3:55 Downpatrick
The 3:55 at Downpatrick is an AJC Group Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f180y on good ground with an eleven-runner field. The KTB Fit scores highlight a competitive but compact top end, led by Cozone on 70, with Kashchei (65), Seven Towers (64), Shinnhill (63) and Bruant (62) all rated smart performers closely grouped behind. Overall the numbers point to a race where course form, trip suitability and the ability to handle a strong pace will separate the principals from the rest.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is likely with at least two habitual front-runners present, chiefly Bruant and Down Around, and the pace shape carries high confidence that it could collapse late. That sets up ideally for the cluster of hold-up horses – Cozone, Kashchei, Seven Towers, Mickey Cohen, Tell Nobody Nothin, Penzance and Love Like This – who can produce their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent racers can dictate matters or if the race will fall apart late to favour those coming from further back.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Cozone KTB Selection70/100
Cozone is a smart performer with a solid record here, having won two of his three starts at Downpatrick. He arrives in decent nick after a placed effort last time and steps up in trip having already won over this distance. The yard and jockey both have respectable strike rates at the track though his record on good ground is only fair. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is perfectly placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses. Trainer Matthew J Smith operates at a 16% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 1.3 from 49 runs, while James Smith posts a 15% strike rate with an A/E of 1.15 from 40 rides. The nine-year-old’s recent form reads /16-31.
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2Kashchei65/100
Kashchei is a smart performer who showed his best when winning at this track last time before pulling up on softer ground. He has placed form over today’s longer trip and acts on good ground, though the step up from 2m3½f asks a fresh question. Trainer Cian Collins has a solid record here with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 1.25 from 43 runs, while the jockey is still seeking a first course winner from five rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that is forecast. The six-year-old’s recent form reads 753-1P and he has a 1-6 record on good ground with two additional places.
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3Seven Towers64/100
Seven Towers is a smart performer who arrives in good heart after a clear-cut win last time out. The step up in trip is an unknown but he has already shown he handles this sort of distance range and the good ground suits. First-time headgear is another new factor while both trainer and jockey have solid 15% strike rates here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the five-year-old is another who can benefit if the pace collapses. Gavin Cromwell’s record at Downpatrick reads 15% with an A/E of 0.92 from 262 runs and Keith Donoghue matches that 15% strike rate with an identical A/E from 217 rides. Recent form is 3-3391.
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4Shinnhill63/100
Shinnhill is a smart performer who has already won over this course and acts on good ground. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Neil McKnight holds a solid record here with a 7% strike rate and A/E of 0.96 from 67 runs, though the jockey’s modest 4% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.47 from 24 rides is a negative. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he could find himself vulnerable if the strong pace takes its toll late. The nine-year-old’s recent form reads 1/7-P2 and he has won once from three starts at Downpatrick with a 1-4 record on good ground that includes three places.
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5Bruant62/100
Bruant is a smart performer who has already won twice over this course. Recent form includes a win and a second, though the placed effort on good ground came from six attempts without a victory. He steps up in trip for the first time today while sporting headgear for the first time. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is one of the horses likely to set the strong gallop that could unravel late. Trainer A J Martin has a 13% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 0.84 from 264 runs and Kevin Sexton posts an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.91 from 123 rides. The five-year-old’s recent form reads P0-102.
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6Tolka Row59/100
Tolka Row is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just two visits. He showed improved form when landing a race here in the spring and his recent efforts include a solid second at Downpatrick. The first-time headgear is the main unknown while the trainer’s modest record at the course is a slight negative. Usually held up, the six-year-old’s recent form reads 872P18.
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7Mickey Cohen58/100
Mickey Cohen is a useful performer who has won once from two runs at Downpatrick and arrives in solid form after a respectable fourth last time. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while his record on good ground shows he is competitive without having won on it. Trainer Noel Meade has a strong 23% strike rate here from 404 runs and jockey Donagh Meyler posts a solid 16% from 79 rides at the track. Usually held up, the five-year-old’s recent form is 4312-4.
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8Tell Nobody Nothin56/100
Tell Nobody Nothin is a useful performer who knows this track, having won here from four runs. He drops back from a stiff 3m1½f last time to a trip where he has already placed without winning, and his record on good ground is perfectly adequate. Trainer Noel Meade has a solid 23% strike rate at Downpatrick from a big sample, though the claiming jockey has only four rides here which is too small to judge. Usually held up, the six-year-old’s recent form reads 3461-P.
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9Down Around52/100
Down Around is a useful performer who arrives in decent form after a recent win and has solid placed efforts at this trip in the past. He drops back from 3m2f while showing a clear preference for good ground where he is 2-14. Trainer Gordon Elliott holds an 18% strike-rate at Downpatrick from a huge sample while the jockey is operating at 12%. Tending to make the running, the nine-year-old’s recent form is 236-71.
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10Penzance48/100
Penzance is a smart performer on the balance of his ratings and recent form that includes four seconds this year. He steps up in trip today having looked as though the shorter distance was stretching him last time, while his record on good ground shows him competitive without winning. The yard has a modest 6% strike-rate here from a large sample and the claiming jockey is still seeking a first winner from 29 rides at the track. Usually held up, the six-year-old’s recent form reads 422204.
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11Love Like This43/100
Love Like This is a fair performer who has run respectably in both visits to Downpatrick without troubling the judge. He steps up in trip today having placed without winning at this distance in the past, and he remains competitive on good ground having placed six times from 21 starts. The trainer’s modest 4% strike rate at the track is a negative while the jockey’s 18% record from a small sample offers some hope. Usually held up, the eight-year-old’s recent form is 143040.
KTB verdict
Cozone stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer with two wins from three starts at Downpatrick, he arrives in decent nick, has already won over today’s distance and is ideally suited by the strong pace that is forecast to collapse late given his usual hold-up run-style. The yard and jockey both have respectable records at the track and the nine-year-old’s placed effort last time keeps him in the right form window. His main dangers are Kashchei, who showed his best with a win here last time and has placed form at the trip, and Seven Towers, who arrives on the back of a clear-cut success and now tries first-time headgear. Shinnhill and Bruant add further depth from their course wins, while the likes of Mickey Cohen and Tolka Row cannot be entirely ruled out if the race falls apart as expected.
KTB Selection Cozone
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Downpatrick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record among the principals?
Cozone, with two wins from three starts at Downpatrick.
How many front-runners are highlighted in the pace shape?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, making a strong pace likely.
Which runner is trying first-time headgear?
Both Seven Towers and Bruant, along with Tolka Row in the field.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Downpatrick in the field?
Noel Meade with a 23% strike rate from 404 runs.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Shinnhill, Bruant and Seven Towers are all stepping up in trip for the first time.
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