What is David A Hayes's strike rate?

David A Hayes has won 12 of 162 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David A Hayes do best at?

Sha Tin by strike rate: 10 wins from 104 runners (9.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is David A Hayes's Fair A/E?

0.72, from 74 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

David A Hayes

162 runners in the lifetime window · 60 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 34 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

12–162

Wins / Runs

7.4%

Strike rate

n=162

35 (22%)

Placed

0.72

Fair A/E

n=74 · 0.59 incl. margin

−1.60

£1 level stake

n=74 at SP · −2.2%

£2.19m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them. The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 10% off breaks of two months or more (40 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 162 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 10%

The read

It is weakest at Happy Valley (3.7% over 54 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The record reads poorly on Good to Firm going — 3.4% over 58 runners, 4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.26 across 76 runners (3.9% strike, −39.20 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10%+2.6

n=40 · A/E 3.65 · £1 +27.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

20%+12.6

n=5 · A/E 4.24 · £1 +28.00

Debutants · first career start

5.5%−1.9

n=55 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −32.60

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.4%−2.0

n=37 · A/E 0.77 · £1 +5.80

When favourite

25%

n=8 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −1.60

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10%+2.6

n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.4

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Good to Firm going 3.4% vs 7.4% · n=58

On Good going 3.9% vs 7.4% · n=76

At Happy Valley 3.7% vs 7.4% · n=54

At Sha Tin 9.6% vs 7.4% · n=104

Off a 15-30-day break 5% vs 7.4% · n=40

With debutants 5.5% vs 7.4% · n=55 · A/E 0.56

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 76 3 3.9% −39.20

Good to Firm 58 2 3.4% −13.00

Good to Soft 15 2 13.3% +20.00

Standard (AW) 12 4 33.3% +30.00

Soft 1 1 100% +0.60

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Sha Tin 104 10 9.6% −6.60

Happy Valley 54 2 3.7% +9.00

Ascot 2 0 0% −2.00

York 1 0 0% −1.00

Newmarket 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 36 3 8.3% +6.80

Class 3 23 0 0% −16.00

Class 1 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 2 6 1 16.7% −2.00

Class 5 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 8 2 25% 0.69 −1.60

2nd–3rd fav 14 1 7.1% 0.47 −10.00

4th–6th fav 11 0 0% 0.00 −11.00

7th+ in betting 41 2 4.9% 1.97 +21.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Oriental Surprise (AUS) 5 0 5 4 Oct 26

Pocketing (AUS) 5 0 0 4 Oct 26

All Round Winner (AUS) 5 1 1 4 Oct 26

Metro Power (AUS) 5 0 0 4 Oct 26

Harmony N Blessed (AUS) 5 0 1 23 Sep 26

Positive Smile (NZ) 4 0 0 4 Oct 26

Joltin (IRE)from Noel Meade 4 0 0 4 Oct 26

Turbo Jefferies (AUS) 4 0 0 4 Oct 26

Kol (AUS) 4 1 1 4 Oct 26

Tomodachi Kokoroe (AUS) 4 0 1 1 Oct 26

Star Brose (GB) 4 0 2 1 Oct 26

Soleil Fighter (GB)from Richard Hughes 4 1 1 27 Sep 26

All 60 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 55 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 59 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

····0860913··

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHarry Bentley

19% of all rides
6.7% SR · A/E 1.47

RiderRWSR£1

Harry Bentley 30 2 6.7% +20.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→

Archived wins

£2.19m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 12 wins

Ka Ying Rising (NZ) — The HKSAR Chief Executive's Cup (Handicap) - Group 3 Sha Tin (HK) · Sep 2026

£338,722

Soleil Fighter (GB) — Peacock Handicap (Course C+3) (Turf) Sha Tin (HK) · Jun 2026 · Class 2

£166,559

All Round Winner (AUS) — Shek Wai Kok Handicap Sha Tin (HK) · Oct 2026

£165,329

Notable horses

Bustling City (AUS) All Round Winner (AUS) Soleil Fighter (GB) Kol (AUS) Leaping Star (IRE) Starry Show (AUS)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 30% · 3–10

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,222 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,199.

Deep Field (AUS) 12.5% · 1–8

Progeny have won 8.6% of 105 runs since 2026 (41 horses).

Written Tycoon (AUS) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 10.8% of 37 runs since 2023 (18 horses).

Cosmic Force (AUS) 16.7% · 1–6

Progeny have won 10% of 10 runs since 2026 (5 horses). A small sample.

All Too Hard (AUS) 0% · 0–5

Progeny have won 11.5% of 52 runs since 2023 (21 horses).

Divine Prophet (AUS) 20% · 1–5

Progeny have won 9.5% of 295 runs since 2021 (20 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 162 · newest first

The latest 50 of 162 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 June 2010 to 4 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Metro Power (AUS)J: Lyle Hewitson Shing Mun Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) All Round Winner (AUS)J: Harry Bentley Shek Wai Kok Handicap8f · Standard · 11 ran 1st —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Pocketing (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla The Chinese Recreation Club Challenge Cup (Handicap)9f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Happy Promise (AUS)J: Andrea Atzeni Sham Tseng Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 10th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Positive Smile (NZ)J: Zac Purton The Yan Chai Trophy (Handicap)7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 9th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Leaping Star (IRE)J: Harry Bentley Sha Tsui Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 7th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Joltin (IRE)J: Matthew Poon Sha Tsui Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 5th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Turbo Jefferies (AUS)J: Harry Bentley Lo Wai Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Kol (AUS)J: Zac Purton Kwok Shui Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 1st —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Oriental Surprise (AUS)J: Zac Purton Chai Wan Kok Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Fortune Boy (NZ)J: Brenton Avdulla Tianjin Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Ka Ying Radiance (AUS)J: Matthew Poon Chongqing Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 2nd —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Star Brose (GB)J: M L Yeung Jinan Handicap9f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Talents Champion (AUS)J: M L Yeung Hangzhou Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 14th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Jedi Spurs (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla Hangzhou Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 2nd —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Tomodachi Kokoroe (AUS)J: Harry Bentley The National Day Cup (Handicap)5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Storm Rider (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla Magpie Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 5th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Shamus Storm (AUS)J: Harry Bentley Mesia Handicap8f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 3rd —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Soleil Fighter (GB)J: Harry Bentley The Celebration Cup (Handicap)7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 5th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Bustling City (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla Hwamei Handicap6f · Standard · 12 ran 1st —

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David A Hayes's strike rate?: David A Hayes has won 12 of 162 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David A Hayes do best at?: Sha Tin by strike rate: 10 wins from 104 runners (9.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is David A Hayes's Fair A/E?: 0.72, from 74 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.