4:41 Listowel
The 4:41 at Listowel is a nine-runner handicap over a mile on good ground. The KTB numbers point to a competitive field where the top four are separated by modest margins in their Fit Scores, ranging from 62 down to 44, while the remainder sit tightly clustered between 43 and 38. With the pace shape indicating a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested advantage, the ability to close effectively from off the pace or capitalise on any softening of the front-runner will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace map is clear: one horse is expected to bowl along in front with little company, creating a shape that can prove difficult for those racing in rear to bridge the gap. Most of the field, including the top four principals, are noted as held-up types who produce their effort late, which sets up a test of whether they can reel in the clear leader on this good surface. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove decisive or if one of the patient runners can deliver a strong finishing kick in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Victory Tip KTB Selection62/100
Victory Tip is a useful performer who showed smart form when winning over this trip on debut before a solid second next time out. He has looked below that level in two starts since and now returns from a break. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample of 272 runs. With a KTB Fit of 62 he tops the ratings in this field. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead likely to be set. His placed effort on good ground shows he handles the conditions.
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2Eddie G56/100
Eddie G is a fair performer who has run well at this track before but could only manage sixth on his sole visit. He drops back to a trip where he has placed twice without winning, and his recent form has been patchy with a win and two placed efforts mixed in with lesser runs. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate here from a big sample while the 7 lb claimer is an interesting booking with a 22% strike rate at Listowel. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be looking to come from off the pace against the lone leader. His record of one win from five on good ground adds to his case.
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3Goal Exceeded48/100
Goal Exceeded is a fair sort who has shown consistent form this year with four wins from 27 runs. He has course experience here but could only finish sixth on his sole visit, while the step back up to a mile is a positive as he has won over the trip before. Trainer Adrian McGuinness holds an 11% strike rate from 134 runs at Listowel, though the jockey has a 7% strike rate from 29 rides at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be another closing late. With two wins from nine on good ground he is proven on the surface.
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4Son Of Beauty44/100
Son Of Beauty is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year, including a win at this trip from just two attempts. Dropping back from 1m1½f looks a sensible move and he has the ability to be competitive again. The trainer has only had two runners at Listowel so far so that remains an unknown, with both the yard and jockey currently 0% at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, he will need to produce his effort at the right time against the expected lone leader. His placed effort on good ground from a single start suggests he can act on the going.
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5Glyndwr43/100
Glyndwr is a fair performer who has shown consistent ability without winning lately, finishing placed on three of 11 starts on good ground. He steps up to a trip he has won over twice from eight attempts, though his most recent run came over 7f. The trainer has a modest 3% strike rate from 31 runs at Listowel.
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6Galileo Noir43/100
Galileo Noir is a fair performer who showed his best form when winning a maiden over further at Down Royal in July before a solid third in a handicap at Galway last time. He drops back to 1m today having failed to land a blow on his only previous run at the trip. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 328 runs at Listowel while the jockey is 0-4 at the track.
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7Morehampton42/100
Morehampton is a fair performer who has shown his best form when placed over this trip on his last two starts. He handles good ground and has a win and two places from six runs on it. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Listowel from 66 runs.
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8Exquisite Acclaim41/100
Exquisite Acclaim is a modest performer who has been busy this year and showed some spark when third at Cork last month. He steps up to a trip he has won at before though his recent efforts have mostly been over shorter and he was well held when tried here over 7f. The trainer has a solid 11% strike rate at Listowel.
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9Highbury See See38/100
Highbury See See is a modest performer who has been placed on both starts at Listowel and is proven at this trip with one win from 12 attempts. Recent form shows the odd competitive run but nothing better than mid-division finishes in most of them. The trainer's 4% strike rate from 167 runs at the track is a negative.
KTB verdict
Victory Tip is the KTB Selection. He showed smart form when winning over this trip on debut and followed up with a solid second, and although he has been below that level since he now returns from a break with the highest KTB Fit Score in the field. The trainer's 15% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample is another positive for a horse who can be competitive if he returns close to his best. The main dangers are Eddie G, who has run well at the track before and benefits from an interesting claimer booking, and Goal Exceeded, whose consistency and return to a winning trip make him a solid contender in a race where the lone leader could prove hard to catch.
KTB Selection Victory Tip
This is the narrative read of the 4:41 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Exquisite Acclaim is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are typically held up?
All four principals – Victory Tip, Eddie G, Goal Exceeded and Son Of Beauty – are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Listowel among those represented?
Adrian McGuinness has an 11% strike rate at Listowel from 134 runs.
Has any horse in the field been placed at Listowel before?
Highbury See See has been placed on both starts at Listowel, including a third.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at the track among those with meaningful data?
Reese Holohan has a 22% strike rate at Listowel from nine rides with an A/E of 3.63.
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