4:56 Uttoxeter
This Class 5 Quinnbet Handicap Steeple Chase over 3m10y at Uttoxeter on good ground brings together a field of seven where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 55 and 39. The top four principals are separated by just seven points on the ratings, suggesting a competitive heat in which class-dropping, trip concerns and the first-time application of headgear will all play a part. Overall the KTB numbers point to a race in which proven course performers and those suited by a strong pace are likely to hold the key.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared the pace shape is strongly positive and a genuine strong gallop is anticipated. Another Mystery and A Dublin Job both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure the race is run at a proper clip and set up for those held up off the pace. The key question is whether the leaders will fold late as the strong pace collapses, handing the advantage to the hold-up performers who can deliver their effort from off the speed in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Better Off Alone KTB Selection55/100
Better Off Alone arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit score of 55. A useful performer, he showed some ability on this track when finishing third here on his only visit. He has failed to complete in half his starts over fences, which remains a concern, yet he drops in class today and first-time headgear is now applied in the hope of helping him to settle better. The combination of the Martin Keighley yard, which has a 12% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 290 runs, and claiming jockey Freddie Keighley, who posts a 15% strike rate at the venue from 13 rides, adds to the positives. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally suited by the anticipated strong pace that could collapse late. He steps up markedly in trip for the first time, which asks a fresh question, yet his placed effort at the track suggests he can be competitive from an OR of 98.
-
2Bravethewaves50/100
Bravethewaves is rated a fair handicapper and carries a KTB Fit score of 50. He has placed once in five runs at Uttoxeter without winning, his best effort a third, and has shown mixed form this year. At the age of nine he steps up markedly in trip, which asks a fresh question, though the yard’s solid 14% strike rate at the track from 160 runs provides encouragement. He has recorded two wins from 13 starts on good ground with a further two placed efforts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that is likely to be set. From an OR of 85 he remains capable of a bold show if the trip proves within range.
-
3Jo Arengeot Bey Aa49/100
Jo Arengeot Bey Aa is a fair horse who won over this trip earlier in his career and has already shown he handles Uttoxeter with a win from four runs here. Recent form has been patchy, including a pulled-up effort, and he steps back up in distance today after his last run over shorter. The Donald McCain stable posts a 13% strike rate at Uttoxeter from a large sample of 728 runs, while Gavin Sheehan is a positive booking with a 19% strike rate at the track from 329 rides. Usually held up, he will be suited by the strong pace on offer. With a KTB Fit score of 49 and an OR of 81 he enters the equation as a clear contender if he can rediscover his best.
-
4Another Mystery48/100
Another Mystery is a fair performer who has placed at Uttoxeter without winning and possesses a solid record on good ground that includes a win at today’s trip. Recent form is mixed, with a win sandwiched between some poor efforts, and he was well held last time out. The trainer’s modest 9% strike rate at the track is backed by an A/E close to 1.00, though the jockey’s record at Uttoxeter is less inspiring. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is perfectly placed to set the strong gallop that the race shape suggests. Carrying a KTB Fit score of 48 from an OR of 82, he could take some catching if able to dictate matters throughout.
-
5A Dublin Job44/100
A Dublin Job is a fair handicapper who has been largely consistent without winning for a while. He has run five times at Uttoxeter without placing and the yard’s modest 3% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement, though he drops in class and has been placed at this distance in the past.
-
6Izzy's Grey41/100
Izzy's Grey is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent placed form on good ground and at this trip. He has course experience here with a second to his name from four runs but has failed to win in 19 starts this year and was pulled up on his latest visit to Uttoxeter; the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 17 runs at the track.
-
7Fane Court39/100
Fane Court is a fair performer on balance and has shown consistent form of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts. He has already tried this trip twice without success and now steps back up in distance for the first time since last year while wearing first-time headgear; the yard’s modest record at Uttoxeter adds a note of caution.
KTB verdict
Better Off Alone is the KTB selection. He showed some ability when third on his only visit to Uttoxeter, drops in class and now sports first-time headgear, while his hold-up style is perfectly suited to the strong pace that should unfold. The trip is a fresh question and his completion record is not flawless, yet the combination of yard and jockey stats at the venue and the likely shape of the race make him the one to beat. The main dangers are Bravethewaves, who has placed at the track and is another who will relish the strong gallop, Jo Arengeot Bey Aa, who has won over the trip and at this course, and the front-running Another Mystery, who could prove hard to peg back if allowed an easy lead.
KTB Selection Better Off Alone
This is the narrative read of the 4:56 Uttoxeter. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Uttoxeter racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Uttoxeter results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip for the first time?
Better Off Alone and Bravethewaves are both stepping up markedly in trip today.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are declared, making a strong pace likely with high confidence.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Better Off Alone and Fane Court are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Uttoxeter among the principals?
Donald McCain has a 13% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 728 runs, Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have 14% from 160 runs, while Martin Keighley has 12% from 290 runs.
Which horse has previously won over today’s 3m10y trip?
Jo Arengeot Bey Aa won over this trip earlier in his career and Another Mystery has a win at today’s trip on his record.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies