Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.14).
Deterministic profile computed from 134 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 24 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceDillon Maxwell: 5.7% from 53
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.2% (n=31, Fair A/E 0.93). Dillon Maxwell rides 40% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.7%, A/E 1.32) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Chase races (11.3%, n=62) and on Soft going (10.4%, n=48). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 3.2% over 63 runners, 3.5pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase at Cork (Nov 2024, £26,550). The stable star of the record: Black Benny (IRE) — 6 wins from 39 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.2%−3.5
n=31 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −21.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.7
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.7
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=7 · A/E 1.38 · £1 +1.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.3%−0.4
n=96 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −52.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
11.1%+4.4
n=9 · A/E 2.34 · £1 +0.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Chase races11.3% vs 6.7% · n=62
In Hurdle races3.2% vs 6.7% · n=63
On Soft going10.4% vs 6.7% · n=48
Off a 15-30-day break9.1% vs 6.7% · n=44
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle6323.2%−51.00
Chase62711.3%−14.00
Flat700%−7.00
NH Flat200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft48510.4%−15.50
Good3925.1%−26.00
Good to Soft3625.6%−21.50
Heavy900%−9.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kilbeggan18316.7%+0.00
Sligo1616.3%−8.00
Thurles1317.7%−8.00
Ballinrobe900%−9.00
Galway800%−8.00
Killarney700%−7.00
Punchestown700%−7.00
Cork7114.3%+2.00
Tipperary600%−6.00
Listowel600%−6.00
Navan600%−6.00
Wexford5120%+3.00
Downpatrick5240%+7.00
Limerick400%−4.00
Roscommon400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 19111.1%+0.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite10330%1.56+3.00
2nd–3rd fav13323.1%1.66+7.00
4th–6th fav28310.7%1.55−1.00
7th+ in betting8300%0.00−83.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4848.3%−27.00
2m5f – 3m3925.1%−27.00
1m5f – 2m2500%−25.00
Over 3m15320%+12.00
1m2f – 1m4f700%−7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223339.1%−16.00
20233912.6%−31.00
20242827.1%−11.00
202517211.8%−9.00
20261715.9%−7.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps10187.9%−49.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4724.3%−31.00
11-13 runners3525.7%−26.00
8-10 runners22313.6%+1.50
17+ runners2100%−21.00
5-7 runners9222.2%+2.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 14 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 14 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Joseph Patrick O'Brien (2) and Patrick G Kelly (2); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 13 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000001015780817
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
33
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£428k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Sphagnum (IRE) — Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase (0-150) (Listed) Cork · Nov 2024 · Listed
Progeny have won 4.8% of 518 runs since 2008 (38 horses).
Della Francesca (USA)4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 10% of 1,477 runs since 2008 (172 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13% from 338. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 16% from 100. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.3% from 160.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,277 runs since 2008 (311 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 965. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 864. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 724.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,921 runs since 2008 (1,028 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.5% from 132.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 611 · newest first
The latest 50 of 611 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 18 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J P Broderick's strike rate?
J P Broderick has won 9 of 134 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for J P Broderick?
Dillon Maxwell, with 53 runners since 2022 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5.7%).
Is J P Broderick in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is J P Broderick's Fair A/E?
1.14, from 134 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
J P Broderick·SR 6.7%·A/E 1.14
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy