What is Toby McCain-Mitchell's strike rate?

Toby McCain-Mitchell has won 53 of 318 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 16.7% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which yard does Toby McCain-Mitchell ride most for?

Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies, with 73 rides since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (17.8%).

Is Toby McCain-Mitchell in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Toby McCain-Mitchell's Fair A/E?

1.15, from 317 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Toby McCain-Mitchell

318 rides in the last 5 seasons · 193 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)

from 1 Jan 2022

53–318

Wins / Runs

16.7%

Strike rate

n=318

123 (39%)

Placed

1.15

Fair A/E

n=317 · 0.98 incl. margin

+2.62

£1 level stake

n=318 at SP · +0.8%

£685k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 17% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.15). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (50 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 318 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 32% when favourite Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies: 17.8% from 73 First rides: 17.3% LTO winners: 20% Rides the favourite in 16% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20% (n=50, Fair A/E 1.03), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 7.9% (n=38, Fair A/E 1.25). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 17.3% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.25 and +33.88 to a £1 stake over 191 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies supplies 23% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (17.8%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Class 3 (25%, n=36) and over 2m1f – 2m4f (20.2%, n=84). The market has also underrated the rider off a 31-60-day break: Fair A/E 1.41 across 86 rides (19.8% strike, +23.18 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 12.1% over 33 rides, 4.6pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 16.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

17.3%+0.6

n=191 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +33.88

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20%+3.3

n=50 · A/E 1.03 · £1 +17.38

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

15.7%−1.0

n=83 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +17.70

When favourite

32%

n=50 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −11.51

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

16%−0.7

n=275 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −31.51

Big fields · 14+ runners

7.9%−8.8

n=38 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −6.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−16.7

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Nigel Twiston-Davies 35.5% vs 16.7% · n=31

In Class 3 25% vs 16.7% · n=36

Off a 61-180-day break 12.1% vs 16.7% · n=33

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 20.2% vs 16.7% · n=84

Off a 31-60-day break 19.8% vs 16.7% · n=86

On last-time-out winners 20% vs 16.7% · n=50

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 168 27 16.1% −6.94

Chase 123 20 16.3% −6.07

NH Flat 27 6 22.2% +15.63

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 138 22 15.9% −16.46

Good to Soft 98 15 15.3% +4.65

Soft 53 9 17% −5.37

Heavy 21 4 19% +17.00

Good to Firm 8 3 37.5% +2.80

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ludlow 26 7 26.9% +5.25

Chepstow 25 4 16% −14.24

Bangor-on-Dee 19 3 15.8% −7.58

Hereford 15 2 13.3% −3.00

Southwell 14 1 7.1% −7.50

Leicester 11 1 9.1% +15.00

Stratford 11 2 18.2% −3.50

Haydock 11 1 9.1% +8.00

Warwick 11 2 18.2% +3.00

Cheltenham 11 1 9.1% +0.00

Exeter 10 1 10% −1.50

Market Rasen 10 1 10% −7.12

Aintree 10 1 10% +1.00

Ffos Las 10 3 30% +10.75

Worcester 9 2 22.2% +6.38

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 128 20 15.6% −38.70

Class 5 120 19 15.8% +4.02

Class 3 36 9 25% +14.30

Class 2 21 5 23.8% +36.00

Class 1 10 0 0% −10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 54 17 31.5% 0.98 −11.01

2nd–3rd fav 102 22 21.6% 1.18 +9.63

4th–6th fav 98 11 11.2% 1.39 +8.00

7th+ in betting 64 3 4.7% 1.52 −4.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

89.3% completed · 291 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 123 81.3% 7 1 15 0 0

Hurdle 168 95.2% 0 0 8 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Slievegar (GB) 7 1 2 13 Jul 25

One True King (IRE) 6 2 4 2 Apr 24

Williethebuilder (IRE) 5 3 3 18 Oct 26

Glynn Brae (IRE) 5 2 2 10 Oct 26

Beau Quali (FR) 5 1 3 9 Oct 26

My Bobby Dazzler (GB) 5 1 2 4 Apr 26

Safe Destination (GB) 5 3 5 12 Oct 25

Little Pi (FR) 4 1 2 11 Oct 26

Prince De Juilley (FR) 4 1 3 24 Jul 26

Annie Express (IRE) 4 2 2 22 Apr 26

Top Of The Bill (IRE) 4 1 2 11 Apr 26

The Newest One (IRE) 4 1 2 28 Mar 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 193 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 4

Only 4 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1318171510140015291717

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardNigel & Willy Twiston-Davies

23% of all rides
17.8% SR · A/E 1.16

TrainerRWSR£1

Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies 73 13 17.8% +7.97

Nigel Twiston-Davies 31 11 35.5% +34.16

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→

Archived wins

£687k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 25 wins

Beauport (IRE) — 1st Class Logistics Berkshire National Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Ascot · Nov 2024 · Class 2

£38,967

Top Of The Bill (IRE) — Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Haydock · Nov 2025 · Class 2

£26,015

Melon (GER) — Debenhams Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys/Amateur Riders) (GBB Race) Aintree · Apr 2026 · Class 2

£25,720

Notable horses

Williethebuilder (IRE) Safe Destination (GB) One True King (IRE) Glynn Brae (IRE) Annie Express (IRE) Our Bill's Aunt (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Getaway (GER) 26.3% · 5–19

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,934 runs since 2008 (1,028 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.3% from 133.

Westerner (GB) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,837 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Fame And Glory (GB) 16.7% · 2–12

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,208 runs since 2008 (504 horses).

Pether's Moon (IRE) 40% · 4–10

Progeny have won 13.2% of 906 runs since 2008 (106 horses).

Passing Glance (GB) 11.1% · 1–9

Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,544 runs since 2008 (292 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 110. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.

Califet (FR) 37.5% · 3–8

Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,793 runs since 2008 (399 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 327 · newest first

The latest 50 of 327 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 28 January 2020 to 28 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 Oct 26 Huntingdon All Good To Go (GB)T: Alex Hales Advertise At Huntingdon Racecourse Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 8th 40/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Mr Mackay (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 13/2

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Williethebuilder (IRE)T: Christian Williams Download The www.betvickers.com App Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 1st 9/1

17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Ivor Bear (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Pertemps Network Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 8/11F

13 Oct 26 Southwell Thelasthighking (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Case Ih Drive Performance Drive Puma Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 9/4J

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Little Pi (FR)T: Sam Allwood Dragonbet Daily Extra Place Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 7/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Glynn Brae (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle Race (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 9th 8/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Orchard County (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Dragonbet Backing Welsh Racing Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 11th 10/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Beau Quali (FR)T: Christian Williams LSL Racing Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 14th 22/1

05 Oct 26 Stratford Emerald Time (GB)T: Ryan Hatch Thanks To Our Raceday Team Past And Present Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 1st 7/2

03 Oct 26 Fontwell Broadway Honey (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Download The At The Races App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good · 4 ran 1st 11/8F

25 Sep 26 Worcester Al Mootamarid (IRE)T: Ryan Hatch Fbc Manby Bowdler Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 5th 5/1

22 Sep 26 Warwick Malinas Glory (IRE)T: Alastair Ralph Molson Coors Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 5th 7/4F

18 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Broadway Honey (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Bayside Signs & Display Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 7/4F

10 Sep 26 Worcester Emerald Tir (GB)T: Ryan Hatch CopyBet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 12/1

06 Sep 26 Fontwell Clever Relation (GB)T: Christian Williams Download The At The Races App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 7/2

05 Sep 26 Stratford Lord Of The Glance (GB)T: Alex Hales Allan Atkinson Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 1/1F

04 Sep 26 Worcester Emerald Time (GB)T: Ryan Hatch Step Into Luxury With Purple Granite Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 5/2

29 Aug 26 Cartmel Lord Of The Glance (GB)T: Alex Hales Mountain Goat Tours Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 16/1

24 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Prince De Juilley (FR)T: Alastair Ralph Eaton Hall Shooting Ground Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Toby McCain-Mitchell's strike rate?: Toby McCain-Mitchell has won 53 of 318 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 16.7% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Toby McCain-Mitchell ride most for?: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies, with 73 rides since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (17.8%).
Is Toby McCain-Mitchell in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Toby McCain-Mitchell's Fair A/E?: 1.15, from 317 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.