4:35 Clonmel
This 4:35 maiden at Clonmel over 1m1f168y on good to yielding ground brings together a field of seven modest performers, most of whom arrive with limited experience or patchy form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 40 and 50, underlining the ordinary nature of the contest and the number of unknowns around trip, ground and course. With little depth to the race, it looks an opportunity for a horse to improve its position if it can handle the step up in distance or the prevailing conditions.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting Blue Nasturtium will be allowed an uncontested lead from the front. The remaining six runners are all held up types who produce their effort late, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of whether any of them can close the gap on a horse given an easy time up front. The key question is whether the leader can maintain the advantage on this step back in trip or if one of the patient runners can time their challenge to reel it in on the good to yielding surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kakori KTB Selection50/100
Kakori is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late, with a placed effort and two respectable runs behind him. He steps up in trip today having last been seen over 7f and that is an unknown at this stage. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has a 14% strike rate at Clonmel from 140 runs while Declan McDonogh operates at 10% from 134 rides here. He is placed once from three starts on good to yielding ground without winning. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time.
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2Therewillbeglory44/100
Therewillbeglory is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his better days but has been below form on his last two starts. He steps up in trip today having never won over this distance and makes his first visit to Clonmel where the trainer's record is modest at 5% from 202 runs. The jockey has yet to score from nine rides at the track. He has been placed once from one run on good to yielding ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find improvement to challenge an uncontested leader.
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3Ready To Mingle44/100
Ready To Mingle is a modest performer who showed some ability when third on handicap debut last time. He drops back in trip today having last run over 1m4f which poses a fresh question. The M D O'Callaghan stable has a solid 20% strike rate from five runs at Clonmel. Going suitability remains unknown as he has had no runs on good to yielding ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the lightly-raced profile adds to the unknowns in a race with a clear leader.
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4Blue Nasturtium44/100
Blue Nasturtium has shown only modest form in two starts to date, finishing fourth and fifth without suggesting anything better is imminent. The drop back from 2m to an untested 1m1f is an open question at this stage. Both trainer and jockey have established but below-average records at Clonmel, with the yard at 12% and the rider at 9%. He has had no runs on good to yielding ground. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is set to enjoy the lone leader role in a race with few prominent runners.
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5Desert Swing43/100
Desert Swing showed little on debut when finishing ninth over a mile. Stepping up in trip for the first time today poses a fresh question for this lightly raced 4-year-old while first-time headgear is also applied. The trainer has only had two runners at Clonmel so far while jockey Shane Foley holds a solid 13% strike rate from 76 rides here. He has had no runs on good to yielding ground.
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6Place Your Regrets40/100
Place Your Regrets is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 21 runs at Clonmel while the jockey is also 0% from 9 rides here. Data confidence is low and any judgement rests on pedigree and sales background.
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7Queen Of Chenab40/100
Queen Of Chenab is lightly raced with just three runs in the last year so any assessment has to be tentative. She has tried this trip once without success and the small sample means her effectiveness on good to yielding ground remains unknown after one run without a win or place. The trainer holds a modest 10% strike rate at Clonmel from a large number of runs while the jockey has had too few rides here to draw any conclusions. Usually held up and producing her effort late on limited evidence.
KTB verdict
Kakori is the KTB Selection. A modest performer, he has at least shown some consistency of late with a placed effort and two respectable runs, and the Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard and Declan McDonogh combination bring the best course stats in the race. Usually held up, he will need the race to fall right given the clear leader, but he looks best placed to capitalise if the front-runner falters. The main dangers are Blue Nasturtium, who is likely to get an easy lead, and the pair of Therewillbeglory and Ready To Mingle, both of whom have shown ability on their better days and will be closing late.
KTB Selection Kakori
This is the narrative read of the 4:35 Clonmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Clonmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Clonmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Blue Nasturtium, who tends to make the running or race on the pace in a race with a lone leader pace shape.
How many of the runners are held up types?
Six of the seven runners are held up and produce their effort late, leaving Blue Nasturtium as the sole prominent runner.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Clonmel in this field?
M D O'Callaghan with a 20% strike rate from five runs at the track.
Has the selection ever run at Clonmel before?
Kakori has no course form on record.
Which runner is making its racecourse debut?
Place Your Regrets, a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
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