Theo Chevillard
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 150 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (61 rides).
Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 19.7% (n=61, Fair A/E 1.16), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.4% (n=202, Fair A/E 0.82). Mlle E Allaire supplies 12% of the rides and beats the rider's average (21.1% vs 9.1%, A/E 1.27) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly over 2m5f – 3m — 3% over 101 rides, 6.1pts below the baseline. 39 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix du President de la Republique Handicap) at Auteuil (FR) (Apr 2018, £89,602). The standout partner of the record: Delmegan (FR) — 5 wins from 8 rides together.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
SteadyBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2015→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,187 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,187 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 March 2015 to 9 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Theo Chevillard's strike rate?
- Theo Chevillard has won 68 of 746 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Theo Chevillard do best at?
- Compiegne (FR) by strike rate: 19 wins from 157 rides (12.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Theo Chevillard ride most for?
- Mlle E Allaire, with 90 rides since 2022 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (21.1%).
- Is Theo Chevillard in form?
- In the last 14 days: 19 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 10.5%. That is in line with the baseline of 9.1% since 2022.
- What is Theo Chevillard's Fair A/E?
- 0.96, from 744 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.