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Trainer profile

P Fegan

51 runners in the lifetime window · 11 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Aug 2016 98% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
3–51
Wins / Runs
5.9%
Strike rate
n=51
9 (18%)
Placed
1.38
Fair A/E
n=51 · 1.09 incl. margin
−29.50
£1 level stake
n=51 at SP · −57.8%
£40,356
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 7.5%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.9
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.9
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.9
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.9
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 2.49 · £1 +3.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.5%+1.6
n=40 · A/E 1.64 · £1 −18.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Matthew Bowes 8.3% vs 5.9% · n=36
In Hurdle races 7.9% vs 5.9% · n=38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 38 3 7.9% −16.50
NH Flat 8 0 0% −8.00
Chase 4 0 0% −4.00
Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 18 0 0% −18.00
Heavy 14 2 14.3% −1.50
Good 10 1 10% −1.00
Good to Firm 7 0 0% −7.00
Good to Soft 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Ballinrobe 7 2 28.6% +7.50
Down Royal 7 0 0% −7.00
Punchestown 4 0 0% −4.00
Navan 4 0 0% −4.00
Fairyhouse 4 0 0% −4.00
Limerick 3 1 33.3% +4.00
Kilbeggan 2 0 0% −2.00
Roscommon 2 0 0% −2.00
Naas 2 0 0% −2.00
Leopardstown 2 0 0% −2.00
Gowran Park 2 0 0% −2.00
Downpatrick 2 0 0% −2.00
Cork 2 0 0% −2.00
Clonmel 1 0 0% −1.00
Bellewstown 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 1 50% 2.49 +3.50
2nd–3rd fav 3 0 0% 0.00 −3.00
4th–6th fav 12 2 16.7% 2.58 +4.00
7th+ in betting 34 0 0% 0.00 −34.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
85.7% completed · 42 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 4 100% 0 0 0 0 0
Hurdle 38 84.2% 1 1 3 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Melbourne Lady (GB) 18 2 7 15 Mar 16
Kings Fiddle (IRE)then Gordon Elliott 6 0 0 25 Jan 14
Its Now Or Never (IRE) 5 0 0 17 Mar 16
Keady Lady (IRE)then Karl Thornton 4 0 0 28 Aug 16
Dr Kildare (GB)from Gordon Elliott · then S J Mahon 4 0 1 5 Aug 13
Winforjoe (IRE)from John Bridger 4 0 0 17 Mar 12
Mac's Conflict (IRE)from D J Ryan 4 1 1 4 Feb 12
Billybhoy (IRE)from Neil McKnight 3 0 0 26 Jun 12
Run With Thebucket (GB) 1 0 0 16 May 15
Sky Americo (IRE) 1 0 0 6 Mar 14
Dark River (IRE) 1 0 0 15 Feb 12
All 11 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 11 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 8 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000000001000·20
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMatthew Bowes
71% of all rides
8.3% SR · A/E 1.64
RiderRWSR£1
Matthew Bowes 36 3 8.3% −14.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
3
Archived wins
£40,356
Prize money
2014
Best season · 2 wins
Melbourne Lady (GB) — O'Kelly Brothers Demolition Mares Handicap Hurdle Limerick · Dec 2014
£10,695
Melbourne Lady (GB) — Sponsors Day At Ballinrobe Mares Maiden Hurdle Ballinrobe · Sep 2014
£5,520
Mac's Conflict (IRE) — Follow Ballinrobe On Facebook Handicap Hurdle (80-95) Ballinrobe · Sep 2011
£4,830
Notable horses
Melbourne Lady (GB) Mac's Conflict (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Hawkeye (IRE) 11.1% · 2–18
Progeny have won 6.2% of 275 runs since 2008 (28 horses).
King's Theatre (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Mr Combustible (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 6.9% of 638 runs since 2008 (53 horses).
Anzillero (GER) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 12.7% of 551 runs since 2008 (75 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 9.7% from 267. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 8.3% from 120.
Close Conflict (USA) 25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 7.8% of 565 runs since 2008 (73 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.8% from 106.
Definite Article (GB) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 10.5% of 5,617 runs since 2008 (527 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.1% from 138. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 211.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 51 · newest first

The latest 50 of 51 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 August 2011 to 28 August 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
28 Aug 16 Cork (IRE) Keady Lady (IRE)J: Matthew Bowes corkracecourse.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 19 ran F 8/1
15 Jul 16 Kilbeggan Keady Lady (IRE)J: Matthew Bowes Tom McCormack Memorial Cup Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Yielding · 12 ran SU 33/1
18 Jun 16 Gowran Park Keady Lady (IRE)J: Matthew Bowes Coral.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 19 ran 9th 100/1
02 Apr 16 Navan Keady Lady (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Boardsmill Sires E.B.F. Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 14 ran 11th 66/1
17 Mar 16 Down Royal Its Now Or Never (IRE)J: Alison Clarke Daily Mirror Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 20 ran 10th 100/1
15 Mar 16 Cheltenham Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes OLBG Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle)Class 1 · 20f · Good To Soft · 19 ran 18th 150/1
17 Feb 16 Punchestown Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes punchestown.com Mares Hurdle20f · Heavy · 3 ran 3rd 25/1
07 Feb 16 Naas (IRE) Its Now Or Never (IRE)J: Alison Clarke Follow Naas Racecourse On Facebook Maiden Hurdle19f · Soft · 12 ran 8th 100/1
14 Jan 16 Thurles Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes Ocovango Coolmore National Hunt Sires E.B.F. Mares Novice Chase (grade 2)20f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 16/1
03 Jan 16 Naas Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Mares Beginners Chase16f · Heavy · 10 ran 2nd 6/1
14 Dec 15 Navan Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes Kerry Group E.B.F. Mares Novice Chase (Grade 3)17f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 25/1
29 May 15 Down Royal Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes Barclay Communications Mares Beginners Chase20f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 9/4F
16 May 15 Punchestown Run With Thebucket (GB)J: Alison Clarke Racing Again On 3rd June Flat Race16f · Good · 15 ran 13th 100/1
30 Apr 15 Punchestown Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes Orchid Transport Mares Novice Hurdle16f · Yielding · 11 ran 5th 25/1
31 Jan 15 Fairyhouse Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)18f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran PU 25/1
26 Dec 14 Limerick Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes O'Kelly Brothers Demolition Mares Handicap Hurdle16f · Heavy · 8 ran 1st 6/1
31 Oct 14 Down Royal Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes European Breeders Fund Lough Construction Ltd. Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)16f · Yielding · 7 ran 3rd 14/1
16 Oct 14 Punchestown Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes Grabel Mares Hurdle (Listed)18f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 40/1
23 Sep 14 Ballinrobe Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes Sponsors Day At Ballinrobe Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 1st 8/1
29 Aug 14 Down Royal Melbourne Lady (GB)J: Matthew Bowes Irwins Bakeries Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 3rd 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is P Fegan's strike rate?
P Fegan has won 3 of 51 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is P Fegan's Fair A/E?
1.38, from 51 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).