What is P E Collins's strike rate?

P E Collins has won 20 of 194 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

What is P E Collins's Fair A/E?

1.26, from 194 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

P E Collins

194 runners in the lifetime window · 27 individual horses

As at 23 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 27 days ago 97% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

20–194

Wins / Runs

10.3%

Strike rate

n=194

56 (29%)

Placed

1.26

Fair A/E

n=194 · 1.01 incl. margin

−14.75

£1 level stake

n=194 at SP · −7.6%

£279k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.26). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 12% off breaks of two months or more (34 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 194 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 23 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 11.8% Claiming riders: 11.1%

The read

Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 11.1% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.37 and +9.00 to a £1 stake over 135 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (16.7%, n=66) and on Good going (15.7%, n=70). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 5.6% over 36 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.79 across 60 runners (6.7% strike, −36.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Neville Hotels Premier Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown (Dec 2025, £59,000). The stable star of the record: Hello Sweetie (GB) — 5 wins from 34 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

11.8%+1.5

n=34 · A/E 1.63 · £1 −3.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

25%+14.7

n=4 · A/E 2.57 · £1 +1.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−10.3

n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.1%−1.2

n=11 · A/E 2.36 · £1 −2.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

50%+39.7

n=2 · A/E 17.38 · £1 +13.00

When favourite

28.6%

n=7 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +0.25

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.1%+0.8

n=135 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +9.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.6%−4.7

n=18 · A/E 1.38 · £1 −9.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 15-30-day break 16.7% vs 10.3% · n=66

On Good going 15.7% vs 10.3% · n=70

On Heavy going 5.6% vs 10.3% · n=36

On Soft going 6.7% vs 10.3% · n=60

In Hurdle races 8% vs 10.3% · n=125

With claiming riders up 11.1% vs 10.3% · n=135 · A/E 1.37

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 125 10 8% −6.00

NH Flat 45 5 11.1% −16.00

Chase 18 4 22.2% +5.25

Flat 6 1 16.7% +2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 70 11 15.7% +33.75

Soft 60 4 6.7% −36.00

Heavy 36 2 5.6% −16.00

Good to Soft 21 2 9.5% +2.50

Good to Firm 7 1 14.3% +1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Down Royal 26 0 0% −26.00

Fairyhouse 18 1 5.6% −9.50

Downpatrick 14 1 7.1% −2.00

Punchestown 12 1 8.3% +3.00

Cork 12 2 16.7% +37.00

Clonmel 10 2 20% −1.50

Listowel 8 2 25% +3.00

Limerick 8 0 0% −8.00

Ballinrobe 8 3 37.5% +4.25

Tramore 7 2 28.6% +10.50

Navan 7 0 0% −7.00

Wexford 6 2 33.3% +11.00

Wexford 6 1 16.7% +5.00

Leopardstown 6 1 16.7% +2.50

Uttoxeter 6 1 16.7% −1.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 19 1 5.3% −10.50

Class 4 6 0 0% −6.00

Class 5 6 1 16.7% −1.50

Class 6 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 9 2 22.2% 0.97 −1.75

2nd–3rd fav 47 9 19.1% 1.28 +9.50

4th–6th fav 64 8 12.5% 1.75 +17.50

7th+ in betting 74 1 1.4% 0.46 −40.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.1% completed · 143 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 18 94.4% 0 1 0 0 0

Hurdle 125 87.2% 2 1 12 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hello Sweetie (GB) 34 5 16 18 Nov 17

Small Bucks (IRE)from Leanne Breen 17 3 4 3 Sep 26

Champagne Kid (IRE) 16 3 8 24 May 26

Staged Engagement (IRE) 16 1 5 6 Aug 21

The Irritator (IRE) 15 0 2 3 Jun 17

Tear Drops (IRE) 15 3 5 27 Dec 11

Leahs Tricks (IRE) 8 1 1 7 Feb 24

Shimmer's Rock (IRE)from P A Fahy 8 1 1 13 Feb 19

Shanliss (IRE) 7 0 1 10 Jan 15

Casterly Rock (IRE) 6 1 2 29 Nov 25

Aupcharlie (IRE)then W P Mullins 6 1 5 4 May 11

Mollys Star (IRE) 5 0 0 1 Jun 26

All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

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A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

RiderRWSR£1

Mr J P McKeown 24 4 16.7% +5.50

Eoghan Finegan 20 4 20% +42.50

Patrick M O'Brien 16 3 18.8% +16.50

Adam Short 12 1 8.3% −7.00

Keith Donoghue 10 2 20% +8.50

J J Slevin 9 2 22.2% −0.50

Dylan Robinson 7 0 0% −7.00

Robbie Colgan 6 0 0% −6.00

J B Kane 6 0 0% −6.00

Andrew P Thornton 5 0 0% −5.00

Jordan Benson 5 0 0% −5.00

Ger Fox 4 0 0% −4.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£279k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 4 wins

Champagne Kid (IRE) — Neville Hotels Premier Handicap Hurdle (0-150) (Listed) Leopardstown · Dec 2025 · Listed

£59,000

Hello Sweetie (GB) — Breaffy House Resort Handicap Chase Ballinrobe · May 2017

£12,320

Hello Sweetie (GB) — Mulholland Bookmakers Handicap Chase Ballinrobe · May 2017

£11,088

Notable horses

Hello Sweetie (GB) Small Bucks (IRE) Champagne Kid (IRE) Tear Drops (IRE) Staged Engagement (IRE) Leahs Tricks (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Westerner (GB) 15.2% · 7–46

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,830 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Vadamos (FR) 12.5% · 3–24

Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,088 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.2% from 155.

The Gurkha (IRE) 17.6% · 3–17

Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,022 runs since 2008 (127 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.7% from 183. Weakest on Heavy going: 2.9% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 111.

Darsi (FR) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,116 runs since 2008 (112 horses).

Beneficial (GB) 20% · 3–15

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Robin Des Pres (FR) 0% · 0–15

Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,800 runs since 2008 (229 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 194 · newest first

The latest 50 of 194 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 February 2008 to 26 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) West Away (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Charlie Chute Memorial Handicap Steeplechase22f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 11/2

03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Small Bucks (IRE)J: Mr E P Powell Midland Breeders Mares Handicap Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 8th 18/1

28 Aug 26 Down Royal (IRE) Small Bucks (IRE)J: Ben Harvey Golden Cow Handicap Hurdle17.5f · Good · 14 ran 8th 10/1

22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) West Away (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Canella Lane Handicap Steeplechase (Listed)Class 1 · 21f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 7/1

14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Small Bucks (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien John Fairbrother Memorial Mares Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 17/2

08 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) West Away (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Wexford Racecourse Park Run Beginners Steeplechase19f · Good · 6 ran 1st 10/1

29 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Small Bucks (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 20 ran 14th 14/1

22 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) West Away (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Wexford Quay Beginners Steeplechase19f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 7/1

14 Jul 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Small Bucks (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Join Racing TV Now With A Free Trial Handicap Hurdle18f · Good · 15 ran 1st 11/1

05 Jun 26 Clonmel Small Bucks (IRE)J: Hugh Horgan Bulmers Berries Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)16.5f · Good · 16 ran 10th 11/1

01 Jun 26 Listowel Mollys Star (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Southern Waste Management Mares Handicap Hurdle16f · Yielding · 10 ran PU 11/2

01 Jun 26 Listowel Shanliss Tricks (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Nora Canty Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 13 ran 7th 150/1

24 May 26 Uttoxeter Champagne Kid (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Wrights Centenary Gold Cup Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 5th 11/1

08 May 26 Downpatrick Small Bucks (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Angie Orr Still Celebrating Her 70th Birthday Mares Handicap Hurdle18f · Good · 12 ran 4th 13/2

08 May 26 Downpatrick Shanliss Tricks (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Maiden Hurdle19f · Good · 14 ran 7th 33/1

04 May 26 Down Royal Small Bucks (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Club Lemon Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17.5f · Good · 20 ran 7th 18/1

04 May 26 Down Royal Mollys Star (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Ballygowan Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 19 ran 7th 66/1

02 May 26 Punchestown Champagne Kid (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Lawlor's Of Naas Handicap Hurdle (Listed)20.5f · Yielding · 17 ran 9th 18/1

04 Apr 26 Fairyhouse Mollys Star (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran 9th 50/1

19 Mar 26 Cork Mollys Star (IRE)J: Aileen O'Sullivan William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Mares (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Yielding · 13 ran 6th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is P E Collins's strike rate?: P E Collins has won 20 of 194 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is P E Collins's Fair A/E?: 1.26, from 194 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.