5:16 Listowel
The 5:16 at Listowel is a 1m6f55y handicap for three-year-olds on good ground, featuring a field of eight runners where experience is limited and stamina questions abound. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with four principals separated by only five points, underlining how open the race looks on paper. With no obvious leader in a steadily-run, tactical affair, the ability to race handily while seeing out the new trip will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. Count Bezukhov is the one most likely to race prominently from his low draw, while the remainder of the field are largely held-up types who will be looking to pick up the pieces late. The key question is which of these lightly raced three-year-olds will handle the marked step up in distance best as the race unfolds from a steady gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Mergus Serrator58/100
Mergus Serrator is a fair performer who has shown consistent form without progressing across five starts, most recently finishing midfield in a couple of handicaps. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of stamina. Gavin Cromwell holds an 11% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample of 205 runs, while G F Carroll brings a 13% strike rate and A/E of 1.21 from 188 rides at the track. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late, a run-style that could prove vulnerable in a steadily-run race. He has had just one run on good ground without placing and holds no course form.
-
2Count Bezukhov KTB Selection58/100
Count Bezukhov is a fair performer who has shown steady progress in three runs this year with form figures of 313, winning on good ground last time out. He now steps up in trip which looks an open question at this stage, though his prominent run-style from draw two should see him race handily in a race that lacks an obvious leader. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 17% strike rate at Listowel from 276 runs, while J M Sheridan has a 4% strike rate and A/E of 0.37 from 46 rides at the track. The colt is 1-2 on good ground with both starts producing a placing and arrives with the KTB Selection tag.
-
3Huff'n'puff54/100
Huff'n'puff is a fair performer who has shown useful placed form mixed with a couple of lesser efforts in his five runs. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of stamina from his draw in stall one. Henry de Bromhead brings a 15% strike rate and A/E of 1.00 from 272 runs at Listowel, though W J Lee is on a 9% strike rate and A/E of 0.78 from 279 rides here. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late, a run-style that fits the shape but will need the pace to quicken at the right time. He has no experience on good ground and holds no course form.
-
4Bay of Stars53/100
Bay of Stars is a fair three-year-old who showed useful form when winning twice in the spring before a lesser effort last time out. He has already tried this trip once without success and the small number of runs leaves his effectiveness on good ground somewhat unproven despite a placing from his sole start on the surface. D K Weld has a strong 23% strike rate and A/E of 1.07 from a huge 522 runs at Listowel, sending him out with Colin Keane. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is set to be a tactical affair and has no course form on record.
-
5Vantage Code52/100
Vantage Code is a fair performer who has won once over today's trip from two attempts and showed useful placed form on good ground. Recent form has been mixed with a win and a third sandwiched between lesser efforts, though the yard's modest 9% strike rate at Listowel from 35 runs offers no strong pointer. Usually held up, he makes his first run at the track from an average draw in stall four.
-
6Possum46/100
Possum is a fair performer who has shown steady improvement in three starts, finishing a clear third last time. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question, while the first-time headgear is another unknown. Mrs J Harrington has a solid 12% strike rate at Listowel from 420 runs and Shane Foley takes the ride; the colt is unproven on good ground and has no course form.
-
7Sunrush44/100
Sunrush is a fair three-year-old who showed real improvement when winning over this trip on good ground last time. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Listowel from 167 runs is a negative. Usually held up, he remains a credible contender on the strength of that latest effort despite no course form.
-
8Lord Aus37/100
Lord Aus is a modest performer who has shown mixed form across seven starts with a best effort when winning at Down Royal in June. He ran respectably when third at Galway last time but now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question. J P Murtagh has a 6% strike rate from 66 runs at Listowel and the colt is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Count Bezukhov looks to have the best blend of proven progress, a suitable prominent run-style and yard strength at the venue. His recent win on good ground gives him solid footing in a race where the pace is likely to be steady and the trip an unknown for most. The main dangers are Mergus Serrator, who brings consistent form and Cromwell's local record, and the two strong-trainer runners Huff'n'puff and Bay of Stars, both of whom possess ability if the step up in distance proves within their compass.
KTB Selection Count Bezukhov
This is the narrative read of the 5:16 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over this trip?
Vantage Code has won once over today's trip from two attempts and Sunrush won over this trip last time.
Who is the only runner with a prominent run-style?
Count Bezukhov is the only prominent runner, usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Listowel in this field?
D K Weld has a 23% strike rate at Listowel from 522 runs.
Which horse is making its first appearance at Listowel?
All eight runners have no course form on record.
Who is wearing first-time headgear?
Possum is wearing first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies