blaze from 1m4½f.
Who wears first-time headgear?
Royal Ballet Blue and Nustty both race in first-time headgear.
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