5:13 Ffos Las
This Class 4 handicap steeplechase over the extended three and a quarter miles at Ffos Las brings together a field of seven where the KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top four. The race is run on good to soft ground and features several course winners, with the overall numbers suggesting that proven stamina at the track and trip will be important assets. Puddlesinthepark heads the KTB Fit scores on 74 while the remainder of the principals sit between 66 and 55, painting a picture of a competitive staying chase in which course form and an uncontested lead could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, indicating that one horse is likely to secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in over this demanding trip. Yes Day is the only confirmed front-runner in the line-up and should be allowed to dictate terms from the outset, while the other six runners are all held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late. The key question is whether the leader can maintain his advantage throughout or whether one of the patient runners, particularly those with strong course records, can close him down effectively in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Puddlesinthepark KTB Selection74/100
Puddlesinthepark is a smart performer who has won three times at this track from ten starts and also has a win at today's trip. He steps up in distance today having last run over 3m1½f but the extra yardage looks within range on his record. The eight-year-old is rated OR 107, drops in class, and is a usual held-up runner who produces his effort late. Trainer Mrs C. Williams has a 13% strike rate at Ffos Las with an A/E of 1.47 from 16 runs while jockey Osian Radford, claiming 10lb, has a 20% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.71 from 10 rides. He has recorded two wins from 11 starts on good to soft ground and his recent form reads 9U65-6.
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2Jaccours66/100
Jaccours is a smart performer who won over shorter here from three starts at the track and has placed twice on good to soft ground. He steps up sharply in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Rated OR 112, the seven-year-old is a held-up runner who usually produces his effort late. Trainer Robbie Llewellyn has an 8% strike rate at Ffos Las with an A/E of 0.97 from 24 runs while jockey Charlie Price operates at a 6% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.61 from 67 rides. He has been placed on two of three starts on good to soft and his recent form reads /41P6-.
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3Gingerbred58/100
Gingerbred is a useful performer who has won over this course and stays well. He drops back from 3m6½f to a trip at which he has already been placed, though his record on good to soft is modest with just one win from twelve starts. Rated OR 90, the eight-year-old is a held-up runner who usually produces his effort late. Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 17% strike rate at Ffos Las with an A/E of 1.42 from 23 runs while jockey Brendan Powell has a 10% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.74 from 128 rides. He has won here once from two starts and his recent form reads 2P346-.
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4Yes Day55/100
Yes Day is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after a win and two placed efforts in his last three starts. He handles good to soft ground well enough and has been placed without winning at this sort of trip, though the extra distance today asks a fresh question. Rated OR 112, the eight-year-old is a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace. Trainer Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill has a 13% strike rate at Ffos Las with an A/E of 0.88 from 31 runs while jockey Jonjo O'Neill Jr has a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.55 from 98 rides. He has no course form on record and his recent form reads -23241.
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5Karuma Grey52/100
Karuma Grey is a smart performer who has won over this course. Recent form has been patchy with four pulled-ups from the last six starts and the step up to 3m3f today asks a fresh question. He remains unproven on good to soft ground while trainer and jockey both operate at a modest strike-rate here.
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6Yes And Yes45/100
Yes And Yes is a useful performer who has won at today's trip and showed his best form when taking a similar staying handicap here at the end of last season. He has been in and out since, pulling up on his most recent start, and has never placed in four runs on good to soft ground. The yard has only a tiny sample at the track while the jockey operates at a modest 8% strike rate here.
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7Est Illic37/100
Est Illic is a modest performer who has placed once from four runs at this track but has failed to complete in two of them. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m4f, which asks a fresh question of him at the age of 12. The trainer records a 5% strike rate from 58 runs here while the jockey has only four rides at the course so far.
KTB verdict
Puddlesinthepark stands out as the KTB Selection. He has won three times at this track from ten starts and also has a win at today's trip, with the extra yardage looking within range on his record, while both trainer and jockey have above-average strike rates here. His ability to produce a late effort from a held-up position should suit the anticipated pace shape of an uncontested lead. The main dangers are Jaccours, who brings strong course form although the sharp step up in trip poses a question, and Gingerbred, who stays well and drops to a suitable distance despite a modest record on good to soft. Yes Day cannot be entirely dismissed given his recent solid form and likely role on the front end.
KTB Selection Puddlesinthepark
This is the narrative read of the 5:13 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ffos Las results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ffos Las racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Yes Day is the only confirmed front-runner and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many course winners are in the field?
Four horses have won at Ffos Las: Puddlesinthepark (three times), Jaccours, Gingerbred and Karuma Grey.
Which runner has the strongest trainer strike rate at the track?
Gingerbred's trainer Joe Tizzard has a 17% strike rate at Ffos Las with an A/E of 1.42 from 23 runs.
Who has the best jockey record at Ffos Las among the principals?
Osian Radford has a 20% strike rate at Ffos Las with an A/E of 1.71 from 10 rides when riding for Mrs C. Williams.
Which horse is dropping in class for this race?
Puddlesinthepark is dropping in class while both Yes And Yes and Est Illic are stepping up in class.
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