Cesar Belmont
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 70 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.06). The rider is in form now — 3 winners in the last fortnight, above their own baseline.
The record is strongest at Longchamp (FR) (11.8%, n=34), clear of the rider's 6.2% baseline. It is weakest at Saint-Cloud (FR) (3.2% over 62 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Right now the rider is firing: 3 winners from 21 rides in the last 14 days (14.3%, 8.1pts above the 6.2% baseline). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 3% over 33 rides, 3.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good to Soft going: Fair A/E 0.53 across 57 rides (3.5% strike, −36.30 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix de Precy at Chantilly (FR) (Apr 2024, £23,043).
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.2% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
In formBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2020→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 369 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 369 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 31 October 2020 to 10 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Cesar Belmont's strike rate?
- Cesar Belmont has won 22 of 357 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Cesar Belmont do best at?
- Longchamp (FR) by strike rate: 4 wins from 34 rides (11.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Is Cesar Belmont in form?
- In the last 14 days: 21 rides, 3 winners, a strike rate of 14.3%. That is above the baseline of 6.2% since 2022.
- What is Cesar Belmont's Fair A/E?
- 1.06, from 357 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.