Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 16.7%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
18.8%+4.5
n=16 · A/E 2.73 · £1 +10.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−14.3
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−14.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
25%+10.7
n=4 · A/E 8.66 · £1 +4.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−14.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
16.7%+2.4
n=48 · A/E 2.31 · £1 +53.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
16.7%+2.4
n=6 · A/E 3.11 · £1 +2.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up16.7% vs 14.3% · n=48
With a new jockey booking16.7% vs 14.3% · n=30
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle46613%+41.50
NH Flat12216.7%−1.00
Chase4125%+7.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft26311.5%−6.50
Good19421.1%+47.50
Heavy1119.1%+4.00
Good to Soft7114.3%+1.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Down Royal700%−7.00
Fairyhouse7114.3%+1.50
Punchestown7114.3%+8.00
Listowel7228.6%+4.00
Clonmel500%−5.00
Cork4125%+30.00
Downpatrick4125%+8.00
Leopardstown4125%+4.50
Limerick300%−3.00
Wexford (IRE)2150%+9.00
Navan200%−2.00
Kilbeggan (IRE)100%−1.00
Sedgefield100%−1.00
Tipperary100%−1.00
Tramore (IRE)11100%+8.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 16116.7%+2.50
Class 2100%−1.00
Class 5100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav13215.4%1.20+4.00
4th–6th fav22627.3%3.41+36.50
7th+ in betting2514%1.44+9.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f37513.5%+34.50
1m5f – 2m21314.3%+2.00
2m5f – 3m5120%+10.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022300%−3.00
20238112.5%+0.50
20245120%+1.00
202523417.4%+39.50
202624312.5%+8.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps22418.2%+42.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners16212.5%−1.50
17+ runners1516.7%+19.00
11-13 runners1417.1%−8.00
14-16 runners13430.8%+31.00
5-7 runners5120%+6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 8 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 8 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 6 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 7 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0000005033251002050
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,022 runs since 2008 (127 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.7% from 183. Weakest on Heavy going: 2.9% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 111.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 544 runs since 2008 (86 horses). Strongest on Good going: 16.2% from 148. Weakest on Soft going: 5.6% from 195. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.7% from 170. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 218.
Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,724 runs since 2008 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.
Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,823 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 194 · newest first
The latest 50 of 194 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 February 2008 to 26 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is P E Collins's strike rate?
P E Collins has won 9 of 63 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 14.3% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is P E Collins's Fair A/E?
1.90, from 63 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
P E Collins·SR 14.3%·A/E 1.90
KTB
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