Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.2%−0.5
n=24 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −17.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.7
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
2.8%−1.9
n=36 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −23.20
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.9%−1.8
n=34 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −21.20
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +0.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−4.7
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Chase races9.4% vs 4.7% · n=32
Over 2m1f – 2m4f1.9% vs 4.7% · n=53
In Hurdle races2.4% vs 4.7% · n=41
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle4112.4%−30.20
Chase3239.4%+4.50
Flat1200%−11.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Heavy3725.4%−21.70
Soft3725.4%−6.00
Good to Soft400%−3.00
Good400%−3.00
Standard (AW)300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)2900%−29.00
Compiegne (FR)2129.5%−7.50
Le Touquet (FR)300%—
Deauville (FR)300%−3.00
Dieppe (FR)300%−3.00
Chateaubriant (FR)300%−3.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)200%−2.00
Nancy (FR)2150%+6.80
Vittel (FR)200%−2.00
Craon (FR)2150%+17.00
Angers (FR)200%−2.00
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Argentan (FR)100%—
Dax (FR)100%−1.00
Corlay (FR)100%—
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1600%−6.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 4200%−2.00
Class 5200%−2.00
Class 211100%+18.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite3133.3%1.46+0.50
2nd–3rd fav600%0.00−6.00
4th–6th fav2827.1%0.93−9.20
7th+ in betting4112.4%0.93−22.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f5311.9%−41.20
2m5f – 3m19315.8%+15.50
1m2f – 1m4f500%−5.00
1m5f – 2m500%−4.00
Over 3m300%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2021100%—
20221500%−11.00
202319210.5%−5.50
20241417.1%−3.20
20251400%−14.00
20262214.5%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2300%−23.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners26311.5%+15.80
11-13 runners2200%−22.00
5-7 runners1815.6%−12.50
14-16 runners1200%−11.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 46 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 46 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from P Chemin & C Herpin (5) and D Bressou (2); 36 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00001400011600
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.6% of 2,392 runs since 2013 (303 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.5% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.9% from 598. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 2.9% from 138.
Progeny have won 13.6% of 794 runs since 2020 (141 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 18.5% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 85 · newest first
The latest 50 of 85 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 March 2021 to 30 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is C Herpin's strike rate?
C Herpin has won 4 of 85 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is C Herpin in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is C Herpin's Fair A/E?
0.83, from 77 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
C Herpin·SR 4.7%·A/E 0.83
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