Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−11.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−11.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
9.1%−2.3
n=11 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −8.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%−1.4
n=10 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −7.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
40%
n=5 · A/E 1.53 · £1 +1.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking9.4% vs 11.4% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft15213.3%−6.50
Good15213.3%−3.50
Soft1000%−10.00
Standard (AW)3133.3%+1.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Mont-De-Marsan (FR)9222.2%+4.00
Toulouse (FR)800%−8.00
Dax (FR)7114.3%−4.50
Deauville (FR)5120%−1.00
La Teste De Buch (FR)300%−3.00
Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR)300%−3.00
Chantilly (FR)200%−2.00
Pau (FR)100%−1.00
Tarbes (FR)100%−1.00
Fontainebleau (FR)11100%+3.50
Saint-Cloud (FR)100%−1.00
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Clairefontaine (FR)100%−1.00
Le Mans (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 21100%−11.00
Class 1400%−4.00
Class 34125%+0.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5240%1.53+1.50
2nd–3rd fav9222.2%1.72−0.50
4th–6th fav1715.9%0.79−8.00
7th+ in betting1300%0.00−13.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f20420%+0.00
6f – 7f1417.1%−10.00
1m – 1m1f800%−8.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2023100%−1.00
202643511.6%−19.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners20315%−4.50
11-13 runners8225%+0.50
14-16 runners800%−8.00
5-7 runners800%−8.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 16 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 16 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 11 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
···0·0171111130·
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.3% of 3,839 runs since 2018 (339 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 448. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.7% from 135. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 446.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 5,255 runs since 2011 (580 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 256.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 44 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Antonio Jose Baptista Ribeiro De Abreu's 44 archived runners, from 14 June 2023 to 11 November 2026, newest first — 5 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Antonio Jose Baptista Ribeiro De Abreu's strike rate?
Antonio Jose Baptista Ribeiro De Abreu has won 5 of 44 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.4% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Antonio Jose Baptista Ribeiro De Abreu in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Antonio Jose Baptista Ribeiro De Abreu's Fair A/E?
1.20, from 44 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Antonio Jose Baptista Ribeiro De Abreu·SR 11.4%·A/E 1.20
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy