Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.84).
Deterministic profile computed from 239 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance12.9% when favouriteSends off the favourite in 13% of races
The read
It is weakest at Chantilly (FR) (3.8% over 52 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.76 across 128 runners (6.3% strike, −64.40 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Super Handicap de la Rentree at Longchamp (FR) (Sep 2025, £39,669). The stable star of the record: Astral Merit (FR) — 5 wins from 31 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.5%−2.6
n=67 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −39.30
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.1
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
5.6%−1.5
n=18 · A/E 0.84 · £1 +23.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.1
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.1
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
When favourite
12.9%
n=31 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −15.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.5%+3.4
n=19 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −8.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With C&D winners2.5% vs 7.1% · n=40
At Chantilly (FR)3.8% vs 7.1% · n=52
At Longchamp (FR)10% vs 7.1% · n=30
On Soft going9.5% vs 7.1% · n=42
Off a 61-180-day break5.1% vs 7.1% · n=39
On Standard (AW) going6.3% vs 7.1% · n=128 · A/E 0.76
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat238177.1%−89.90
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)12886.3%−64.40
Soft4249.5%−26.20
Good to Soft3738.1%+12.90
Good1715.9%−3.70
Heavy1417.1%−9.50
Good to Firm100%—
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)10276.9%−45.30
Chantilly (FR)5223.8%−31.80
Longchamp (FR)30310%−16.30
Saint-Cloud (FR)19210.5%−10.00
Clairefontaine (FR)8112.5%+33.00
Saint-Malo (FR)6233.3%+0.50
Dieppe (FR)400%−4.00
Craon (FR)300%−3.00
Vichy (FR)300%−3.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)200%−2.00
Compiegne (FR)200%−2.00
Angers (FR)200%−2.00
Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR)200%−2.00
Nantes (FR)100%−1.00
Senonnes-Pouance (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 419210.5%−12.50
Class 3900%−9.00
Class 2700%−7.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite31412.9%0.63−15.20
2nd–3rd fav39717.9%1.27−3.80
4th–6th fav5159.8%1.25+4.10
7th+ in betting11710.9%0.23−76.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f10276.9%−24.30
6f – 7f6546.2%−33.00
1m2f – 1m4f5347.5%−33.70
Under 6f9111.1%+4.30
1m5f – 2m700%−6.00
2m1f – 2m4f3133.3%+1.80
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224748.5%−22.20
20233512.9%−20.70
202450510%−18.20
20254037.5%−19.20
20266746%−10.60
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps15595.8%−92.90
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners12853.9%−91.70
11-13 runners5846.9%−42.90
8-10 runners33618.2%+9.40
17+ runners1516.7%−1.70
5-7 runners5120%+36.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 34 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 34 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from P Cottier (2); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.
9 have since run for another yard, most often for Mme Stephanie Jaffrelot-Bedon (3); 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
770600214140610
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Olympic Goal (FR) — Super Handicap de la Rentree (3yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Sep 2025
£39,669
Kais (FR) — Prix du Manoir (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Nov 2014
£23,500
Astral Merit (FR) — Prix Lyphard () (3yo+) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Nov 2017 · Listed
Progeny have won 9.6% of 866 runs since 2008 (127 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 155. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.6% from 127.
Progeny have won 15.4% of 1,972 runs since 2008 (326 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 11% from 363. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 21% from 243. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7% from 201.
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,848 runs since 2008 (416 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 189. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.5% from 142.
Progeny have won 11.2% of 1,322 runs since 2008 (152 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 14.4% from 167. Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 159. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 14.6% from 205. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.7% from 130.
Progeny have won 9.5% of 1,671 runs since 2008 (240 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 641 · newest first
The latest 50 of 641 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 April 2005 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is F Monnier's strike rate?
F Monnier has won 17 of 239 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does F Monnier do best at?
Longchamp (FR) by strike rate: 3 wins from 30 runners (10%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is F Monnier in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is F Monnier's Fair A/E?
0.84, from 238 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
F Monnier·SR 7.1%·A/E 0.84
KTB
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