Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 20 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 6% of them. First rides on a horse are a strength: 8% on the first captured pairing (51 rides).
Deterministic profile computed from 100 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFirst rides: 7.8%Claiming: 6.3%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
7.8%+1.8
n=51 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −27.75
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
12.5%+6.5
n=8 · A/E 0.64 · £1 +3.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
3.2%−2.8
n=31 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −25.50
When favourite
37.5%
n=8 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −0.08
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
6.3%+0.3
n=96 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −67.83
Big fields · 14+ runners
7.1%+1.1
n=14 · A/E 1.53 · £1 −8.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Harriet Dickin0% vs 6% · n=32
On Good going8.9% vs 6% · n=45
Off a 15-30-day break8.8% vs 6% · n=34
In Class 57.1% vs 6% · n=56 · A/E 0.77
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle6346.3%−39.75
Chase2926.9%−24.08
NH Flat700%−7.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good4548.9%−26.08
Good to Soft2328.7%−13.75
Soft1800%−18.00
Good to Firm700%−7.00
Heavy700%−7.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newton Abbot12216.7%−7.83
Taunton10110%−6.25
Exeter9111.1%−3.50
Leicester700%−7.00
Stratford700%−7.00
Wincanton700%−7.00
Chepstow700%−7.00
Ffos Las500%−5.00
Hereford400%−4.00
Fontwell4125%+7.00
Cartmel400%−4.00
Warwick3133.3%+0.75
Worcester300%−3.00
Cheltenham300%−3.00
Ludlow200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 55647.1%−32.75
Class 42300%−23.00
Class 31119.1%−7.25
Class 2500%−5.00
Class 65120%−3.83
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite9444.4%1.31+4.42
2nd–3rd fav1815.6%0.36−14.25
4th–6th fav3113.2%0.48−20.00
7th+ in betting4200%0.00−42.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f3837.9%−18.50
2m5f – 3m3026.7%−22.50
1m5f – 2m2100%−21.00
Over 3m10110%−8.83
6f – 7f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20225120%−3.83
20237114.3%−3.25
202419315.8%−6.75
20252200%−22.00
20264712.1%−36.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6546.2%−41.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3226.3%−18.00
11-13 runners2414.2%−20.25
5-7 runners2400%−24.00
14-16 runners1119.1%−5.50
2-4 runners6233.3%−1.08
17+ runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 51 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000102500330700
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,005 runs since 2021 (295 horses).
Fruits Of Love (USA)14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,777 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.8% from 944. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 182. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 4% from 150.
Progeny have won 15.7% of 389 runs since 2022 (68 horses).
Saint Des Saints (FR)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 15% of 5,367 runs since 2008 (645 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 101 · newest first
The latest 50 of 101 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 August 2021 to 8 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Megan Bevan's strike rate?
Megan Bevan has won 6 of 100 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Megan Bevan in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Megan Bevan's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 99 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Megan Bevan·SR 6%·A/E 0.69
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