Matthew Bowes
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 60 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). Rode mostly for Patrick O Brady — 41% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Limerick (10.3%, n=39) and Kilbeggan (9.5%, n=42) — all clear of the rider's 5.1% baseline. It is weakest at Fairyhouse (0% over 33 rides) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 3.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −42.00 to a £1 stake over 123 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Patrick O Brady supplied 41% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (4.1%, A/E 0.80). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 59 rides, 5.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good to Soft going: Fair A/E 0.41 across 57 rides (1.8% strike, −50.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. Seasonally, the rider fired Aug–Sep.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 699 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 699 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 4 November 2018.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Matthew Bowes's strike rate?
- Matthew Bowes has won 33 of 649 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.1% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Matthew Bowes do best at?
- Limerick by strike rate: 4 wins from 39 rides (10.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Matthew Bowes ride most for?
- Patrick O Brady, with 268 rides since 2008 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (4.1%).
- What is Matthew Bowes's Fair A/E?
- 0.96, from 649 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.