4:29 Downpatrick
The 4:29 at Downpatrick is a seven-runner Cosy Group Beginners Steeplechase over 2m3f100y on good ground. A field of largely unexposed or lightly raced chasers assembles for what looks a steadily-run, tactical contest according to the KTB numbers, with the top four all rated within nine points of each other on Fit scores ranging from 62 down to 53. Every runner makes their first appearance at the track, adding an extra layer of uncertainty to an already open-looking beginners event.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough without over-racing in a race that may not go hard enough for pronounced closers. Spinola Bay is the only prominent runner and could end up dictating a sensible gallop from the front in a race where positioning will be important.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kevin's Pride KTB Selection62/100
Kevin's Pride is a smart performer who has won twice on good ground and is proven at this trip. He drops back from a longer distance today and tries headgear for the first time while making a first appearance at Downpatrick. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer John C McConnell holds a solid 12% strike rate at the track from 311 runs while jockey Eoghan Finegan is operating at 4% from 24 rides. He has two wins from five starts on good ground with three placed efforts.
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2Killeemore Lad59/100
Killeemore Lad is a smart performer who arrives in solid form with three seconds from his last four completed starts. He steps up in trip today having won the only previous time he tried this distance though he has been mostly raced over shorter. The eight-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Andrew Slattery remains winless from 32 runs at Downpatrick while jockey Philip Donovan holds a respectable 9% strike rate from 22 rides. He has one win from nine starts on good ground with four placed efforts.
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3Jabbar56/100
Jabbar has shown consistent placed form in recent starts and arrives here off the back of a solid second last time. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him while this is also his first run at Downpatrick. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Gerard O'Leary holds a respectable 10% strike rate at the track from 30 runs though jockey Thomas O'Connor has had only four rides here so far. He has one win from 11 starts on good ground with six placed efforts.
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4Robbies Rock53/100
Robbies Rock has shown mixed form over hurdles with a win and two placed efforts on good ground from nine starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him while making his debut at Downpatrick. The five-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Gavin Cromwell holds a solid 15% strike rate here from 262 runs and jockey Kevin Sexton is operating at 11% from 123 rides. He has two wins from nine starts on good ground with six placed efforts.
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5Spinola Bay48/100
Spinola Bay arrives in reasonable form having won twice last year and shown placed form on good ground. The step up in trip is an unknown and the horse has never been to Downpatrick before. Gordon Elliott has an 18% strike rate here from 938 runs while James Smith is operating at 15% from 40 rides. He is usually raced handily, on or close to the lead.
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6Barton Sky44/100
Barton Sky has shown little in three starts since returning from a long absence, finishing well beaten on both outings this year. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of an 8-year-old who remains lightly raced. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Downpatrick. He has two runs on good ground with no win or place.
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7Herja44/100
Herja is a smart performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts including seconds at this trip. She steps up in distance today while making a first appearance at Downpatrick where the trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 28 runs and the jockey is yet to score from 29 rides. She goes well on good ground with a win and plenty of places from 12 starts. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
KTB verdict
Kevin's Pride is the KTB Selection. A smart performer with two wins on good ground and proven at this trip, he drops back in distance, tries first-time headgear and makes his debut at Downpatrick for a trainer with a solid record at the track. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his usual held-up run-style if he can produce his effort at the right time. Main dangers are Killeemore Lad, who arrives in solid form with three seconds from his last four completed starts, and Jabbar, who brings consistent placed form and a recent solid second.
KTB Selection Kevin's Pride
This is the narrative read of the 4:29 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Downpatrick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Kevin's Pride tries headgear for the first time.
How many of these runners have previous course form at Downpatrick?
None of the seven runners have course form on record.
Which runner is the only one likely to race prominently?
Spinola Bay is the only prominent runner and usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Downpatrick in this field?
Gordon Elliott has an 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from 938 runs.
Which horse has won the only time it previously tried this trip?
Killeemore Lad has won the only previous time he tried this distance.
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