Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 80 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). New recruits from other yards win at 16% first time out (32 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 1,514 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 27 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Jul–SepFresh horses: 8.2%16.2% when favouriteRonan Thomas: 7.8% from 231New recruits: 15.6%Headgear returns: 12.7%Group/Graded: 10.2%
The read
The record is strongest at Auteuil (FR) (16.4%, n=55), clear of the yard's 7.8% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 15.6% (n=32, Fair A/E 1.27), but debutants struggle at 3.9% (n=77, Fair A/E 0.51). Ronan Thomas rides 15% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.8%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well over 2m1f – 2m4f (19.4%, n=67). 9 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix Romati at Enghien (FR) (May 2016, £46,324). The stable star of the record: Majura (FR) — 8 wins from 49 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Sep.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.2%+0.4
n=282 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −77.10
New recruits · first run for the yard
15.6%+7.8
n=32 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −1.80
Debutants · first career start
3.9%−3.9
n=77 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −63.80
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4%−3.8
n=50 · A/E 0.43 · £1 −43.80
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12.7%+4.9
n=55 · A/E 1.99 · £1 +62.10
When favourite
16.2%
n=105 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −33.90
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.9%−1.9
n=253 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −84.80
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
10.2%+2.4
n=59 · A/E 1.10 · £1 +8.70
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With horses switching code22.5% vs 7.8% · n=40
Over 2m1f – 2m4f19.4% vs 7.8% · n=67
At Auteuil (FR)16.4% vs 7.8% · n=55
With Cesar Passerat0% vs 7.8% · n=46
With new recruits15.6% vs 7.8% · n=32
With Mlle Alexandra Bouvier0% vs 7.8% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat1,4321047.3%−363.00
Hurdle66913.6%−9.70
Chase16531.3%+36.50
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)522387.3%−151.30
Good320206.3%−32.10
Soft318299.1%−40.50
Good to Soft188126.4%−63.20
Heavy1651810.9%−49.10
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)353329.1%−31.40
Chantilly (FR)335175.1%−157.40
Saint-Cloud (FR)300258.3%−38.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)233135.6%−89.70
Longchamp (FR)184147.6%−70.50
Auteuil (FR)55916.4%+1.90
Enghien (FR)27518.5%+23.90
Compiegne800%−6.00
Clairefontaine7228.6%+40.00
Fontainebleau400%−3.00
Argentan (FR)100%−1.00
Dieppe (FR)100%−1.00
Amiens (FR)100%−1.00
Le Croise-Laroche11100%—
Vichy100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 159610.2%+8.70
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite1071816.8%0.87−30.10
2nd–3rd fav1912513.1%1.03−28.90
4th–6th fav347318.9%1.10+1.30
7th+ in betting797253.1%0.95−278.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f578447.6%−155.40
1m2f – 1m4f443296.5%−51.80
6f – 7f291186.2%−163.20
1m5f – 2m9499.6%−13.90
2m1f – 2m4f671319.4%+36.10
Under 6f27311.1%−2.70
2m5f – 3m11218.2%+17.70
Over 3m300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008451226.7%−2.00
200925520%−1.00
201015374.6%−71.70
201113396.8%−50.60
2012153138.5%−10.90
2013155138.4%+35.00
2014150117.3%−54.50
2015138107.2%−25.20
201615595.8%−34.80
201711554.3%−69.50
2018121119.1%−28.00
201910676.6%−14.40
20206369.5%−6.60
2021100%−1.00
2022100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps883728.2%−158.20
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners574437.5%−125.50
17+ runners355215.9%−58.60
11-13 runners275145.1%−115.40
8-10 runners182158.2%−49.00
5-7 runners68811.8%−6.70
2-4 runners601728.3%+19.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 120 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from C Laffon-Parias (2) and N Clement (2); 46 had their first archived run for this yard.
15 have since run for another yard, most often for P Baudry (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
14027107141296106
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Singapore Sling (FR) — Prix Romati (Chase) (5yo+) (Turf) Enghien (FR) · May 2016 · Grade 3
£46,324
Grande Haya (FR) — Prix Carmarthen (Hurdle) Auteuil (FR) · Oct 2008 · Grade 3
£43,015
Grande Haya (FR) — Prix Juigne (Hurdle) Auteuil (FR) · Mar 2005 · Grade 3
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,225 runs since 2008 (253 horses).
Marchand De Sable (USA)14.8% · 13–88
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,093 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.2% from 167. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.8% from 148.
Starborough (GB)4.7% · 3–64
Progeny have won 9.3% of 475 runs since 2008 (57 horses). Strongest on Good going: 15.2% from 145.
Green Tune (USA)0% · 0–58
Progeny have won 10% of 1,943 runs since 2008 (227 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.6% from 265. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 457. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 13.1% from 244.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,647 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,647 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 March 2005 to 13 October 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is A Bonin's strike rate?
A Bonin has won 118 of 1,514 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does A Bonin do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 9 wins from 55 runners (16.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for A Bonin?
Ronan Thomas, with 231 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (7.8%).
What is A Bonin's Fair A/E?
0.99, from 1,435 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
A Bonin·SR 7.8%·A/E 0.99
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