What is F Carnevali's strike rate?

F Carnevali has won 5 of 148 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does F Carnevali do best at?

Chantilly (AW) by strike rate: 0 wins from 63 runners (0%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Is F Carnevali in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is F Carnevali's Fair A/E?

0.84, from 148 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

F Carnevali

148 runners in the lifetime window · 19 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

5–148

Wins / Runs

3.4%

Strike rate

n=148

15 (10%)

Placed

0.84

Fair A/E

n=148 · 0.68 incl. margin

−83.70

£1 level stake

n=148 at SP · −56.6%

£90,077

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.84).

Deterministic profile computed from 148 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 4.3%

The read

It is weakest at Chantilly (AW) (0% over 63 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. The yard also reads well on Soft going (9.4%, n=32). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 0% over 54 runners, 3.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 0.41 across 51 runners (2% strike, −41.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.3%+0.9

n=46 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −7.20

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−3.4

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−3.4

n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00

When favourite

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

1.7%−1.7

n=58 · A/E 0.43 · £1 −31.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Soft going 9.4% vs 3.4% · n=32

At Chantilly (AW) 0% vs 3.4% · n=63

On Standard (AW) going 0% vs 3.4% · n=54

With claiming riders up 1.7% vs 3.4% · n=58 · A/E 0.43

Off a 15-30-day break 2% vs 3.4% · n=51 · A/E 0.41

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 147 5 3.4% −82.70

Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 54 0 0% −54.00

Good to Soft 32 1 3.1% −24.10

Soft 32 3 9.4% +16.30

Good 21 0 0% −21.00

Heavy 8 1 12.5% +0.10

Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chantilly (AW) 63 0 0% −63.00

Saint-Cloud 28 2 7.1% −8.10

Longchamp (FR) 18 2 11.1% +16.90

Deauville (FR) 15 0 0% −15.00

Compiegne (FR) 6 1 16.7% +3.50

Dieppe (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00

Clairefontaine (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00

Fontainebleau (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Le Mans (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Argentan (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Le Touquet (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00

Vichy (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Le Croise-Laroche (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 13 0 0% −13.00

Class 3 12 1 8.3% −2.50

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00

2nd–3rd fav 14 1 7.1% 0.53 −5.90

4th–6th fav 16 2 12.5% 1.82 +1.40

7th+ in betting 116 2 1.7% 0.76 −77.20

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

E Va Bin (IRE) 27 1 6 28 Oct 26

Bramante (FR) 19 0 0 1 Oct 26

Iridia (GER) 16 0 2 9 Oct 26

Lisippo (IRE) 13 2 3 2 Nov 26

Ever Ready (FR) 13 0 0 17 Sep 26

Aston Juan (FR) 11 1 1 14 Oct 26

First Shot (FR)from Gianluca Bietolini 10 0 0 11 Feb 23

Danzica Girl (FR) 7 1 2 18 Sep 26

E Basta La (ITY) 7 0 0 3 Jun 25

Ivan The Zar (IRE) 5 0 0 16 Sep 22

Safiyann (FR)from Mario Baratti 4 0 1 15 Apr 22

Edgar Best (IRE)from A & G Botti 3 0 0 6 Apr 22

All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 19 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 15 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 3

Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

00001400058110

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

RiderRWSR£1

Giovanni Sias 26 0 0% −26.00

A Hamelin 25 3 12% +4.20

Mlle Axelle Nicco 24 0 0% −24.00

Rosario Mangione 10 0 0% −10.00

Yohann Bourgois 6 0 0% −6.00

Cesar Belmont 6 0 0% −6.00

Mme Mickaelle Michel 6 0 0% −6.00

Stephane Pasquier 5 1 20% +3.10

Mme Frida Valle Skar 4 0 0% −4.00

Pierre Remoue 4 0 0% −4.00

Mme Sarah Pedron 4 1 25% +23.00

Luka Rousseau 3 0 0% −3.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

Archived wins

£90,077

Prize money

2026

Best season · 2 wins

E Va Bin (IRE) — Prix des Champs Elysees (Handicap) (4yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · May 2024

£11,739

Lisippo (IRE) — Prix Du Carrefour Du Fond Pernant Compiegne (FR) · Oct 2026 · Class 3

£11,050

Lisippo (IRE) — Prix des Falaises des Vaches Noires (Handicap) (3yo+) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Nov 2025

£9,132

Notable horses

Lisippo (IRE) E Va Bin (IRE) Aston Juan (FR) Danzica Girl (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kingman (GB) 3.7% · 1–27

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,529 runs since 2018 (778 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 122.

Danon Ballade (JPN) 0% · 0–20

Progeny have won 7.1% of 112 runs since 2020 (10 horses).

Cracksman (GB) 0% · 0–16

Progeny have won 11.4% of 1,822 runs since 2022 (239 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 105. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16% from 268.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 0% · 0–13

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,863 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Soldier Hollow (GB) 15.4% · 2–13

Progeny have won 11.4% of 1,919 runs since 2011 (268 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8% from 488. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.9% from 383.

Persian King (IRE) 9.1% · 1–11

Progeny have won 10.7% of 945 runs since 2024 (165 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.9% from 289.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 148 · newest first

The latest 50 of 148 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2021 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Can Gha (IRE)J: Antoine Hamelin Prix De La Croix Saint-rieuil8f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 66/1

02 Nov 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Lisippo (IRE)J: Antoine Hamelin Prix Du Centre D'ecotourisme De FranchardClass 3 · 7f · Soft · 16 ran 15th 5/1

28 Oct 26 Le Mans (FR) E Va Bin (IRE)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix Jean MenandClass 4 · 9.5f · Heavy · 14 ran 14th 14/1

16 Oct 26 Fontainebleau (FR) E Va Bin (IRE)J: G Anton Prix Des MyosotisClass 4 · 8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 9th 50/1

14 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Aston Juan (FR)J: Cesar Belmont Prix Des Falaises De Craie10f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 9th 50/1

10 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Pro Sax (IRE)J: Cesar Belmont Prix De La Maniguette8f · Soft · 9 ran 9th 100/1

09 Oct 26 Compiegne (FR) Lisippo (IRE)J: Antoine Hamelin Prix Du Carrefour Du Fond PernantClass 3 · 7f · Very Soft · 15 ran 1st 17/2

09 Oct 26 Compiegne (FR) Iridia (GER)J: Antoine Hamelin Prix Du Carrefour Du Vivier CoraxClass 4 · 7f · Very Soft · 16 ran 2nd 9/1

01 Oct 26 Argentan (FR) Bramante (FR)J: Cesar Belmont Prix Benjamin BoutinClass 4 · 9.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 33/1

29 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Pro Sax (IRE)J: Antoine Hamelin Prix De Villebon8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 13th 40/1

23 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Lisippo (IRE)J: Antoine Hamelin Prix De Bruyere-sur-oise8f · Good · 14 ran 13th 25/1

23 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Aston Juan (FR)J: Antoine Hamelin Prix De Noisy-sur-oise8f · Good · 15 ran 11th 28/1

18 Sep 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Danzica Girl (FR)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix JouvenceClass 3 · 12f · Good · 13 ran 10th 12/1

17 Sep 26 Dieppe (FR) Ever Ready (FR)J: Costantino Carboni Prix De PornichetClass 4 · 9f · Soft · 14 ran 12th 33/1

11 Sep 26 Le Mans (FR) Iridia (GER)J: Rosario Mangione Prix Bernard ChausseClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 9th 14/1

09 Sep 26 Dieppe (FR) Bramante (FR)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix De LannoyClass 4 · 12f · Soft · 14 ran 14th 20/1

04 Sep 26 Chantilly (FR) Aston Juan (FR)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix De CinqueuxClass 3 · 9f · Soft · 11 ran 11th 16/1

01 Sep 26 Deauville (FR) Lisippo (IRE)J: Antoine Hamelin Prix Du Marais DozetClass 3 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 6th 7/1

24 Aug 26 Dieppe (FR) Danzica Girl (FR)J: Stephane Pasquier Prix VasterivalClass 3 · 12f · Very Soft · 13 ran 5th 9/2

19 Aug 26 Vichy (FR) Iridia (GER)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix De Beaune D'allier7f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is F Carnevali's strike rate?: F Carnevali has won 5 of 148 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does F Carnevali do best at?: Chantilly (AW) by strike rate: 0 wins from 63 runners (0%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is F Carnevali in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is F Carnevali's Fair A/E?: 0.84, from 148 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.