5:04 Downpatrick
A 16-runner Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Steeplechase over 2m3f100y at Downpatrick on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 56 and 59, suggesting a competitive field where class and course knowledge will be at a premium. Strong pace is anticipated, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to how the race will unfold and which hold-up performers might capitalise if the leaders come back to them.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the field the pace shape is expected to be strong and potentially testing, with a high likelihood of the leaders folding late on. Gorthill, Annarubyrose and My Cullen are all inclined to race prominently or make the running, which should ensure an honest gallop from the outset. This setup poses the key question of whether the pace will collapse in the closing stages, thereby playing into the hands of the numerous hold-up types who can produce their effort late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Full Noise KTB Selection59/100
Full Noise is a useful performer who has won once from two starts at this track. He drops back in trip today having last run over further, with a previous win at this distance. The trainer has a solid record here while the jockey is less prolific at the track, and the horse remains unproven on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally placed to benefit if the anticipated strong pace collapses. His course win and proven ability at the trip make him a major player in what looks a tight handicap.
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2Wing Back59/100
Wing Back is a useful performer who has already won over this track. He has been out of form on his last two starts and now steps up in trip for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at this distance. The trainer continues in solid form here while the jockey's modest strike rate at the track is well known. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the strong pace takes its toll on those up front. His course success remains a positive despite the recent dip in form.
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3Gorthill57/100
Gorthill is a useful performer who has won once from six runs at Downpatrick. He showed his best recent effort when second over a longer trip last time but now drops back to 2m3f where he has failed to trouble the judge in his only previous try at the distance. Placed twice from six runs on good ground without winning so he remains competitive on this surface. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be prominent in a race where the pace is forecast to be strong. His course record and recent placed form keep him in the mix.
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4Driveonwill57/100
Driveonwill is a useful performer who has won over this trip and knows his way around Downpatrick having scored here from three starts. Recent form has been patchy with two unseats and a poor effort last time, while he is zero from four on good ground. The trainer's modest record at the track is offset by the jockey's solid 16% strike rate here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well suited if the strong pace does collapse. His course and distance success cannot be ignored despite the recent inconsistencies.
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5Run For The Border56/100
Run For The Border is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick with three placed efforts from his last four starts. He drops back from 3m2f to a trip he has already won at, which looks a positive, while the jockey’s solid 18% strike-rate at Downpatrick adds some encouragement. The trainer’s modest 4% record here is a clear negative though and this is the horse’s first run at the track. Usually held up with high confidence and producing his effort late, he is another who could thrive if the leaders pay for a strong gallop. His recent placed form makes him a solid contender.
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6King's Son54/100
King's Son is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He has course experience here having finished third on his only visit to Downpatrick and has also placed once from two runs at today's trip. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate from 27 runs at the track while the jockey is similar on 9% from 22 rides.
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7Our Zebo52/100
Our Zebo is a fair performer with a solid record at this track, including two wins from five runs. He has shown consistent form on good ground with two wins and six places from ten starts, though his recent efforts include a below-par seventh after some stronger placed form. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate here from 202 runs while the jockey is on 8% from 39 rides, and the drop back from 3m2f to an untried 2m3f poses a fresh question.
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8Kalsman51/100
Kalsman is a useful performer who has won once in nine runs at Downpatrick. Recent form of 1-9033 shows two placed efforts in his last three starts yet he steps up in trip today having failed to win in four previous tries at this distance. Trainer and jockey both operate at a low strike rate here.
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9Annarubyrose51/100
Annarubyrose is a fair mare who has shown consistent placed form at this track, including a second, but has yet to win in nine starts. She acts on good ground and has been competitive without success at this level. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of her stamina.
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10My Cullen47/100
My Cullen is a useful performer who has shown enough placed form to remain competitive at this level. Dropping back from 2m6f to a trip where he has already placed once looks a reasonable move though he still lacks a win at either distance. Trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Downpatrick is a negative while the jockey's record here is a bit better.
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11Deadheat47/100
This fair 13-year-old has shown little spark in three runs this year and was pulled up on his previous attempt over this sort of trip. He drops back from 3m2f having placed once in three starts at today's distance, though he has never won over it. The yard holds a 7% strike rate from 90 runs at Downpatrick while the jockey is 4% from 179 rides here, and the horse has no previous experience of the track or this ground.
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12The Cobblers Wife45/100
The Cobblers Wife is a fair performer who showed a return to form when winning at this trip on good ground last time. She drops back in trip from 2m4½f having failed to score in one previous attempt at today's distance. Trainer has a 13% strike rate from 32 runs here while jockey operates at 8% from 204 rides.
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13My Policy44/100
My Policy is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form around this track, finishing second, third, fourth and fifth from four runs here. The drop back in trip looks a sensible move after a recent run over further, though he remains winless at both this distance and on good ground. Patrick Rooney has failed to land a winner from 28 attempts at Downpatrick while Alix Balfe has an 8% strike rate from her 12 rides at the track.
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14Not So Serious44/100
Not So Serious is a fair performer who showed a bit more when winning a point last time after a string of poor runs under Rules. He drops back in trip having been well held over further on his latest start, with only one previous try at this distance. Trainer has a modest 4% strike rate here from 28 runs while the jockey's 10% from 148 rides is more respectable.
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15Nobody42/100
Nobody is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He steps up in trip today having shown little on his one previous attempt at this distance while his record on good ground is modest. Jockey has a solid 21% strike rate here from 19 rides but the trainer has no previous runners at the track.
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16Baltinglass Hill38/100
Baltinglass Hill is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark on his return at this track last month. He has run respectably over this trip in the past but steps back up in distance today having been well held over shorter on his latest start. The yard and jockey both have modest records here.
KTB verdict
Full Noise stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer with a prior course win and proven success at today's trip, he is well suited by the strong pace likely to unfold given his hold-up run style. The trainer's solid record at Downpatrick further strengthens his claims, even if the jockey is less prolific here and the horse remains unproven on good ground. His main dangers are likely to come from Wing Back, who has course-winning form, and the prominent Gorthill, who could set the fractions. Driveonwill and Run For The Border, both with recent placed efforts or course knowledge, complete a competitive top five.
KTB Selection Full Noise
This is the narrative read of the 5:04 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Downpatrick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set a strong pace?
Gorthill, Annarubyrose and My Cullen are all front-runners or tend to race on the pace, aligning with the forecast of a strong pace.
How many horses in the field have previously won at Downpatrick?
Full Noise, Wing Back, Gorthill, Driveonwill, Our Zebo and Kalsman have all won at the track.
Which runners are stepping up or down in trip for this race?
Full Noise drops back in trip, Wing Back steps up, Gorthill drops back, Run For The Border drops back, Our Zebo drops back, Kalsman steps up, Annarubyrose steps up, My Cullen drops back, Deadheat drops back, The Cobblers Wife drops back, My Policy drops back, Not So Serious drops back, Nobody steps up and Baltinglass Hill steps back up.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Downpatrick among those with available figures?
Daniel King has an 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from 17 rides, while Josh Williamson has a 21% strike rate from 19 rides.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at the track in this field?
Anthony Mullins has a 13% strike rate at Downpatrick from 32 runs.
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