Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 170 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 18% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96).
Deterministic profile computed from 825 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance35.1% when favouriteCristian Demuro: 21.4% from 420Sends off the favourite in 24% of races
The read
In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 14.3% (n=357, Fair A/E 0.86). Cristian Demuro rides 51% of the entries and edges the yard's average (21.4% vs 17.8%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well over 6f – 7f (22.2%, n=189). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 12.2% over 98 runners, 5.6pts below the baseline. 365 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2023, £2,528,319). The stable star of the record: Wally (IRE) — 11 wins from 30 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 17.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
16.5%−1.3
n=243 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −73.67
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−17.8
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Debutants · first career start
19.2%+1.4
n=229 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −81.75
First-time headgear · true-first definition
15.6%−2.2
n=45 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −22.70
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−17.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
35.1%
n=202 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −37.35
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
14.6%−3.2
n=89 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −28.60
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
14.3%−3.5
n=357 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −82.35
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 17.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Ioritz Mendizabal6.5% vs 17.8% · n=31
With Jean-Bernard Eyquem10.9% vs 17.8% · n=101
On last-time-out winners24.2% vs 17.8% · n=132
With Coralie Pacaut11.8% vs 17.8% · n=93
Off a break of 180+ days12.2% vs 17.8% · n=98
Over 6f – 7f22.2% vs 17.8% · n=189
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft2675621%+0.20
Soft2353916.6%−81.10
Standard (AW)1362115.4%−61.10
Good1141815.8%−42.22
Heavy681217.6%−19.40
Good to Firm5120%−1.25
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)1963316.8%−45.00
Longchamp (FR)1803117.2%−35.10
Chantilly1613219.9%−33.30
Saint-Cloud1111816.2%−42.20
Toulouse (FR)36719.4%−14.18
La Teste De Buch (FR)32412.5%−14.10
Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR)24416.7%−9.42
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)19210.5%−13.80
Compiegne (FR)10330%+12.20
Marseille Borely (FR)800%−8.00
Mont-De-Marsan (FR)8225%−1.85
Clairefontaine (FR)7114.3%−2.00
Craon (FR)5120%−1.70
Vichy (FR)5120%−1.90
Dax (FR)4125%−2.27
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 13575114.3%−82.35
Class 217317.6%−6.50
Class 3600%−6.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2147434.6%1.01−38.40
2nd–3rd fav3135316.9%0.92−76.27
4th–6th fav209188.6%0.95−50.50
7th+ in betting8922.2%0.61−39.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f3456318.3%−91.35
1m2f – 1m4f2724014.7%−104.30
6f – 7f1894222.2%+3.98
1m5f – 2m12216.7%−6.20
Under 6f700%−7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222395422.6%−31.75
20232113617.1%−66.10
20241633119%−9.20
20251001212%−38.10
20261121412.5%−59.72
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps57610.5%−21.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3085517.9%−73.50
5-7 runners2656123%−76.27
11-13 runners1341712.7%+0.30
14-16 runners941010.6%−40.10
17+ runners1200%−12.00
2-4 runners12433.3%−3.30
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 289 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 58 had their first archived run for this yard.
21 have since run for another yard, most often for F-H Graffard (3) and C Escuder (2); 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
3051816211724142315138
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
1,412
Archived wins
365
Pattern / graded wins
£59.9m
Prize money
2014
Best season · 116 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ace Impact (IRE) — Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3yo+ No Geldings) (Grande) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2023 · Group 1
£2,528,319
Sottsass (FR) — Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3yo+) (Grande Course) (No Geldings) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2020 · Group 1
£1,632,847
Le Havre (IRE) — Prix du Jockey Club (Colts & Fillies) Chantilly (FR) · Jun 2009 · Group 1
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,089 runs since 2008 (282 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.2% from 154. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.8% from 145. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13% from 300.
Progeny have won 15.5% of 1,965 runs since 2008 (326 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 11% from 363. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 21.1% from 242. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7% from 201.
Invincible Spirit (IRE)20.8% · 5–24
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,816 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 5,573 · newest first
The latest 50 of 5,573 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 February 2005 to 4 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J-C Rouget's strike rate?
J-C Rouget has won 147 of 825 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 17.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does J-C Rouget do best at?
Chantilly by strike rate: 32 wins from 161 runners (19.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for J-C Rouget?
Cristian Demuro, with 420 runners since 2022 — 51% of the total. That pairing has won 90 (21.4%).
What is J-C Rouget's Fair A/E?
0.96, from 823 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
J-C Rouget·SR 17.8%·A/E 0.96
KTB
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