4:38 Ffos Las
The 4:38 at Ffos Las is a competitive Class 2 GBB handicap steeplechase over 2m3f83y on good to soft ground, featuring eight runners with strong ratings and established race records. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Down Memory Lane just heading the list on 68, followed closely by Saint Segal on 67, while Il Est Francais and Matterhorn also feature in the principals. Several horses are dropping in class and the pace shape points to a lone leader scenario that could prove difficult for those racing off the pace.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone leader pace shape, one horse is expected to secure an uncontested lead that may prove hard for closers to bridge in the latter stages. Crebilly is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to take up that role, setting a tempo that suits his own preferences. Most of the principals, including the selection Down Memory Lane, Saint Segal, Il Est Francais and Matterhorn, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the clear leader can be reeled in or if the uncontested advantage will prove decisive on this track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Down Memory Lane KTB Selection68/100
Down Memory Lane is a high-class performer on his day with strong ratings and race history to back him up. He drops back in trip today having been well held over further last time, though his only previous try at this distance brought no joy and he has just the one unplaced run on good to soft ground. The trainer maintains a solid 33% strike rate at Ffos Las while the jockey's 12% record here is more modest. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to time his run to perfection if the leader is allowed an easy time upfront. The 8-year-old carries an official rating of 148 and arrives with recent form figures of 01P5P-. This is his first visit to the course.
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2Saint Segal67/100
Saint Segal is a high-class performer with a solid career record that includes two wins from four starts at today's trip. He has won four times on good to soft ground from ten attempts and holds strong course connections here at Ffos Las, having finished fifth on his only previous run at the track. Dropping in class looks a sensible move after his last run over two and a half miles, and the 8-year-old arrives with recent form figures of 122PP-. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy lead. The trainer has a 16% strike rate at Ffos Las from 37 runs and the jockey an 11% strike rate from 62 rides. He carries an official rating of 154.
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3Il Est Francais62/100
Il Est Francais is a high-class performer with strong ratings and race history behind him. He drops back to a trip he has won at twice from four starts, though his record on good to soft is modest with no win or place from two runs. The trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Ffos Las, with the yard on 16% from 106 runs and the jockey on 19% from 81 rides. Usually held up, he will need to produce a strong late effort if the leader is given an uncontested advantage. The 8-year-old carries top weight with an official rating of 155 and recent form figures of /3PPP-. This will be his first run at the course and he is dropping in class.
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4Matterhorn59/100
Matterhorn is a high-class performer with a strong ratings profile and solid race history. He drops back to a trip he has won at before while having won on good to soft ground from four attempts. The trainer holds a 16% strike rate at the track from 106 runs but the jockey is still seeking a first winner from nine rides here and this is the horse's first visit to Ffos Las. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be another looking to strike from off the pace in a race shaped by a clear leader. The 8-year-old carries an official rating of 146 with recent form figures of /1P2P- and is dropping in class.
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5Torneo56/100
Torneo is a high-class performer with a solid recent record that includes a win last time out. He steps up in trip today having only tried 2m3f once before without success while his four placed efforts from nine runs on good to soft show he handles the ground without winning on it. The trainer and jockey both hold strong records at Ffos Las on their first run here with this horse. Usually held up, he carries an official rating of 129 with recent form figures of 42461- and is stepping up in class.
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6Riskintheground54/100
Riskintheground is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of 01-213 and strong ratings backing. He drops back from 3m to 2m3f today having failed to score in his only previous run at the trip while three wins from 13 starts on good to soft show he handles the ground. The trainer has a 16% strike rate from 106 runs at Ffos Las but the jockey is still seeking his first winner from 11 rides here and this is the horse's first run at the track. Usually held up, he carries an official rating of 147.
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7Crebilly54/100
Crebilly is a high-class performer with a strong recent record of 5-1421 and solid ratings to match. He drops back to a trip he has won at before while the good-to-soft ground has produced a win and two places from eight runs. The trainer and jockey both hold respectable strike rates at Ffos Las on their first run here with this horse. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is the one likely to take the lone leader role in this contest. The 9-year-old carries an official rating of 132.
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8Southoftheborder46/100
Southoftheborder is a high-class performer who won over this course on his only visit and arrives in good heart after a recent success. He drops back in trip today having failed to win in three previous runs at this distance while his record on good to soft is only placed once in four starts without a victory. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from five runs here while the jockey's 10% strike rate from 128 rides is solid but below expectations. Usually held up, he carries an official rating of 124 and is stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
Down Memory Lane is the KTB Selection and shapes as the one to beat on the strength of his high-class ability when on song. He has the ratings and race history to land this despite the drop back in trip and limited experience on good to soft ground, with the trainer's excellent record at the venue adding further confidence. Saint Segal is the obvious danger given his strong record at the trip and on the ground along with positive course connections. Il Est Francais and Matterhorn, both dropping in class, are next in the pecking order and could feature if the leader is brought back to the field, while Crebilly's likely uncontested lead gives him a clear chance to run well.
KTB Selection Down Memory Lane
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:17 UTC, 14 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Down Memory Lane | 18/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Saint Segal | 9/2 | BetTom |
| Il Est Francais | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Matterhorn | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Riskintheground | 8/1 | Midnite |
| Crebilly | 7/2 | Star Sports |
| Southoftheborder | 7/1 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 4:38 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ffos Las results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ffos Las racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Crebilly is the sole front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Saint Segal recorded on good to soft ground?
Saint Segal has four wins from ten starts on good to soft ground.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Ffos Las with Down Memory Lane's stable?
The trainer has a 33% strike rate at Ffos Las with an A/E of 1.73 from nine runs.
Which horses are dropping in class for this race?
Saint Segal, Il Est Francais and Matterhorn are all dropping in class.
How many previous visits has Southoftheborder made to Ffos Las?
Southoftheborder has made one previous visit to Ffos Las, which resulted in a win.
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