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Trainer profile

Dominic Elsworth

38 runners in the last 5 seasons · 9 individual horses
As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 170 days ago 97% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)
from 1 Jan 2022
3–38
Wins / Runs
7.9%
Strike rate
n=38
11 (29%)
Placed
0.78
Fair A/E
n=38 · 0.66 incl. margin
−23.12
£1 level stake
n=38 at SP · −60.8%
£31,329
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−7.9
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.9
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.9
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
33.3%+25.4
n=3 · A/E 3.75 · £1 +1.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
50%+42.1
n=2 · A/E 8.61 · £1 +5.50
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
50%+42.1
n=2 · A/E 1.49 · £1 +0.88

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 26 3 11.5% −11.12
NH Flat 8 0 0% −8.00
Chase 3 0 0% −3.00
Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 21 3 14.3% −6.12
Heavy 6 0 0% −6.00
Soft 6 0 0% −6.00
Good to Soft 4 0 0% −4.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Stratford 5 1 20% −0.50
Hereford 5 1 20% +2.50
Uttoxeter 4 0 0% −4.00
Ffos Las 3 0 0% −3.00
Chepstow 3 0 0% −3.00
Worcester 3 0 0% −3.00
Market Rasen 2 1 50% +0.88
Ludlow 2 0 0% −2.00
Huntingdon 2 0 0% −2.00
Catterick 2 0 0% −2.00
Wincanton 1 0 0% −1.00
Chester 1 0 0% −1.00
Wetherby 1 0 0% −1.00
Warwick 1 0 0% −1.00
Aintree 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 22 1 4.5% −19.12
Class 5 16 2 12.5% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 0 0% 0.00 −4.00
2nd–3rd fav 7 2 28.6% 1.75 +0.38
4th–6th fav 19 1 5.3% 0.77 −11.50
7th+ in betting 8 0 0% 0.00 −8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
75.9% completed · 29 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 3 0% 2 0 1 0 0
Hurdle 26 84.6% 1 0 3 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Al Mootamarid (IRE)from Marco Botti · then Dom Elsworth & Ryan Hatch 8 1 2 8 May 26
Emerald Time (GB)then Dom Elsworth & Ryan Hatch 6 0 1 15 May 26
Emerald Breeze (GB) 6 1 4 5 Apr 26
Copper Cove (IRE)from Jonjo & A J O'Neill 6 0 1 25 Feb 26
Lord Chamberlain (GB)from David Simcock · then Dom Elsworth & Ryan Hatch 5 1 2 14 Apr 26
Emerald Warrior (IRE) 3 0 1 11 Feb 26
Emerald Ocean (IRE) 2 0 0 16 May 26
Emerald Jewel (GB) 1 0 0 12 May 25
Red Circle (FR)from Scott Dixon 1 0 0 29 Mar 25
All 9 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 9 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard, most often for Dom Elsworth & Ryan Hatch (3); 6 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0005001000000··
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Robert Dunne 13 2 15.4% −1.00
Tom Bellamy 13 0 0% −13.00
Kielan Woods 3 0 0% −3.00
Ciaran Gethings 2 0 0% −2.00
Toby McCain-Mitchell 2 1 50% +0.88
Sam Twiston-Davies 1 0 0% −1.00
Gavin Sheehan 1 0 0% −1.00
Brendan Powell 1 0 0% −1.00
Liam Harrison 1 0 0% −1.00
Taylor Fisher 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→
3
Archived wins
£31,329
Prize money
2026
Best season · 2 wins
Emerald Breeze (GB) — Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Market Rasen · Apr 2026 · Class 4
£5,446
Lord Chamberlain (GB) — Visit Herefordshire Novices' Handicap Hurdle Hereford · Apr 2026 · Class 5
£5,281
Al Mootamarid (IRE) — 20th July Is Ladies Day Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Stratford · Jun 2025 · Class 5
£4,040
Notable horses
Al Mootamarid (IRE) Emerald Breeze (GB) Lord Chamberlain (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Kingman (GB) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 14.5% of 7,514 runs since 2018 (777 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.1% from 968. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 122.
Jet Away (GB) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,534 runs since 2018 (273 horses).
Passing Glance (GB) 16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,555 runs since 2008 (293 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 110. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Time Test (GB) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 11% of 3,139 runs since 2021 (337 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.9% from 332. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.7% from 319.
Masar (IRE) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 11.6% of 1,230 runs since 2023 (176 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.6% from 167. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 8.2% from 134. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15% from 167. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.7% from 220.
Elusive Pimpernel (USA) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 7.7% of 3,141 runs since 2015 (317 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 10.7% from 382.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

all 38 archived runs · newest first

Every one of Dominic Elsworth's 38 archived runners, from 22 January 2025 to 16 May 2026, newest first — 3 winners among them.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
16 May 26 Uttoxeter Emerald Ocean (IRE)J: Brendan Powell Carlsberg Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 7th 125/1
15 May 26 Aintree Emerald Time (GB)J: Tom Bellamy Mental Health Awareness Week Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 5th 11/2
08 May 26 Chester Al Mootamarid (IRE)J: Taylor Fisher Chester Roman Day On 30th May Apprentice Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12.5f · Good · 15 ran 11th 50/1
14 Apr 26 Market Rasen Lord Chamberlain (GB)J: Toby McCain-Mitchell CopyBet Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 11/8F
06 Apr 26 Hereford Lord Chamberlain (GB)J: Robert Dunne Visit Herefordshire Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 1st 13/2
05 Apr 26 Market Rasen Emerald Breeze (GB)J: Toby McCain-Mitchell Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 5 ran 1st 15/8
27 Mar 26 Wetherby Emerald Time (GB)J: Tom Bellamy wearahatday Supporting Brain Tumour Awareness Month Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 15 ran 6th 18/1
14 Mar 26 Uttoxeter Emerald Ocean (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies JenningsBet Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 12 ran 12th 12/1
11 Mar 26 Huntingdon Lord Chamberlain (GB)J: Robert Dunne Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 15 ran 6th 40/1
26 Feb 26 Ludlow Lord Chamberlain (GB)J: Kielan Woods Butty Bach Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 66/1
25 Feb 26 Bangor-on-Dee Copper Cove (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Nightingale House Hospice Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Soft · 8 ran PU 9/2
24 Feb 26 Catterick Emerald Time (GB)J: Tom Bellamy Racing TV Club Day Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 16/1
13 Feb 26 Chepstow Emerald Breeze (GB)J: Tom Bellamy fairplaybet.co.uk Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 14 ran 3rd 7/2
11 Feb 26 Hereford Copper Cove (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Richard Layton Charity Raceday 16th April Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Heavy · 10 ran F 9/2
11 Feb 26 Hereford Emerald Warrior (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Blackmore Building Contractors Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Heavy · 13 ran PU 6/1
04 Feb 26 Ludlow Emerald Time (GB)J: Tom Bellamy Ludlow Members Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran F 16/1
30 Jan 26 Ffos Las Emerald Breeze (GB)J: Robert Dunne tigerbet.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 12/1
29 Jan 26 Wincanton Lord Chamberlain (GB)J: Robert Dunne Visit Irish Bloodstock Sales With ITM Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15f · Heavy · 17 ran 11th 150/1
08 Jan 26 Ffos Las Copper Cove (IRE)J: Kielan Woods Bet And Stream British At DragonBet Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 5/2F
08 Jan 26 Ffos Las Emerald Breeze (GB)J: Kielan Woods BOG On British Racing At DragonBet Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Dominic Elsworth's strike rate?
Dominic Elsworth has won 3 of 38 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Dominic Elsworth's Fair A/E?
0.78, from 38 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 2 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).